30%?

[George K]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/30/dr-scott-gottlieb-30percent-of-us-may-get-covid-19-by-year-end.html

Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Monday that nearly one-third of U.S. residents could ultimately be infected by the coronavirus at the end of 2020.

The significant level of prior infections is likely to have implications for transmission of the virus in 2021, when there is the potential for Covid-19 vaccines to be deployed across the country, according to the former Food and Drug Administration commissioner.

“We’re going to probably have by the end of this year, 30% of the U.S. population infected,” Gottlieb said on “Squawk Box.” The country has roughly 330 million people. “You look at states like North Dakota and South Dakota, it’s probably 30%, 35%. Maybe as high as 50%,” he added.

There are roughly 13.4 million confirmed coronavirus infections in America so far this year, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. New daily U.S. cases recently reached single-day records around 200,000.

However, Gottlieb has stressed throughout the pandemic that the actual number of infections is likely higher than that because not everyone who contracts the virus is tested and ultimately diagnosed. In early November, for example, when the country’s daily cases were around 121,000, Gottlieb suggested the actual case number was much higher.

“We’re probably, at best, diagnosing 1 in 5 cases right now, maybe a little bit less than that, so this is at least half a million cases a day, probably more in terms of actual numbers of infection,” Gottlieb said Nov. 6.

The nation’s Covid-19 outbreak has intensified since those remarks. The U.S. seven-day average of new coronavirus cases is nearly 162,400, according to a CNBC analysis of Johns Hopkins data. While that’s down almost 5% compared with a week ago, inconsistent data reporting due to the Thanksgiving holiday makes the numbers challenging to interpret.

[Copper]

I think he is having some trouble with his math.

He points out that the 2 highest percentage of cases per population are ND & SD.

At the moment ND is #1 with 108,264 cases per million pop.
But they are just under 11%.
SD is #2 with 9.6%

Nowhere near 30% or 50%

I got the stats here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[Aqua Letifer]

@George-K said in 30%?:

Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Monday that nearly one-third of U.S. residents could ultimately be infected by the coronavirus at the end of 2020.

Back in June, I was thinking 30, maybe 40 before vaccine rollout.