Another look at excess deaths
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The hard numbers should easily be available, no?
I would be unsurprised if the numbers evened out over 3 years, but shocked if it was this year alone...
OTOH, what would the numbers be like without the temporary shutdowns and restrictions?
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In short the conclusion seems to be 'they would have died anyway'. This seems obviously incorrect given the makeshift morgues and overrun ICUs we have seen. I suppose if you average it out across the US at that time where you had some hot spots and some relatively disease free places that might make some sense in that it might not be enough numbers to spike the nation's statistics. Yet.
Stay tuned.
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In short the conclusion seems to be 'they would have died anyway'. This seems obviously incorrect given the makeshift morgues and overrun ICUs we have seen. I suppose if you average it out across the US at that time where you had some hot spots and some relatively disease free places that might make some sense in that it might not be enough numbers to spike the nation's statistics. Yet.
Stay tuned.
@Mik said in Another look at excess deaths:
if you average it out across the US at that time where you had some hot spots and some relatively disease free places that might make some sense
I think that's the point.
Also this:
there was a significant decrease in deaths due to heart disease. Even more surprising, as seen in the graph below, this sudden decline in deaths is observed for all other causes.
As others have said, it's how you count them. Dying of COVID should not be the same as dying with COVID.
Stay tuned.
I wonder if these numbers will hold up through the next several months, as things surge.
overrun ICUs
I wonder if that's not because people who would have died of other causes don't always get admitted to the ICU? IOW, if you're dying of CHF, or cancer, etc., you might not be in the ICU, but on a floor. COVID changed that because of the need for more intensive monitoring and therapy.
I dunno, but I'll stay tuned.
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@kluurs said in Another look at excess deaths:
I’ve seen a couple of studies showing the opposite including this one
There's a guy on Twitter who's based in the UK who follows this as well.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch
Here's his data from October:
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I think @jon-nyc posted something a while back that looked at weekly deaths in big cities (or maybe just New York) compare to what was happening now. Big increase when the two were compare.
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COVID is a vascular disease. It makes sense that in patients with existing vascular disease, it exacerbates an existing problem and tips a person over the edge.
Ergo, a decrease in heart disease deaths and a rise in COVID deaths. The hotspots should see a short term decrease in cardiac related deaths after they cool down. Unless lack if interventional cardiac care sjews that curve, also.
At least, that's my theory du jour...
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I think I think we might be seeing why John Hopkins took it off of the interwebz....
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@George-K said in Another look at excess deaths:
Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths.
These data analyses suggest that in contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States.In the second sentence, they shifted from "deaths of older" to "deaths".
The need for temporary morgues might be because the deaths came in bunches instead of being spread throughout the year.
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@George-K said in Another look at excess deaths:
Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths.
These data analyses suggest that in contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States.In the second sentence, they shifted from "deaths of older" to "deaths".
The need for temporary morgues might be because the deaths came in bunches instead of being spread throughout the year.
@Copper said in Another look at excess deaths:
@George-K said in Another look at excess deaths:
Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths.
These data analyses suggest that in contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States.In the second sentence, they shifted from "deaths of older" to "deaths".
The need for temporary morgues might be because the deaths came in bunches instead of being spread throughout the year.
And in highly concentrated places (hospital) versus all the other places people die.
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The irony is that taking down the article is likely to do much more for the "Covid is nothing" brigade than publishing it would have.
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I didn't verify this data
It is from a comment on the page that originally showed the article and now points to a PDF version
Here is the pdf: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1iO0K75EZAF8dkNDkDmM3L4zNNY0X-Xw5/view
https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
Consider the following figures- US Total deaths by year per CDC:
2013: 2,596,993
2014: 2,626,418
2015: 2,712,630
2016: 2,744,248
2017: 2,813,503
2018: 2,839,205
2019: 2,855,000
2020: as of 11/14 total deaths= 2,512,880
At present the US is experiencing a 1.12% increase in overall mortality rates for 2020- not good- pandemicky numbers to be sure.
However, last year, 2019, there was also a 1.12% increase. Did we miss a pandemic in 2019?
But wait it’s even "scarier"- 2018 saw a 1.22% increase in mortality rates, 2017 saw a 1.24% increase, 2016 1.27% increase, 2015 1.27% increase, 2014 1.29% increase- all exceeding 2020’s increase in mortality rate- so does this mean we have had pandemics for the last 7 years?
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I didn't verify this data
It is from a comment on the page that originally showed the article and now points to a PDF version
Here is the pdf: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1iO0K75EZAF8dkNDkDmM3L4zNNY0X-Xw5/view
https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
Consider the following figures- US Total deaths by year per CDC:
2013: 2,596,993
2014: 2,626,418
2015: 2,712,630
2016: 2,744,248
2017: 2,813,503
2018: 2,839,205
2019: 2,855,000
2020: as of 11/14 total deaths= 2,512,880
At present the US is experiencing a 1.12% increase in overall mortality rates for 2020- not good- pandemicky numbers to be sure.
However, last year, 2019, there was also a 1.12% increase. Did we miss a pandemic in 2019?
But wait it’s even "scarier"- 2018 saw a 1.22% increase in mortality rates, 2017 saw a 1.24% increase, 2016 1.27% increase, 2015 1.27% increase, 2014 1.29% increase- all exceeding 2020’s increase in mortality rate- so does this mean we have had pandemics for the last 7 years?
@Copper said in Another look at excess deaths:
I didn't verify this data
It is from a comment on the page that originally showed the article and now points to a PDF version
Here is the pdf: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1iO0K75EZAF8dkNDkDmM3L4zNNY0X-Xw5/view
https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
Consider the following figures- US Total deaths by year per CDC:
2013: 2,596,993
2014: 2,626,418
2015: 2,712,630
2016: 2,744,248
2017: 2,813,503
2018: 2,839,205
2019: 2,855,000
2020: as of 11/14 total deaths= 2,512,880
At present the US is experiencing a 1.12% increase in overall mortality rates for 2020- not good- pandemicky numbers to be sure.
However, last year, 2019, there was also a 1.12% increase. Did we miss a pandemic in 2019?
But wait it’s even "scarier"- 2018 saw a 1.22% increase in mortality rates, 2017 saw a 1.24% increase, 2016 1.27% increase, 2015 1.27% increase, 2014 1.29% increase- all exceeding 2020’s increase in mortality rate- so does this mean we have had pandemics for the last 7 years?
Assuming these are correct numbers somebody needs to explain them.
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The numbers I've seen from other countries certainly don't agree with these. I believe the UK is 15% above average. I don't really see why the US would be any different.
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The numbers I've seen from other countries certainly don't agree with these. I believe the UK is 15% above average. I don't really see why the US would be any different.
@Doctor-Phibes said in Another look at excess deaths:
The numbers I've seen from other countries certainly don't agree with these. I believe the UK is 15% above average. I don't really see why the US would be any different.
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate
image url)https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/death-rate
image url) -
The author of the pulled article responds to JHU's action:
Today, on November 27th, The News-Letter officially posted their reason for retracting the article, stating inaccuracies in the analysis. I am frustrated at the explanation, and I think it is disrespectful to Dr. Briand’s hard work putting data together and doing an honest analysis. If her analysis was to be contradicted, then at least an equal-level analysis should be done to provide more data and thus a new conclusion. Dr. Briand and her work deserve such respect.
I have attached the links for the article, The News-Letters’ explanation for taking down the article, and Dr. Genevieve Briand’s event recording down below. Please take a look to get the full message. Thank you very much for everyone’s interest in this matter, and I respect all opinions.
Article "A Closer Look at U.S. Deaths due to COVID-19": https://web.archive.org/web/20201126163323/https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
Editors' explanation for the retraction: https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
Dr. Genevieve Briand's event video:
Link to video
