The end of restaurants

[George K]

Well, yeah. Of course.

https://nypost.com/2020/09/21/nycs-restaurants-fear-25-indoor-cap-means-armageddon/

"If outdoor dining ends and we are only able to offer indoor dining at 25 percent, we will end up going out of business. This is Armageddon for the restaurant industry,” said Nahid Ahmed, co-owner of Luthun, a small, tasting-menu-only restaurant in the East Village.

“We cannot get through the winter with only 25 percent unless there is some sort of government assistance.”

These are not the cries of Chicken Little, said restaurant consultant Don Evans, who broke the crisis down by the numbers.

High-end restaurants, he said, spend most of their money on payroll, around 33 percent. Food and beverage takes another 33 percent. The rest of the expenses might include 10 percent on rent; 10 percent on insurance and utilities; and 14 percent on “other” expenses, including linens, garbage, sanitation and paying outside apps like OpenTable.

[Mik]

Oh, it's already a slaughter. Restaurants here are going out right and left. Some are trying to adapt and hang on but it is not easy. I suspect many will cut down menus and personnel drastically.

A lot of value is being destroyed, and much of it is individuals who have their life savings invested.

[George K]

I can recall reading that 90% of all restaurants go under in 5 years.

Now, it's much, much worse.

[Jolly]

Cookie-cutter corporate stands the best chance, but even those are dying.

Sizzler went under this week.

[Aqua Letifer]

@Jolly said in The end of restaurants:

Cookie-cutter corporate stands the best chance, but even those are dying.

Sizzler went under this week circa 1992.

FIFY

[taiwan_girl]

I really dont think this will happen. Yes, a lot will go out of business, but there will always be someone there to try something new.

I am an optimist and I do think that there will be a vaccine 1Q or 2Q next year.

By two years from now, people will talk about the COVID in the past tense. People will want to go out to eat, others will see the opportunity and open a restaurant.

There will definitely be a lot of people hurt in the short term, but I just dont see it lasting longly.

(Sizzler was one of the first western restaurants I ever went to. They were quite popular in Taiwan.)

[Copper]

Yes, but think of the millions of lives saved.

[Horace]

Even a single life would have been worth it.

[Aqua Letifer]

@Horace said in The end of restaurants:

Even a single life would have been worth it.

Yeah because the restaurants failing was completely preventable.

[jon-nyc]

@taiwan_girl Well, the industry will come back but individual restaurants and their proprietors might not. A lot of these guys have to personally guarantee loans for buildout and leases. They’ll be properly screwed.

But you’re right that demand will return and so will supply.

[Aqua Letifer]

I'll bet their service concept diversifies.