104,000

[jon-nyc]

Killer Joe has slayed the Orange Beast.

Actually the American people fired him.

But yes, this will matter more and more because the case count is getting crazy and winter isn't even here yet.

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in 104,000:

Killer Joe has slayed the Orange Beast.

Actually the American people fired him.

But yes, this will matter more and more because the case count is getting crazy and winter isn't even here yet.

Dude, it's gone away. Joe has a plan. All is right in the universe.

Don't worry, be happy.

[Copper]

Get as many cases as possible over the next 2 months.

This will make it easier for Mr. Biden to show a reduction.

[jon-nyc]

That's likely to happen if history is any guide.

[jon-nyc]

It would be a nice consolation prize for Trump to be able to announce a vaccine.

Hopefully the happens in December or January.

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in 104,000:

That's likely to happen if history is any guide.

Be careful.

Be vewy,vewy careful.

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in 104,000:

It would be a nice consolation prize for Trump to be able to announce a vaccine.

Hopefully the happens in December or January.

Would look good on his 2024 campaign literature.

[jon-nyc]

Holy shit 132k new cases yesterday.

[George K]

@jon-nyc said in 104,000:

Holy shit 132k new cases yesterday.

37K new cases in Italy
60K in France
24K in Germany
24K in the UK

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in 104,000:

Holy shit 132k new cases yesterday.

Dude, Biden is appointing a task force. They meet Monday.

Link to video

[jon-nyc]

This wave is likely to crest and recede before President-Elect Biden takes over.

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in 104,000:

This wave is likely to crest and recede before President-Elect Biden takes over.

Thank God for Trump, eh?

[George K]

[jon-nyc]

What I find disconcerting about these successive waves is each one is broader than the last.

The first one was basically NY. (simplifying a bit).

The second was sun-belt driven.

This one seems more evenly distributed, and more nation wide.

[LuFins Dad]

There’s no question the daily deaths are going to increase, that just follows from the hospitalizations by about two weeks. The real question will be by how much.

[jon-nyc]

The seven day average of cases is double what we saw in August. Might the deaths double from what we saw in August? Not an unreasonable assumption unless you think our standards of care have improved and/or the virus has mutated since August.

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in 104,000:

The seven day average of cases is double what we saw in August. Might the deaths double from what we saw in August? Not an unreasonable assumption unless you think our standards of care have improved and/or the virus has mutated since August.

Hospitalizations are the numbers we want to watch as a predictive indicator for deaths, not total case counts. Testing has been increasing dramatically in an attempt to catch more asymptomatic cases to prevent spread. A higher percentage of these new cases will be asymptomatic or mild. We also need to remember there is about a 2 week latency from positive tests to hospitalizations and another 2 weeks to fatalities. So look at the case counts from October 15th and the Hospitalizations from the 29th to compare with today’s death totals..

[jon-nyc]

Hospitalizations are at an all-time high.

[LuFins Dad]

Yes, as was shown on George's graph and tacitly acknowledged in my reply that deaths would likely increase within 2 weeks...

[LuFins Dad]

The interesting thing is that the hospitalization wave started around 6 weeks ago, so we should have seen a corresponding increase in deaths, but we haven’t to this point.

I have no doubt that we will see an increase, but am thinking it will be well less than proportionate to the hospitalization rate and far less than the increase in case counts.