Internal vs Media polls
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Seen on twitter. Quoting the entire post by an attorney (Shipley).
Understand the difference in "internal polling" and media polls. About the only thing they have in common is the label.
The campaigns have hundreds of millions of dollars. A sizable chunk is spent on polling that, for a few weeks now, takes place every night.
And it is not just several hundred people like the media polls -- which do not spend millions of dollars getting their data -- internal polling involves hundreds of workers doing thousands of interviews every night so that the campaign can adjust its messaging in real time.
When you see sudden changes in campaign tactics that signals that the polling is showing a problem that needs to be addressed. When polling shows no significant problems, and the candidate is gaining ground, that is a signal to do more of the same -- if it ain't broke, don't try to fix it.
The Harris campaign has made three abrupt shifts in the past 10-15 days.
Number 1. The media blitz starting with 60 Minutes 12 days ago. She has been infamous for almost completely avoiding one-on-one media interviews for the first 60 days after Biden was pushed overboard. Her very first sit down for any interview of any time was with Dana Bash on Aug. 30 -- with Walz next to her. There was some commentary at the time that she had "checked that box" and she might not do any others -- just show up at campaign rallies and use the same vacuous canned empty comments and go on biography and "joy."
Knowing that was a possibility, the 60 Minutes appearance was backed up by 4 straight friendly non-news venues -- The View, Howard Stern, Stephen Colbert, and the "Call Her Daddy" podcast which is huge with women under 40.
That started on Oct. 6.
If Harris' polling had her winning on Oct. 5, they wouldn't have scheduled a sudden blitz of media appearances, starting with a potential trouble spot -- based on her past -- with 60 Minutes. But 60 Minutes was an attempt to bait Trump into doing the same, thinking the result would be similar to 2020, and 60 Minutes would probably focus on Jan. 6. But Trump didn't take the bait.
The goal was to get Trump to hurt himself -- which is an acknowledgement that Trump's campaign was gaining ground while her's was going flat. Then needed self-inflicted wound by Trump. But they didn't get it.
They took a risk but hedged that risk with the 4 friendly appearances immediately following 60 Minutes.
But then the friendly appearances all went badly -- capped off by saying on The View she wouldn't have done anything differently over the past 4 years than Biden had done -- when the "wrong track" number is 70%.
Number two. Suddenly, the next weekend, they announce a Fox News interview with Bret Baier to happen 10/16. In the aftermath -- however you want to characterize what happened -- the campaign admits going on Fox was intended to reach independents and Nikki Haley voters. That is a concession that her polling shows she cannot close the deal with a ground game alone -- they are behind and they need more raw votes from undecideds or wavering Trump voters.
All of this is happening against the backdrop of media polls showing she is running behind where Biden ran in 2020 with independents, black men, and Hispanics. The internal polling reveals just how bad that situation is.
And the Trump campaign just keeps doing what its doing -- when it ain't broken don't fix it.
Number 3. The Fox interview, the surrogates, and now Harris' post-Fox appearances show what is probably the last chance to turn this around -- Trump is dangerous. Joy is gone. Progressivism is gone. Generational change is gone. Now it is just fear-mongering, led by the "Republicans who served in his Administration are backing me." You saw it in the Fox news interview -- every question was turned into an attack on Trump in the answer.
What does this signify?
Trump is over the threshold and the Harris campaign knows it. His lead in Ariz., Georgia, and North Carolina have solidified, and he's in range of putting PA away -- which is strongly suggested by the Politico story yesterday about 20 PA Dem officials criticizing the PA campaign effort which is headed up by a labor organizer from Pittsburg who has never done anything like run a statewide campaign before.
A huge sign in this regard is that the Dem Senate candidates in PA, Michigan, and Wisconsin all avoid joint appearances when she is in the state.
This shift was first reflected in the public polling following her 60 Mins, The View, Stern, Colbert, and Call Her Daddy appearances -- and the internal polling shows just how badly that worked out.
Now they are desperate to find any approach that gets her back to "gaining" with only 18 days left.
Their best chance is to strip votes away that he now has.
