Calling the States
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Trafalgar’s numbers are looking on point across the board.
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What are they?
They did FL well.
They only have a 75% accuracy rate in calling elections, which is why Nate rates them a C- (IIRC).
@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:
What are they?
They did FL well.
They only have a 75% accuracy rate in calling elections, which is why Nate rates them a C- (IIRC).
If Trump pulls this out, a lot of pollsters, including Nate, are going to look like idiots.
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Don’t know... But their numbers matched in 16 and they seem to be matching up this time pretty well...
The Brad
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I have found that I have been more interested in the House and Senate races. So far the GOP is doing really well it looks like. Collins, McConnell and Graham are all winners, and those were seats the Dems spent a LOT of money on. In House races they poured money in my district and the one next to it and are still losing.
How are things going in your states' house/senate races?
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But my question stands -
Does Trafalgar really have the special sauce? Or do they lean Republican so if you only look at how they did during republican upsets they look prescient?
@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:
But my question stands -
Does Trafalgar really have the special sauce? Or do they lean Republican so if you only look at how they did during republican upsets they look prescient?
GOP for sure but if Trump wins can you ever read Nate Silver with a straight face again? It would be like reading the manifesto of a dangerous mind.
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Don’t know... But their numbers matched in 16 and they seem to be matching up this time pretty well...
@LuFins-Dad said in Calling the States:
Don’t know... But their numbers matched in 16 and they seem to be matching up this time pretty well...
What are their numbers? Other than FL.
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@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:
But my question stands -
Does Trafalgar really have the special sauce? Or do they lean Republican so if you only look at how they did during republican upsets they look prescient?
GOP for sure but if Trump wins can you ever read Nate Silver with a straight face again? It would be like reading the manifesto of a dangerous mind.
@Loki said in Calling the States:
@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:
But my question stands -
Does Trafalgar really have the special sauce? Or do they lean Republican so if you only look at how they did during republican upsets they look prescient?
GOP for sure but if Trump wins can you ever read Nate Silver with a straight face again? It would be like reading the manifesto of a dangerous mind.
Obviously they lean GOP. But is that all they got? Or do they do it intelligently so there are not too many false positives? Nate says they've got a 75% record which is kind of poor.
Also, see my reply to Jolly.
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@Loki said in Calling the States:
@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:
But my question stands -
Does Trafalgar really have the special sauce? Or do they lean Republican so if you only look at how they did during republican upsets they look prescient?
GOP for sure but if Trump wins can you ever read Nate Silver with a straight face again? It would be like reading the manifesto of a dangerous mind.
Obviously they lean GOP. But is that all they got? Or do they do it intelligently so there are not too many false positives? Nate says they've got a 75% record which is kind of poor.
Also, see my reply to Jolly.
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@Jolly said in Calling the States:
@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:
I'm calling it for Trump.
I think you're too early.
You're right. They've always said election night would look good for Trump then mail in ballots would push things the other way.
We won't really know what happened for a day or two at least. It could come down to those little orphan districts in NE and ME.
