Spanish Covid observed mortality much lower

[jon-nyc]

CFR at least

vs

[Klaus]

Any explanations for the data?

[jon-nyc]

The main reason seems to be underreported cases in the spring due to low levels of testing, say these guys at Yale:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/24/infection-fatality-rate-shows-covid-19-isnt-getting-less-deadly/

Note they do a breakdown by age to see if the virus itself became less deadly and come to the conclusion that that didn’t happen.

But we still are probably seeing composition effects, since older/sicker folks are much better at isolating now than in March and April.

[Klaus]

Hm, the first obvious factor that comes to my mind is the delay between infection and death.

[jon-nyc]

Absolutely, but even compensating for that there remains a difference. You can eyeball it adjusting it say 3 weeks and see there's still an observed difference.

[taiwan_girl]

Part of it may be that the older people are taking much more precautions now than at the beginning of the pandemic. Old people homes are much more restrictive, etc.

The age group that is getting it is younger and younger and those people mostly do not get as sick or die.

[Loki]

@taiwan_girl said in Spanish Covid observed mortality much lower:

Part of it may be that the older people are taking much more precautions now than at the beginning of the pandemic. Old people homes are much more restrictive, etc.

The age group that is getting it is younger and younger and those people mostly do not get as sick or die.

Exactly. I said from the beginning securing the vulnerable should be our priority.