What Trump voters are going to be disappointed about.

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in What Trump voters are going to be disappointed about.:

Gas won’t go under $2

Grocery prices won’t get lower.

Car insurance rates won’t substantially decrease (I think 50% is the number Trump threw around)

Home prices and rent won’t go down

The Russia-Ukraine war won’t end on January 21st.

1. Anything in the mid-$2 range, as long as it is consistent, will probably work.
2. Probably not. But if wages go up without a corresponding uptick in food prices, I think everyone will be pleased.
3. Nope, that ain't happening.
4. Toss out a bunch of illegals and demand will decrease. Prices will at least stabilize for homes. Rent may actually go down.
5. No, but it's ending pretty soon. Zelensky knows it.

[Wim]

As to 1 and 5:
If Trump can manage to drill/produce more oil and throw it on the international market, Putin's oil revenues wil melt like snow from the sun. War in Uktain will soon be over then.

[Horace]

@Jolly said in What Trump voters are going to be disappointed about.:

@jon-nyc said in What Trump voters are going to be disappointed about.:

The Russia-Ukraine war won’t end on January 21st.

5. No, but it's ending pretty soon. Zelensky knows it.

I absolutely appreciate Trump's no-war perspective. Which would put me on the left, in days prior.

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in What Trump voters are going to be disappointed about.:

One man’s guess.

@Horace I’m answering your question here so as not to derail the other thread. Plus I have a feeling this thread will be pretty useful to revisit over the next couple of years.

1. Gas won’t go under $2

I heard lower prices, never heard $2. As @Jolly said $2.50 would sure look good…

2. Grocery prices won’t get lower.

Some will, some won’t. Deflation can be as bad as inflation.

3. Car insurance rates won’t substantially decrease (I think 50% is the number Trump threw around)

I never heard anything about car insurance at all.

4. Home prices and rent won’t go down

Rent may, but home buying being at the heart of generational wealth building was at the core of the Republican messaging. That means they don’t want real estate to deflate values. Maybe slow down… Beyond that, I would expect some deregulatory pushes to help ease the cost of new construction. Also, don’t forget https://www.boxabl.com/

5. The Russia-Ukraine war won’t end on January 21st.

Yeah, it will likely take up to March.

That’s a good start off the top of my head.

[jon-nyc]

@LuFins-Dad said in What Trump voters are going to be disappointed about.:

I never heard anything about car insurance at all.

[jon-nyc]

In fairness it’s possible he meant on his watch it’ll only go up 36.5%.

[Copper]

He stopped Hillary and Kamala.

Nothing he could do tops that.

His job is done.

[jon-nyc]

@Wim said in What Trump voters are going to be disappointed about.:

As to 1 and 5:
If Trump can manage to drill/produce more oil and throw it on the international market, Putin's oil revenues wil melt like snow from the sun. War in Uktain will soon be over then.

A little-discussed fact (except for here) is that our oil production reached its all time high under Biden. Doesn’t mean it can’t get higher, but he wasn’t able to do so in his first term.

[Axtremus]

There can a recession, may even be a great one under Trump, which may lead to all sorts of prices dropping. Immigration may also drop during severe economic recession.

Any prediction on recessions happening under Trump’s watch?

[Doctor Phibes]

@jon-nyc said in What Trump voters are going to be disappointed about.:

In fairness it’s possible he meant on his watch it’ll only go up 36.5%.

[Jolly]

@Copper said in What Trump voters are going to be disappointed about.:

He stopped Hillary and Kamala.

Nothing he could do tops that.

His job is done.

I dunno. He absolutely wrecked Biden's reputation, along with the other.

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in What Trump voters are going to be disappointed about.:

@Wim said in What Trump voters are going to be disappointed about.:

As to 1 and 5:
If Trump can manage to drill/produce more oil and throw it on the international market, Putin's oil revenues wil melt like snow from the sun. War in Uktain will soon be over then.

A little-discussed fact (except for here) is that our oil production reached its all time high under Biden. Doesn’t mean it can’t get higher, but he wasn’t able to do so in his first term.

Little discussed? It was discussed all the freaking time. The one factor that everybody kept ignoring in the conversations is that it takes years for new wells to get dug and start producing, and that production increases over time. Also ignored was the fact that oil imports into the US had declined drastically over Trump’s administration, but has raised every year under Biden’s.

So oil production will go up over the next 4 years as the new wells continue to come online and increase production. The question is how quickly can we get new wells in the ground, and what steps can be taken to get more nuclear plants up and running.

[jon-nyc]

The latter question is sooo important. AI is going to need it.

Re your first point, Republicans lied about it and Dems were afraid to highlight it. That’s what I mean by little discussed.

[Jolly]

If they sell it well, I think small nuclear is where the strength of the argument lies.

And I wouldn't give up on solar, especially in certain applications. I also would keep plugging on hydrogen...Especially when production is tied to wind, some forms of hydro or solar.

The problem with hydrogen is it takes more energy to make it than what you get out of it. The problem with solar is storage of excess capacity or cloudy days when power generation falls off. Maybe using solar for hydrogen kills two birds with one stone.

[Renauda]

@LuFins-Dad

The one factor that everybody kept ignoring in the conversations is that it takes years for new wells to get dug and start producing, and that production increases over time..

Not at all in the case of the timeline involved regarding drilling and production and not always or necessarily, with regard to increased production over time.

Also ignored was the fact that oil imports into the US had declined drastically over Trump’s administration…

Not from here. Oil exports from Alberta into the US increased substantially throughout the Trump years over the last two years of the Obama Administration when they actually declined, and has since continued to increase annually. The very rationale behind Trump’s policy behind KXL at the time.

[taiwan_girl]

It comes to perception. Those who love Trump will say the economy is doing great, regardless of what the actual numbers say. Those who hate Trump will claim the opposite.

Oil production is a perfect case. Domestic production is 20(?)% higher than at the end of Trump's term, US is a net exporter, yet the complaint is that Biden did not do enough.

[Jolly]

Real people don't read statistics about oil production, they look at the price on the gas pump or what their heating fuel bill is.

Seems to work as a general barometer.

[jon-nyc]

That’s why they’ll be so pleased when he keeps his promise and brings gas prices under $2.

[Jolly]

Well, Iran is dumping oil on the world market and I did pay $2.38 this last week.

Maybe after inauguration, we'll get there.

[Doctor Phibes]

The idea that really low oil prices is a good thing overall is very naive.