$425,000 per family

[Horace]

is it reasonable or supportable to think that Harris's budget would have led to a lower deficit than Trump's?

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It is not generally supportable to claim that Harris’s budget would have led to a lower deficit than Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill”, at least based on current nonpartisan projections.

Here’s why:

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Independent Analyses

• The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), which scores both Republican and Democratic proposals, estimates:

  • Trump's plan (OBBBA): ~$3.3 trillion added to the deficit over 10 years.
  • Harris’s plan: ~$3.95 trillion added to the deficit over the same period (after subtracting offsetting savings).

CRFB is nonpartisan and uses consistent methodology for both candidates’ proposals.

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🧮 What's Driving the Numbers?

• Trump’s Bill:

  • Big tax cuts.
  • Modest new spending (compared to Harris).
  • Few offsetting cuts.

• Harris’s Proposals:

  • More spending (e.g., health care expansion, climate programs).
  • Larger tax increases on wealthy and corporations.
  • Net result: higher spending than revenue = larger deficit.

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Could It Theoretically Be Lower?

Only under highly optimistic assumptions, such as:

• Stronger economic growth than projected from Harris’s investments.
• Full implementation and enforcement of tax increases with no revenue leakage.
• Additional policy changes not in the published platform.

However, those assumptions aren’t reflected in the best-available projections from CRFB, CBO, or the Tax Foundation.

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Conclusion

No, it is not reasonable to believe Harris’s budget would have led to a lower deficit than Trump’s bill—unless you reject mainstream budget analyses or assume radical changes in economic performance. Based on neutral estimates, Trump’s plan adds less to the deficit than Harris’s.