Final betting odds
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wrote on 3 Nov 2020, 12:39 last edited by jon-nyc 11 Mar 2020, 12:41
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wrote on 3 Nov 2020, 12:41 last edited by
60/40. That’s tighter than Nate’s probabilistic model.
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wrote on 3 Nov 2020, 13:35 last edited by
At this point it’s about what happens. If Florida and N.C, both who report early come in under the Trump win column then it’s worth keeping the TV on for Arizona. Neither Arizona or N.C. are perfect because if it is super close then they have to wait for some ballots to be counted. But if it looks like Trump is ahead then it comes down to PA. And if that is close then it’s days.
Nate likely has the odds so far for Biden in PA that is what gives it 90/10.
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wrote on 3 Nov 2020, 14:51 last edited by
Please - not another Bush/Gore...
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wrote on 3 Nov 2020, 15:37 last edited by
In the last four hours, 71% of money wagered on the 2020 US election was on Trump, the site said — which the site’s head of marketing, Sam Eaton, called a “remarkable” swing.
“The 2020 election is following a very similar betting pattern to the one we witnessed back in 2016. The closer we got to Election Day, the more money came for Donald Trump,” Eaton said.
More revealing about gamblers than swing in election odds.
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wrote on 3 Nov 2020, 15:40 last edited by
@kluurs said in Final betting odds:
Please - not another Bush/Gore...
Please another Bush/Gore. I would like an awful lot of eyeballs going over all of these mail in votes.
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wrote on 3 Nov 2020, 15:43 last edited by
The US stock market is up around 2% this morning.
How's that for betting odds? -
wrote on 3 Nov 2020, 17:14 last edited by
A dem sweep guarantees a bigger stimulus.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 19:11 last edited by
This morning we'er looking at prospects for (1) a drawn out electoral results and (2) a split government that probably lessens the probability of the economy getting a "big" stimulus package.
Still, the US stock market goes up 2%~4% depending on which major indices you look at.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 19:17 last edited by Loki 11 Apr 2020, 19:17
Divided government is why the stock market is up. Biden has limited ways of making bad things happen.
There are big wins for everyone in this election. No one can rub anyone’s nose in do-do. Trump is out but many GOP don’t care now that the Senate is GOP and no one can say Americans weighed in with a mandate. No statement election, no sweep no blue tide. It’s a great day in America.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 19:28 last edited by jon-nyc 11 Apr 2020, 19:28
Nope. We can all rub Trump’s nose in it.
I agree it’s a great day.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 19:44 last edited by
@jon-nyc said in Final betting odds:
Nope. We can all rub Trump’s nose in it.
I agree it’s a great day.
No, the princesses can rub Trump's nose in it. The rest of us are business as usual.
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@jon-nyc said in Final betting odds:
Nope. We can all rub Trump’s nose in it.
I agree it’s a great day.
No, the princesses can rub Trump's nose in it. The rest of us are business as usual.
wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 21:10 last edited by xenon 11 Apr 2020, 21:11@Horace said in Final betting odds:
@jon-nyc said in Final betting odds:
Nope. We can all rub Trump’s nose in it.
I agree it’s a great day.
No, the princesses can rub Trump's nose in it. The rest of us are business as usual.
I'm just glad we won't have to hear about him anymore. I'm so thoroughly sick of him dominating the news with inane shit. I can move on to being sick of other things.
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@Horace said in Final betting odds:
@jon-nyc said in Final betting odds:
Nope. We can all rub Trump’s nose in it.
I agree it’s a great day.
No, the princesses can rub Trump's nose in it. The rest of us are business as usual.
I'm just glad we won't have to hear about him anymore. I'm so thoroughly sick of him dominating the news with inane shit. I can move on to being sick of other things.
wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 21:11 last edited by@xenon said in Final betting odds:
@Horace said in Final betting odds:
@jon-nyc said in Final betting odds:
Nope. We can all rub Trump’s nose in it.
I agree it’s a great day.
No, the princesses can rub Trump's nose in it. The rest of us are business as usual.
I'm just glad we won't have to hear about him anymore.
Good luck with that. He's going to be incessant.
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Divided government is why the stock market is up. Biden has limited ways of making bad things happen.
There are big wins for everyone in this election. No one can rub anyone’s nose in do-do. Trump is out but many GOP don’t care now that the Senate is GOP and no one can say Americans weighed in with a mandate. No statement election, no sweep no blue tide. It’s a great day in America.
wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 21:11 last edited by@Loki said in Final betting odds:
Trump is out but many GOP don’t care now that the Senate is GOP and no one can say Americans weighed in with a mandate. No statement election, no sweep no blue tide. It’s a great day in America.
Also, the popular vote is really promising. No sweeping majority there. Makes me very optimistic about the next 2-4 years.
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@Loki said in Final betting odds:
Trump is out but many GOP don’t care now that the Senate is GOP and no one can say Americans weighed in with a mandate. No statement election, no sweep no blue tide. It’s a great day in America.
Also, the popular vote is really promising. No sweeping majority there. Makes me very optimistic about the next 2-4 years.
wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 21:14 last edited by@Aqua-Letifer said in Final betting odds:
Makes me very optimistic about the next 2-4 years.
OK, who are you, and where did you hide Aqua's body?
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 21:16 last edited by
Aqua is the rare person who can actually be convinced politically. It's an impressive thing. We here on TNCR had little to do with it. He observed the world.
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@Aqua-Letifer said in Final betting odds:
Makes me very optimistic about the next 2-4 years.
OK, who are you, and where did you hide Aqua's body?
wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 21:30 last edited by@Doctor-Phibes said in Final betting odds:
@Aqua-Letifer said in Final betting odds:
Makes me very optimistic about the next 2-4 years.
OK, who are you, and where did you hide Aqua's body?
I told you the tea freaking works!
@Horace Maybe so, but you'll never, ever convince me Hex Blade warlocks aren't broken. I'm still unwavering about the important stuff that has a more direct impact on my life.
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wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 22:07 last edited by
People betting their own cash are giving Biden better odds of taking GA than they give Trump in PA.
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@Horace said in Final betting odds:
@jon-nyc said in Final betting odds:
Nope. We can all rub Trump’s nose in it.
I agree it’s a great day.
No, the princesses can rub Trump's nose in it. The rest of us are business as usual.
I'm just glad we won't have to hear about him anymore. I'm so thoroughly sick of him dominating the news with inane shit. I can move on to being sick of other things.
wrote on 4 Nov 2020, 22:12 last edited by@xenon said in Final betting odds:
@Horace said in Final betting odds:
@jon-nyc said in Final betting odds:
Nope. We can all rub Trump’s nose in it.
I agree it’s a great day.
No, the princesses can rub Trump's nose in it. The rest of us are business as usual.
I'm just glad we won't have to hear about him anymore. I'm so thoroughly sick of him dominating the news with inane shit. I can move on to being sick of other things.
He may go back to his original plan, had he lost in 2016, which is to establish his own network. He's not going to lose his Twitter followers. He just demonstrated his ability in media. While he lacks the finesse of a JFK or Reagan, his audience gets him and is energized by him in ways that even a Reagan or JFK might not be able to duplicate.