Moody Analytics Macro-economic analysis of election

[taiwan_girl]

Interesting report analysis of the economic impact of who wins the upcoming election.

Some things I thought interesting

*Chart 1: 2020 Election Scenarios
Ordered from most to least likely

Biden + Republican Senate Democratic House
40% probability
It would be challenging for Biden and Democrats to implement an agenda.
We would see continued use of executive orders as well as continued congressional stagnation.
Some chance legislation that includes both deficit- financed government spending increases and tax cuts would get through.

Trump + Republican Senate Democratic House
35% probability
Status quo - we would see more of the same.
President Trump would continue to confront China and other trading partners through higher tariffs and other trade and investment restrictions.
Trump would also double-down on his restrictive foreign immigration policy.

Biden + Democratic Senate Democratic House
20% probability
Biden’s agenda and broader Democratic agenda would have more steam, but the filibuster rule would limit their reach. Moderate Democrats would gain power as their vote would be essential for passage.
Filibuster rule remains in place with exceptions including budget reconciliation process (used for 2017 tax bill and Affordable care Act) and some judicial and other appointments.

Trump + Republican Senate Republican House
5% probability
Trump’s aggressive tax cut and de- regulatory policy agenda would be re- invigorated. The filibuster rule would be the only constraint although this would be in jeopardy.*

(NOTE: the one possibility they did not look at is the one I think will happen. President Trump + Democrat Senate + Democrat House)

If the numbers are "crunched" from the tables they did, it comes out like this:

Of course, they dont know any more than probably you and I and others on this website, but an interesting perspective.

Here is the full report for the background

Moody Analytics Macro Economic Analysis on Election