Another look at excess deaths
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wrote on 27 Nov 2020, 13:07 last edited by
This is from Johns Hopkins, and shortly after it was published, it was taken down. However the "wayback machine" has a copy. It's long and I haven't had a chance to get into the weeds of their analyses. I have no idea who the author is. For those who are interested, here you go:
Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths.
These data analyses suggest that in contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States.
This comes as a shock to many people. How is it that the data lie so far from our perception?
To answer that question, Briand shifted her focus to the deaths per causes ranging from 2014 to 2020. There is a sudden increase in deaths in 2020 due to COVID-19. This is no surprise because COVID-19 emerged in the U.S. in early 2020, and thus COVID-19-related deaths increased drastically afterward.
Analysis of deaths per cause in 2018 revealed that the pattern of seasonal increase in the total number of deaths is a result of the rise in deaths by all causes, with the top three being heart disease, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia.
“This is true every year. Every year in the U.S. when we observe the seasonal ups and downs, we have an increase of deaths due to all causes,” Briand pointed out.
When Briand looked at the 2020 data during that seasonal period, COVID-19-related deaths exceeded deaths from heart diseases. This was highly unusual since heart disease has always prevailed as the leading cause of deaths. However, when taking a closer look at the death numbers, she noted something strange. As Briand compared the number of deaths per cause during that period in 2020 to 2018, she noticed that instead of the expected drastic increase across all causes, there was a significant decrease in deaths due to heart disease. Even more surprising, as seen in the graph below, this sudden decline in deaths is observed for all other causes.
The CDC classified all deaths that are related to COVID-19 simply as COVID-19 deaths. Even patients dying from other underlying diseases but are infected with COVID-19 count as COVID-19 deaths. This is likely the main explanation as to why COVID-19 deaths drastically increased while deaths by all other diseases experienced a significant decrease.
“All of this points to no evidence that COVID-19 created any excess deaths. Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers. We found no evidence to the contrary,” Briand concluded.
In an interview with The News-Letter, Briand addressed the question of whether COVID-19 deaths can be called misleading since the infection might have exacerbated and even led to deaths by other underlying diseases.
“If [the COVID-19 death toll] was not misleading at all, what we should have observed is an increased number of heart attacks and increased COVID-19 numbers. But a decreased number of heart attacks and all the other death causes doesn’t give us a choice but to point to some misclassification,” Briand replied.
In other words, the effect of COVID-19 on deaths in the U.S. is considered problematic only when it increases the total number of deaths or the true death burden by a significant amount in addition to the expected deaths by other causes. Since the crude number of total deaths by all causes before and after COVID-19 has stayed the same, one can hardly say, in Briand’s view, that COVID-19 deaths are concerning.
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wrote on 27 Nov 2020, 13:26 last edited by
The hard numbers should easily be available, no?
I would be unsurprised if the numbers evened out over 3 years, but shocked if it was this year alone...
OTOH, what would the numbers be like without the temporary shutdowns and restrictions?
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wrote on 27 Nov 2020, 13:30 last edited by
In short the conclusion seems to be 'they would have died anyway'. This seems obviously incorrect given the makeshift morgues and overrun ICUs we have seen. I suppose if you average it out across the US at that time where you had some hot spots and some relatively disease free places that might make some sense in that it might not be enough numbers to spike the nation's statistics. Yet.
Stay tuned.
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In short the conclusion seems to be 'they would have died anyway'. This seems obviously incorrect given the makeshift morgues and overrun ICUs we have seen. I suppose if you average it out across the US at that time where you had some hot spots and some relatively disease free places that might make some sense in that it might not be enough numbers to spike the nation's statistics. Yet.
Stay tuned.
wrote on 27 Nov 2020, 13:35 last edited by George K@Mik said in Another look at excess deaths:
if you average it out across the US at that time where you had some hot spots and some relatively disease free places that might make some sense
I think that's the point.
Also this:
there was a significant decrease in deaths due to heart disease. Even more surprising, as seen in the graph below, this sudden decline in deaths is observed for all other causes.
As others have said, it's how you count them. Dying of COVID should not be the same as dying with COVID.
Stay tuned.
I wonder if these numbers will hold up through the next several months, as things surge.
overrun ICUs
I wonder if that's not because people who would have died of other causes don't always get admitted to the ICU? IOW, if you're dying of CHF, or cancer, etc., you might not be in the ICU, but on a floor. COVID changed that because of the need for more intensive monitoring and therapy.
I dunno, but I'll stay tuned.
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wrote on 27 Nov 2020, 14:40 last edited by
@kluurs said in Another look at excess deaths:
I’ve seen a couple of studies showing the opposite including this one
There's a guy on Twitter who's based in the UK who follows this as well.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch
Here's his data from October:
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wrote on 27 Nov 2020, 14:43 last edited by
I think @jon-nyc posted something a while back that looked at weekly deaths in big cities (or maybe just New York) compare to what was happening now. Big increase when the two were compare.
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wrote on 27 Nov 2020, 14:44 last edited by Jolly
COVID is a vascular disease. It makes sense that in patients with existing vascular disease, it exacerbates an existing problem and tips a person over the edge.
Ergo, a decrease in heart disease deaths and a rise in COVID deaths. The hotspots should see a short term decrease in cardiac related deaths after they cool down. Unless lack if interventional cardiac care sjews that curve, also.
At least, that's my theory du jour...
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wrote on 27 Nov 2020, 14:44 last edited by
I think I think we might be seeing why John Hopkins took it off of the interwebz....
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wrote on 27 Nov 2020, 16:19 last edited by
@George-K said in Another look at excess deaths:
Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths.
These data analyses suggest that in contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States.In the second sentence, they shifted from "deaths of older" to "deaths".
The need for temporary morgues might be because the deaths came in bunches instead of being spread throughout the year.
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wrote on 27 Nov 2020, 16:22 last edited by Copper
The drama associated with covid has to be reduced so there will be no way Mr. Biden can be blamed for any unhappiness.
Mr. Biden must look good at all times, let's move covid to page 2, below the fold.
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@George-K said in Another look at excess deaths:
Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths.
These data analyses suggest that in contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States.In the second sentence, they shifted from "deaths of older" to "deaths".
The need for temporary morgues might be because the deaths came in bunches instead of being spread throughout the year.
wrote on 27 Nov 2020, 17:57 last edited by@Copper said in Another look at excess deaths:
@George-K said in Another look at excess deaths:
Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths.
These data analyses suggest that in contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States.In the second sentence, they shifted from "deaths of older" to "deaths".
The need for temporary morgues might be because the deaths came in bunches instead of being spread throughout the year.
And in highly concentrated places (hospital) versus all the other places people die.
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wrote on 27 Nov 2020, 18:35 last edited by George K
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wrote on 27 Nov 2020, 21:47 last edited by
The irony is that taking down the article is likely to do much more for the "Covid is nothing" brigade than publishing it would have.
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wrote on 27 Nov 2020, 22:07 last edited by
I didn't verify this data
It is from a comment on the page that originally showed the article and now points to a PDF version
Here is the pdf: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1iO0K75EZAF8dkNDkDmM3L4zNNY0X-Xw5/view
https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
Consider the following figures- US Total deaths by year per CDC:
2013: 2,596,993
2014: 2,626,418
2015: 2,712,630
2016: 2,744,248
2017: 2,813,503
2018: 2,839,205
2019: 2,855,000
2020: as of 11/14 total deaths= 2,512,880
At present the US is experiencing a 1.12% increase in overall mortality rates for 2020- not good- pandemicky numbers to be sure.
However, last year, 2019, there was also a 1.12% increase. Did we miss a pandemic in 2019?
But wait it’s even "scarier"- 2018 saw a 1.22% increase in mortality rates, 2017 saw a 1.24% increase, 2016 1.27% increase, 2015 1.27% increase, 2014 1.29% increase- all exceeding 2020’s increase in mortality rate- so does this mean we have had pandemics for the last 7 years?
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wrote on 27 Nov 2020, 22:09 last edited by
This is why they took the article down.
The article provided evidence that may be used to support the notion that we didn't have a lot of extra deaths due to covid.
This notion must not be allowed to spread.
Even if the statistics support it.
Is that it?
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I didn't verify this data
It is from a comment on the page that originally showed the article and now points to a PDF version
Here is the pdf: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1iO0K75EZAF8dkNDkDmM3L4zNNY0X-Xw5/view
https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
Consider the following figures- US Total deaths by year per CDC:
2013: 2,596,993
2014: 2,626,418
2015: 2,712,630
2016: 2,744,248
2017: 2,813,503
2018: 2,839,205
2019: 2,855,000
2020: as of 11/14 total deaths= 2,512,880
At present the US is experiencing a 1.12% increase in overall mortality rates for 2020- not good- pandemicky numbers to be sure.
However, last year, 2019, there was also a 1.12% increase. Did we miss a pandemic in 2019?
But wait it’s even "scarier"- 2018 saw a 1.22% increase in mortality rates, 2017 saw a 1.24% increase, 2016 1.27% increase, 2015 1.27% increase, 2014 1.29% increase- all exceeding 2020’s increase in mortality rate- so does this mean we have had pandemics for the last 7 years?
wrote on 27 Nov 2020, 22:50 last edited by@Copper said in Another look at excess deaths:
I didn't verify this data
It is from a comment on the page that originally showed the article and now points to a PDF version
Here is the pdf: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1iO0K75EZAF8dkNDkDmM3L4zNNY0X-Xw5/view
https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
Consider the following figures- US Total deaths by year per CDC:
2013: 2,596,993
2014: 2,626,418
2015: 2,712,630
2016: 2,744,248
2017: 2,813,503
2018: 2,839,205
2019: 2,855,000
2020: as of 11/14 total deaths= 2,512,880
At present the US is experiencing a 1.12% increase in overall mortality rates for 2020- not good- pandemicky numbers to be sure.
However, last year, 2019, there was also a 1.12% increase. Did we miss a pandemic in 2019?
But wait it’s even "scarier"- 2018 saw a 1.22% increase in mortality rates, 2017 saw a 1.24% increase, 2016 1.27% increase, 2015 1.27% increase, 2014 1.29% increase- all exceeding 2020’s increase in mortality rate- so does this mean we have had pandemics for the last 7 years?
Assuming these are correct numbers somebody needs to explain them.
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wrote on 27 Nov 2020, 23:50 last edited by
The numbers I've seen from other countries certainly don't agree with these. I believe the UK is 15% above average. I don't really see why the US would be any different.
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The numbers I've seen from other countries certainly don't agree with these. I believe the UK is 15% above average. I don't really see why the US would be any different.
wrote on 28 Nov 2020, 02:52 last edited by@Doctor-Phibes said in Another look at excess deaths:
The numbers I've seen from other countries certainly don't agree with these. I believe the UK is 15% above average. I don't really see why the US would be any different.
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate
image url)https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/death-rate
image url) -
wrote on 29 Nov 2020, 15:32 last edited by
The author of the pulled article responds to JHU's action:
Today, on November 27th, The News-Letter officially posted their reason for retracting the article, stating inaccuracies in the analysis. I am frustrated at the explanation, and I think it is disrespectful to Dr. Briand’s hard work putting data together and doing an honest analysis. If her analysis was to be contradicted, then at least an equal-level analysis should be done to provide more data and thus a new conclusion. Dr. Briand and her work deserve such respect.
I have attached the links for the article, The News-Letters’ explanation for taking down the article, and Dr. Genevieve Briand’s event recording down below. Please take a look to get the full message. Thank you very much for everyone’s interest in this matter, and I respect all opinions.
Article "A Closer Look at U.S. Deaths due to COVID-19": https://web.archive.org/web/20201126163323/https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
Editors' explanation for the retraction: https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
Dr. Genevieve Briand's event video:
Link to video
