Am I the only one getting confused by all of these models?

[George K]

Sweden: 600,000 Coronavirus Infections In Stockholm By May 1, Model Estimates

The Swedish Public Health Agency has collaborated on a new study that estimates one-third of all Stockholm residents will have been infected with COVID-19 by May 1. That amounts to approximately 600,000 people in Sweden’s capital city. Sweden’s official figures report only 15,322 positive cases so far in the whole of the country, suggesting significant numbers of “invisible” infections.

The astonishing numbers are in stark contrast to the latest World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that “no more than two to three percent” of the world’s population have been infected.

Sweden’s acting state epidemiologist Anders Wallenstein confirmed the findings during the latest daily press conference about the virus outbreak. It was also revealed that a further 185 coronavirus-related deaths have occurred in Sweden in the last 24 hours, bringing the total to 1,765.

The study indicates that for every confirmed case of COVID-19, a further 999 people are likely to have been infected with the virus without knowing it. The study used a model that includes the number of positive COVID-19 cases in Stockholm from February 17 to April 10, along with samples taken from infected people in the period March 27 to April 3.

[Horace]

Just pick the model that suits your own fears and motivations best and believe it. That's what everybody else does.

meanwhile, go Sweden! The world is watching.

[jon-nyc]

I haven’t seen any models that I like. But I’ve only spent quality time with the IHME model.

[Loki]

More complete article on Sweden

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/04/21/sweden-600000-coronavirus-infections-in-stockholm-by-may-1-model-estimates/#3f7cda4778d6

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publikationsarkiv/s/skattning-av-peakdag-och-antal-infekterade-i-covid-19-utbrottet-i-stockholms-lan-februari-april-2020/

[jon-nyc]

That’s the same article, no? The English one anyway.

Would love to see their model described in English

[Loki]

@jon-nyc said in Am I the only one getting confused by all of these models?:

That’s the same article, no? The English one anyway.

Would love to see their model described in English

I have a translate button on my iPad from the site. It did a good job.

[Loki]

Woops. Not for the PDF

[George K]

Sweden: Not so fast...

The Swedish Public Health Agency made international headlines yesterday by estimating that one-third of Stockholm residents would be infected with the coronavirus by May 1. Less than 24 hours later, the Agency has taken a dramatic u-turn and withdrawn the report.

The decision was announced via Twitter: "We have discovered an error in the report and so the authors are currently going through the material again. We will republish the report as soon as it is ready."