The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread

[Mik]

Well, here's the gift. We still don't know who is giving it.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-ends-worldwide-guessing-game-about-what-iran-actually-gifted-to-the-us/ar-AA1ZtAkO

[Renauda]

@jon-nyc said:

I wonder what price of oil is required at equilibrium to destroy 10% of global demand. And 20%, etc.

Good question. Not sure if anyone knows at this point.

[AndyD]

All news TV is about an 80 year old stuck in a quagmire.
Or rather, quicksand.

Can his redoubtable team come up trumps?

[jon-nyc]

Matters less than it might seem but interesting all the same.

[AndyD]

Interesting graphic

[Mik]

It is. Interesting way to show it. I'd imagine Iran is getting some pretty serious pressure to open it up. But I hate to see other countries struggle with energy for this war.

[jon-nyc]

[Andrea B]

Jeezel, Pete.

[jon-nyc]

#3 is debatable, but no doubt this is yet another example that shows why mid-tier powers will want nukes.

The question is will it have been worth it when it’s over.

[jon-nyc]

Us giving up with the strait still closed seems like among the worst outcomes we might have realistically imagined.

Trump thinks he can will the W into reality by repeating it and hearing from his yes-men but the whole world will know it’s a massive L.

(Tweet author is WSJ reporter on national security beat.)

[jon-nyc]

[Mik]

Jesus. Churchill he ain't.

[Axtremus]

The alternative would ... *sigh*

[Renauda]

@Mik said:

Jesus. Churchill he ain't.

He really can’t cope at all under the ensuing pressure and stress with all the variables of uncertainty that come into play with the realities of war. He manifests himself as a tyrannical fool.

[Tom-K]

I keep looking at all the bad news and think, maybe it's just the way the news organizations are skewing all this. But little by little the realization is hitting me that maybe we are really screwed with all of this.

[Mik]

@Axtremus said:

The alternative would ... *sigh*

Where's that beating a dead horse emoji?

I guess this will have to do.

[Mik]

@Tom-K said:

I keep looking at all the bad news and think, maybe it's just the way the news organizations are skewing all this. But little by little the realization is hitting me that maybe we are really screwed with all of this.

If we went in without a plan to secure the Strait, then yes.

[jon-nyc]

I suspect there’s always been a plan to secure the strait, it just requires more of a troop and resource commitment than he’s willing to make at least for now.

I imagine the real problem was assuming it would look more like Venezuela and be clean and quick, and never get to this stage at all.

[Renauda]

The Pentagon would definitely have had several scenarios/plans to secure the Strait during the first 24 to 48 hours of the military strike. All would have been presented to the civilian decision makers. That the Trump Admin decision maker didn’t heed the cautions and advice of the military planners is entirely another issue.

My hunch though is that at the political level the assumption was that the Iranian regime is so hated and rotten internally that would be just a matter of kicking the door in and the whole corrupt structure would collapse under its own weight.

Someone else used the same empty headed logic between September 1940 and June 1941 regarding another internally despised and rotten state. It cost millions of human lives.

[Mik]

Yep. That was what I suspected as well. But I think it's more akin to Putin's perception of Ukraine folding immediately. The difference being that Putin is committed.