The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread
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Us giving up with the strait still closed seems like among the worst outcomes we might have realistically imagined.
Trump thinks he can will the W into reality by repeating it and hearing from his yes-men but the whole world will know it’s a massive L.
(Tweet author is WSJ reporter on national security beat.)
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I keep looking at all the bad news and think, maybe it's just the way the news organizations are skewing all this. But little by little the realization is hitting me that maybe we are really screwed with all of this.
Flushing the toilet is like practicing the piano; you just cannot go too long without doing it.--Axtremus
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I keep looking at all the bad news and think, maybe it's just the way the news organizations are skewing all this. But little by little the realization is hitting me that maybe we are really screwed with all of this.
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I suspect there’s always been a plan to secure the strait, it just requires more of a troop and resource commitment than he’s willing to make at least for now.
I imagine the real problem was assuming it would look more like Venezuela and be clean and quick, and never get to this stage at all.
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The Pentagon would definitely have had several scenarios/plans to secure the Strait during the first 24 to 48 hours of the military strike. All would have been presented to the civilian decision makers. That the Trump Admin decision maker didn’t heed the cautions and advice of the military planners is entirely another issue.
My hunch though is that at the political level the assumption was that the Iranian regime is so hated and rotten internally that would be just a matter of kicking the door in and the whole corrupt structure would collapse under its own weight.
Someone else used the same empty headed logic between September 1940 and June 1941 regarding another internally despised and rotten state. It cost millions of human lives.
Elbows up!
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Yep. That was what I suspected as well. But I think it's more akin to Putin's perception of Ukraine folding immediately. The difference being that Putin is committed.
"You cannot subsidize irresponsibility and expect people to become more responsible." — Thomas Sowell
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The Pentagon would definitely have had several scenarios/plans to secure the Strait during the first 24 to 48 hours of the military strike. All would have been presented to the civilian decision makers. That the Trump Admin decision maker didn’t heed the cautions and advice of the military planners is entirely another issue.
My hunch though is that at the political level the assumption was that the Iranian regime is so hated and rotten internally that would be just a matter of kicking the door in and the whole corrupt structure would collapse under its own weight.
Someone else used the same empty headed logic between September 1940 and June 1941 regarding another internally despised and rotten state. It cost millions of human lives.
My hunch though is that at the political level the assumption was that the Iranian regime is so hated and rotten internally that would be just a matter of kicking the door in and the whole corrupt structure would collapse under its own weight.
I've said said it before but the idea that being bombed makes people turn against their own government rather than against the people dropping the bombs doesn't really add up.
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Yep. That was what I suspected as well. But I think it's more akin to Putin's perception of Ukraine folding immediately. The difference being that Putin is committed.
Yep. That was what I suspected as well. But I think it's more akin to Putin's perception of Ukraine folding immediately. The difference being that Putin is committed.
There maybe some parallels, but overall I think Putin’s perception was that he believed his own mythology that throughout history Ukrainians and Russians were one and the same people and nation and that the country never existed, or had a right to exist in the first place. He even maintains that Ukrainian, despite having its own distinct morphology, grammar and vocabulary- is merely a dialect of Russian. He expected Ukrainians to greet the Russians as liberators.
Likewise with the military, I believe the US military planners anticipated considerable Iranian resistance to any attack, which is, of course what they are now receiving.
The Russian military on the other hand, was flat footed regarding the Ukrainian forces and expected little to no resistance once the massed Russian formations started their advance into Ukraine. They anticipated that once a few dug in Ukrainian positions fell in the Donbas and in the north approaching Kyiv, the Ukrainians would voluntarily lay down their weapons across all fronts. Once this occurred the Zelenskyi government would either flee to the West or be brought back to Moscow in cage until such time they could be repatriated to Kyiv to endure a humiliating show trial and a Siberian jail for the rest of their lives.
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