Puzzle Time - Baseball edition (not hard)

[jon-nyc]

Every year, the New York Earlies and the California Lates face off in a series of baseball games, the winner being the first to win four games. The teams are evenly matched but each has a small edge (say, a 51% chance of winning) when playing at home.

Every year, the first three games are played in New York, the rest in California.

Which team has the advantage?

And what are their odds of winning the series?

[taiwan_girl]

||California by just a slight amount.

For New York (out of a 7 total chances)
(0.51)x3 + (0.49)x4 = 3.49

For California
(0.49)x3 + (0.51)x4 = 3.51||

[jon-nyc]

Well you’re only looking at the possibility of a full seven games being played.

Remember either team could sweep in 4, or win it in 5 or 6 also.

[taiwan_girl]

@jon-nyc said in Puzzle Time - Baseball edition (not hard):

Well you’re only looking at the possibility of a full seven games being played.

Remember either team could sweep in 4, or win it in 5 or 6 also.

Good point. I will re-think.

[Klaus]

With regard to which team has the advantage, I don't think it makes a difference whether the edge is 51% or 100%, so one can just as well calculate with 100%...

[jon-nyc]

The home field advantage switches part way through. Plus the second part of the question...l

[Klaus]

||
Really?
This is what I get. Maybe I screwed up; only spent two minutes or so on this.

NY 49.687%
CA 50.313%

||

[jon-nyc]

That's what I got too.

[bachophile]

Klaus there is one thing you didn’t take into account.

New Yorkers would never lose to some wimpie alfalfa eating California team.

Call it the Big Apple advantage.

[Doctor Phibes]

@bachophile said in Puzzle Time - Baseball edition (not hard):

Klaus there is one thing you didn’t take into account.

New Yorkers would never lose to some wimpie alfalfa eating California team.

Call it the Big Apple advantage.

Plus, the New Yorkers will cheat.