Reality Time

[Jolly]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hegseth-warns-europeans-realities-china-border-threats-prevent-us-from-guaranteeing-security?intcmp=tw_fnc

[Mik]

I have no issue with his statement. No reason to change the policy from trump's first term.

[Jolly]

The Europeans - particularly Germany - have got to step up. And while Ukraine will not be in NATO, I'd make them a very, very tough nut to crack.

[Horace]

Seems like many motivated thinkers on the anti-Trump side deny the possibility of allies taking advantage of America. That any demands America may make of allies are by default stupid and counter-productive. It seems that that perspective is ridiculous on its face. In fact, it is very easy to believe that our economic relations with these allies might be weighted in their favor and against us, because that's been our mainstream political culture for a very long time.

[jon-nyc]

Even Republicans are calling it amateur hour.

But what do you expect when you hire a SecDef who’s only negotiating experience is how much time he gets with the hair stylist before cameras roll.

[jon-nyc]

I’m surprised the Administration agreed to hold the meetings in Munich given the inevitable comparisons were going to be made.

[Jolly]

Pete just said what his boss has already said. The return to pre-war borders is unrealistic. Shucks, even Zelensky knows that.

[Renauda]

Yes, Europe has to step up more and show more defiance. However, it would appear today that nothing is off the table including NATO membership if Putin does not negotiate in good faith:

Washington could impose tougher sanctions on Moscow and send U.S. troops to Ukraine if Russian President Vladimir Putin fails to negotiate a Ukraine peace deal in good faith, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance told the Wall Street Journal in an interview published Friday.

“There are economic tools of leverage, there are of course military tools of leverage,” Vance was quoted as saying. “I think there is a deal that is going to come out of this that’s going to shock a lot of people.”

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/02/14/vance-threatens-sanctions-us-troops-in-ukraine-if-putin-rejects-peace-deal-a88011

Putin’s primary objective will always be to recoup its undisputed hegemony over Eastern and Central Europe. That means a puppet regime in what will be left of Ukraine and, at the very least, the rollback of NATO from former Warsaw Pact countries. Preferably though, the total dissolution of NATO as we now know it.

Perhaps Trump had a “come to Jesus moment” when he spoke with Putin on the phone the other day. Trump finally understood what others have been telling him along; that he was not dealing with someone who had any real intention on making a peace deal of any meaningful sort or would even consider lasting concessions on Russia’s part.

[jon-nyc]

I don’t think your optimism is justified.

By the way, if anyone else had suggested US troops in Ukraine we’d have been told that’s the gateway to WW-III.

[Renauda]

I am not in the least bit optimistic. Rather I of it more as a forlorn hope.

By the way, if anyone else had suggested US troops in Ukraine we’d have been told that’s the gateway to WW-III.

Indubitably! In fact, just yesterday….oh, never mind.

[Jolly]

Make up your mind. First you denigrate a statement because it negates a bargaining position, then you decry not taking a bargaining point off the table.

[Renauda]

Are you talking to me? i suspect not but if you are, you are wrong.

[jon-nyc]

@Jolly said in Reality Time:

Make up your mind. First you denigrate a statement because it negates a bargaining position, then you decry not taking a bargaining point off the table.

I didn't decry it, indeed I welcome it. I simply pointed out that similar sentiments were deemed WWIII triggers yesterday.

[taiwan_girl]

How to make friends and influence people.

From the Munich Security Conference

"The new American administration has a very different world view to ours, one that has no regard for established rules, partnership and grown trust,” German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said at the Munich Security Conference on Friday, prior to Vance's comments.

"We have to accept that and we can deal with it. But I am convinced that it is not in the interests of the international community for this world view to become the dominant paradigm,” Steinmeier, whose post is largely ceremonial, said, according to Reuters.

and

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius condemned the Trump administration's decision to take "two important negotiating issues off the table" as a "careless" mistake.

"In my view, it would have been much better to talk about Ukraine’s possible NATO membership and possible territorial changes at the negotiating table first and then with Ukraine present and not with them already having Putin’s price hanging over them," he said.

[jon-nyc]

It's sad when 'amateur hour' is the most charitable interpretation one can come up with.

[Renauda]

Not quite Kafkaesque but heading that direction.

[Horace]

@jon-nyc said in Reality Time:

It's sad when 'amateur hour' is the most charitable interpretation one can come up with.

You can go with "Russian operative", if it feels more truthy to you.

[Renauda]

@Horace

The “Russian operative” (or asset) to which you refer is currently occupied learning all the details of the US intelligence networks and Crown Jewels sources for her handlers in the Lubyanka.

[Horace]

@Renauda Not even the oppositional senators were willing to go that far in the confirmation hearings. The rhetoric about how she's compromised is even too fringe for that venue.

[Renauda]

@Horace

We’ll see. I can guarantee you that with her in that role, 4 of the 5E are going to be very careful about sharing their respective nation’s intelligence with at least one of their number.