Calling the States
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 03:30 last edited by jon-nyc 11 Apr 2020, 03:31
This is from 538 liveblog.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 03:31 last edited by
Ok, I get VA now. They didn’t start with their absentee votes, they reported today’s results. They are about to dump the absentee votes now.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 03:31 last edited by
Ah, that explains it.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 03:32 last edited by
@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:
This is from 538 liveblog.
You better believe there are two armies of lawyers driving to Philadelphia at this very moment.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 03:34 last edited by
It's already in the courts.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 03:34 last edited by
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 03:37 last edited by
From James Lindsey:
"Looks like the Latino vote went for Trump, and the Latinx vote went for Biden"
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 03:40 last edited by
Trafalgar’s numbers are looking on point across the board.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 03:46 last edited by jon-nyc 11 Apr 2020, 03:46
What are they?
They did FL well.
They only have a 75% accuracy rate in calling elections, which is why Nate rates them a C- (IIRC).
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 03:52 last edited by
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What are they?
They did FL well.
They only have a 75% accuracy rate in calling elections, which is why Nate rates them a C- (IIRC).
wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 03:54 last edited by@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:
What are they?
They did FL well.
They only have a 75% accuracy rate in calling elections, which is why Nate rates them a C- (IIRC).
If Trump pulls this out, a lot of pollsters, including Nate, are going to look like idiots.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 03:55 last edited by
Nate isn't a pollster. He just builds models based on polls.
But people won't make that distinction and think he's an idiot anyway.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 03:56 last edited by
But my question stands -
Does Trafalgar really have the special sauce? Or do they lean Republican so if you only look at how they did during republican upsets they look prescient?
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 03:59 last edited by
Don’t know... But their numbers matched in 16 and they seem to be matching up this time pretty well...
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 04:08 last edited by
I have found that I have been more interested in the House and Senate races. So far the GOP is doing really well it looks like. Collins, McConnell and Graham are all winners, and those were seats the Dems spent a LOT of money on. In House races they poured money in my district and the one next to it and are still losing.
How are things going in your states' house/senate races?
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But my question stands -
Does Trafalgar really have the special sauce? Or do they lean Republican so if you only look at how they did during republican upsets they look prescient?
wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 04:11 last edited by Loki 11 Apr 2020, 04:11@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:
But my question stands -
Does Trafalgar really have the special sauce? Or do they lean Republican so if you only look at how they did during republican upsets they look prescient?
GOP for sure but if Trump wins can you ever read Nate Silver with a straight face again? It would be like reading the manifesto of a dangerous mind.
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Don’t know... But their numbers matched in 16 and they seem to be matching up this time pretty well...
wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 04:14 last edited by@LuFins-Dad said in Calling the States:
Don’t know... But their numbers matched in 16 and they seem to be matching up this time pretty well...
What are their numbers? Other than FL.
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@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:
But my question stands -
Does Trafalgar really have the special sauce? Or do they lean Republican so if you only look at how they did during republican upsets they look prescient?
GOP for sure but if Trump wins can you ever read Nate Silver with a straight face again? It would be like reading the manifesto of a dangerous mind.
wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 04:14 last edited by jon-nyc 11 Apr 2020, 04:23@Loki said in Calling the States:
@jon-nyc said in Calling the States:
But my question stands -
Does Trafalgar really have the special sauce? Or do they lean Republican so if you only look at how they did during republican upsets they look prescient?
GOP for sure but if Trump wins can you ever read Nate Silver with a straight face again? It would be like reading the manifesto of a dangerous mind.
Obviously they lean GOP. But is that all they got? Or do they do it intelligently so there are not too many false positives? Nate says they've got a 75% record which is kind of poor.
Also, see my reply to Jolly.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 04:24 last edited by
Looks like Fox is disabling some of their odd meters.
Major fail overall for them.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 04:25 last edited by
Fox just called AZ for Biden. that's interesting
