1932

[jon-nyc]

The last time a sitting president was ousted in an election without a significant 3rd party challenger.

[LuFins Dad]

Who was Carter/Reagan’s?

[LuFins Dad]

I thought this was going to be a thread about the average first birthday of the Biden voter in Michigan. My mistake, it was actually 1902.

[jon-nyc]

Do they say how the guy voted?

Or rather, how someone voted him?

[jon-nyc]

@LuFins-Dad said in 1932:

Who was Carter/Reagan’s?

John Anderson

[jon-nyc]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_United_States_presidential_election

[LuFins Dad]

Anderson was a Republiican that pulled votes from Reagan. He had no significant impact on the election Except for possibly making Reagan’s landslide a little smaller.

[jon-nyc]

Oddly he did well among intellectual and student types too.

[Mik]

I voted for Anderson in 80, mostly because I supported the idea of an independent candidacy.

[Loki]

I remember when candidates wouldn’t even put their party logo on their re-election efforts. So the parties fixed that existential threat and combined with how social media accelerated us vs them it is no surprise there is no oxygen for a third party.

[LuFins Dad]

At any rate, he pulled a large number of votes for an independent, but had 0 impact on the actual election itself. I wouldn’t call that significant.

[Doctor Phibes]

Well I was certainly pulling for Jorgensen, as I indicated last week.

[jon-nyc]

Pulling your johnson doesn’t count.

[jon-nyc]

@LuFins-Dad said in 1932:

At any rate, he pulled a large number of votes for an independent, but had 0 impact on the actual election itself. I wouldn’t call that significant.

Ok, that's fair. Let me reframe it then.

Only three men in the last century have dethroned a sitting president without significant 3rd party help:

You like that better?

[LuFins Dad]

But Biden had significant 3rd party help. Without the JJo, Trump wins several of those states.

[Doctor Phibes]

@LuFins-Dad said in 1932:

But Biden had significant 3rd party help. Without the JJo, Trump wins several of those states.

He had quite a bit of 2nd party help, too. Without Donald Trump, you think Biden could have won this?

[jon-nyc]

@LuFins-Dad That would be a very hard case to make.

[A Former User]

@Doctor-Phibes said in 1932:

@LuFins-Dad said in 1932:

But Biden had significant 3rd party help. Without the JJo, Trump wins several of those states.

He had quite a bit of 2nd party help, too. Without Donald Trump, you think Biden could have won this?

not a chance

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in 1932:

@LuFins-Dad That would be a very hard case to make.

Wisconsin, Georgia, AZ, and likely PA will be within her vote totals, and I would argue that she affected the outcome in those states more than Perot did in 1992. Half of Perot’s supporters were Democrats despite his policies being more closely aligned to the Republicans so the votes he took would have been split evenly. Very few of Jorgensen’s supporters would have gone to Biden, maybe a few, and some would have just not voted, but the majority would have broken in Donald’s direction. At the very least, everybody we pull be shitting bricks during the recounts...

[jon-nyc]

@LuFins-Dad See my calcs in the other thread.