Inflation?
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Every year for the last two decades some economists have warned about inflation, but so far it hasn't happened. Their warnings have been wrong so many times that nobody listens to the warnings anymore.
I have a vague gut feeling that "inflation" might be the big buzzword of 2021.
What do you think?
If it does come, the consequences will be devastating. The central banks have basically lost the instruments to do anything about it.
@Klaus said in Inflation?:
What do you think?
I think I'm on my fourth cup of green tea and so therefore I'm feeling groovy.
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My bigger concern is not traditional inflation slowly eroding the value of the dollar but a sudden loss of confidence that sinks the dollar overnight. I think by the time it started happening it would be too late to hedge it.
The risk may not be large, but the outcome would be catastrophic enough that it’s worth being a bit concerned about.
All of my treasurys are inflation linked. I do have a lot of NY munis but I’m shrinking it over time.
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My bigger concern is not traditional inflation slowly eroding the value of the dollar but a sudden loss of confidence that sinks the dollar overnight. I think by the time it started happening it would be too late to hedge it.
The risk may not be large, but the outcome would be catastrophic enough that it’s worth being a bit concerned about.
All of my treasurys are inflation linked. I do have a lot of NY munis but I’m shrinking it over time.
@jon-nyc said in Inflation?:
My bigger concern is not traditional inflation slowly eroding the value of the dollar but a sudden loss of confidence that sinks the dollar overnight. I think by the time it started happening it would be too late to hedge it.
+1. I have the same thought when I hear the news that the Federal Reserve signaled that they are willing to let inflation run higher than 2% per year to "make up" for the very low inflation rates in the last few years. Not that there is anything fundamentally wrong with that policy stance itself, but the market/people can overreact and the overreaction can spiral out of control.
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My teenaged son is making $11.50 an hour working 30 hours a week at a Walmart. This is a job that a few short years ago started at $7.50 an hour. Their competitor, Target, just raised their starting pay to $15 per hour across the nation. How does this not lead to inflation?
Housing prices are rising everywhere - https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/North-America/United-States/Price-History. My house has increased 35% in 5 years. How does this not lead to inflation?
Groceries skyrocketed thanks to COVID, and now that the supply lines have stabilized, the prices haven’t dropped (at least not as much as they should have). How does this not result in inflation?
There are already new trade agreements in place designed to bring more manufacturing back to the US. I think you will see the same around the world. Many countries are going to want to be less reliant on China for their goods. How does this not result in inflation? Especially in the US where wages are skyrocketing, but quality of manufacturing is generally a little sub par meaning we will be paying more for goods that will ultimately cost more in maintenance and replenishment. How does this not result in inflation?
The only major things that have kept inflation relatively in check has been the price of oil, and the trend of technology to both improve AND get cheaper. I don’t think those two things alone can hold back the storm with what’s coming.
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@jon-nyc Were you in Brasil during hyper inflation?
A friend was there at the Taiwan economic cooperation office, and told me stories where he could not pay anything with a credit card, because in the 30 days it would take to process the charges, the hotel or other vendors would get only approx half of the value of the goods and services!
The office had to have huge amounts of cash on hand to run the office!
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I wasn’t there for the hyperinflation but there was a major devaluation in late 98 (the so-called Real crisis) which actually precipitated my departure. I was based in NY and billed in dollars. So overnight my billing rate almost doubled. I tried to double my productivity but wasn’t able to pull it off. lol
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I wasn’t there for the hyperinflation but there was a major devaluation in late 98 (the so-called Real crisis) which actually precipitated my departure. I was based in NY and billed in dollars. So overnight my billing rate almost doubled. I tried to double my productivity but wasn’t able to pull it off. lol
@jon-nyc said in Inflation?:
I tried to double my productivity but wasn’t able to pull it off. lol
5555 Only able to get to 198%!!!!
