Lockdowns don't work?
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From Bhattacharya and Ioannidis (remember them?)
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13484
Abstract
Background and Aims
The most restrictive non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for controlling the spread of COVID‐19 are mandatory stay‐at‐home and business closures. Given the consequences of these policies, it is important to assess their effects. We evaluate the effects on epidemic case growth of more restrictive NPIs (mrNPIs), above and beyond those of less restrictive NPIs (lrNPIs).
Methods
We first estimate COVID‐19 case growth in relation to any NPI implementation in subnational regions of 10 countries: England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, South Korea, Sweden, and the US. Using first‐difference models with fixed effects, we isolate the effects of mrNPIs by subtracting the combined effects of lrNPIs and epidemic dynamics from all NPIs. We use case growth in Sweden and South Korea, two countries that did not implement mandatory stay‐at‐home and business closures, as comparison countries for the other 8 countries (16 total comparisons).
Results
Implementing any NPIs was associated with significant reductions in case growth in 9 out of 10 study countries, including South Korea and Sweden that implemented only lrNPIs (Spain had a non‐significant effect). After subtracting the epidemic and lrNPI effects, we find no clear, significant beneficial effect of mrNPIs on case growth in any country. In France, e.g., the effect of mrNPIs was +7% (95CI ‐5%‐19%) when compared with Sweden, and +13% (‐12%‐38%) when compared with South Korea (positive means pro‐contagion). The 95% confidence intervals excluded 30% declines in all 16 comparisons and 15% declines in 11/16 comparisons.
Conclusions
While small benefits cannot be excluded, we do not find significant benefits on case growth of more restrictive NPIs. Similar reductions in case growth may be achievable with less restrictive interventions.
A study published by researchers at Imperial College London in June found that some 3.1 million deaths had been averted due to lockdowns across Europe early on in the pandemic, Reuters reported. Additional research found that 530 million coronavirus infections had been avoided due to early lockdowns in China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, France and the United States, according to the news outlet.
Across the United States, mandatory lockdown orders have been a highly politicized issue.
Some Republican leaders, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves, have vehemently opposed state or nationwide closures to curb the spread of COVID-19. In Democratic states, including New York and California, lockdown orders have been a consistent part of the coronavirus response since March.
According to a poll released by Vox and Data for Progress on December 24, more than half of Americans said they would support a nationwide lockdown for one month.
But President-elect Joe Biden said in an interview in November that he had no intention of implementing a national shutdown when he takes office on January 20.
"I'm not going to shut down the economy. I'm going to shut down the virus," Biden said. "There is no circumstance which I can see that would require a total national shutdown. I think that would be counterproductive."
As of Thursday, the United States had recorded over 23 million cases, and 385,178 deaths since the start of the pandemic, according to Johns Hopkins University.
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“I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill
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“I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill
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@mik said in Lockdowns don't work?:
It is clear to anyone that limiting contact will limit spread.
The study I posted questions that.
Lockdowns vs responsible social distancing. I think their point is that you can't make the distinction between the effectiveness of either.
Basically, they're asking, "If I wear a mask, stay 6 feet away from others in a restaurant, is that just as good as closing the restaurant down?"
They seem to say, "Yeah, that's just as good."
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Make tables 15 feet apart and I might not be so skeptical. I always felt 6 feet was too little.
But most restaurants cannot live on the reduced throughput anyway. The smart ones are the ones who are figuring out how to attract the takeout market.
Honestly, we have not seen that many restaurants close around here. Folks are supporting them pretty well. Bars? I'm having a hard time seeing how necessary they are given that the nature of their business encourages poor adherence.
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If I had a dollar for everytime I heard before the election, that if Biden were elected, COVID would be over when he took office, I'd buy us all a bottle if (expensive) scotch.
Always remember, Operation Valkyrie was an act of sedition.
Warning: I post things that interest me. Read and comment at your own discretion. -
@jolly said in Lockdowns don't work?:
If I had a dollar for everytime I heard before the election, that if Biden were elected, COVID would be over when he took office, I'd buy us all a bottle if (expensive) scotch.
I would have been able to buy nothing.
Nobody I spoke to or heard from ever thought that the virus would be done in mid January.
In regard to lockdowns, if you go 100%, it can be effective. But I do think that the curve does change pretty quickly when you go below 100%. But, I am a big favor of masks, and that is why I would be concerned about going into a restaurant in the US to eat, but not be as concerned to go to a grocery store to buy stuff.
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@jolly said in Lockdowns don't work?:
If I had a dollar for everytime I heard before the election, that if Biden were elected, COVID would be over when he took office, I'd buy us all a bottle if (expensive) scotch.
Yeah, but it was the Republicans saying that. Not that the problem would actually be over, but that the media would decide it’s all better...
