Did Lockdown Work?
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I don't know enough a about the statistics he's referencing here, so perhaps someone can help?
I explore the association between the severity of lockdown policies in the first half of 2020 and mortality rates. Using two indices from the Blavatnik Centre’s Covid 19 policy measures and comparing weekly mortality rates from 24 European countries in the first halves of 2017-2020, and addressing policy endogeneity in two different ways, I find no clear association between lockdown policies and mortality development.
From the PDF:
- Conclusions
The lockdowns in most Western countries have thrown the world into the most severe recession since World War II and the most rapidly developing recession ever seen in mature market economies. They have also caused an erosion of fundamental rights and the separation of powers in large part of the world as both democratic and autocratic regimes have misused their emergency powers and ignored constitutional limits to policy-making (Bjørnskov and Voigt, 2020). It is therefore important to evaluate whether and to which extent the lockdowns have worked as officially intended: to suppress the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and prevent deaths associated with it. Comparing weekly mortality in 24 European countries, the findings in this paper suggest that more severe lockdown policies have not been associated with lower mortality. In other words, the lockdowns have not worked as intended.
These general findings are consistent with the results of a previous paper using a synthetic control method to test the effects of Sweden’s absence of a lockdown (Born et al., 2020). Although much has been claimed about Sweden’s relatively high mortality rate, compared to the other Nordic countries, the present data show that the country experienced 161 fewer deaths per million in the first
ten weeks, and 464 more deaths in weeks 11-22. In total, Swedish mortality rates are 14 percent higher than in the preceding three years, which is slightly more than France, but considerably fewer than Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom that all implemented much stricter policies.
The problem at hand is therefore that evidence from Sweden as well as the evidence presented here does not suggest that lockdowns have significantly affected the development of mortality in Europe. It has nevertheless wreaked economic havoc in most societies and may lead to a substantial number of additional deaths for other reasons. A British government report from April for example assessed that a limited lockdown could cause 185,000 excess deaths over the next years (DHSC, 2020). Evaluated as a whole, at a first glance, the lockdown policies of the Spring of 2020 therefore appear to be substantial long-run government failures.
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
- Conclusions
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“We found that we are able to select a group of countries to make the same point we’ve been making since early March, with rationales changing by the week. Further, we found that, if you select the right metric and are careful about which countries to compare it with, Sweden did A-Ok.”
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I think the US gets a C or a C- on the lockdown.
We definitely delayed a lot of cases which matters greatly - we’re much better at treating it now.
But we never got the virus sufficiently contained to manage with a test and trace system that would allow us to get back to something like normal.
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A test and trace system was less likely achievable than sufficient virus containment was. It seemed clear from the start that the only realistic positive outcome of the lockdown would be a delay in cases. The discussion at the time contained much fantasy, to make a lockdown seem more appealing.
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@jon-nyc said in Did Lockdown Work?:
“We found that we are able to select a group of countries to make the same point we’ve been making since early March, with rationales changing by the week. Further, we found that, if you select the right metric and are careful about which countries to compare it with, Sweden did A-Ok.”
IOW: First draw your curves, then plot your points.
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Hey Ax!
I'm pretty sure one of the below digits is incorrect. George posted these, but it's unlikely he has any clue at all.
Only you are able, Ax. Only you.
Help me out here, would 'ya? Find the digit, save the world.
Thanks in Advance.
ID=782003117027014000123127094029118089052016006059021006029097008127094066011111020092034010029016033047045124069030026067014108051022030047038030074027020095116006020069011090109013100127114096084104067114093096064016021120104030112102083020102120105 -
I do not understand why there is so much initial research being done now, as opposed to the previous near-pandemics which should have been studied to formulate current policies.
In other words, I say to the "scientific community:" where the hell have you been, and why did you let politicians ignore your previous work?
We ended up with our pants down, so to speak. No masks, no equipment, no testing equipment, no internal drug manufacturing, etc. etc.And all studies seem to follow the same trajectory:
true today - false next week.
Tag, you're it!
Ta -
@Rainman said in Did Lockdown Work?:
Hey Ax!
I'm pretty sure one of the below digits is incorrect. George posted these, but it's unlikely he has any clue at all.
Only you are able, Ax. Only you.
Help me out here, would 'ya? Find the digit, save the world.
Thanks in Advance.
ID=782003117027014000123127094029118089052016006059021006029097008127094066011111020092034010029016033047045124069030026067014108051022030047038030074027020095116006020069011090109013100127114096084104067114093096064016021120104030112102083020102120105lol "4027020095" what a dumb ID. Omg can you even imagine a cool ID that had so much as a "02009" in it, much less "4027020095"? Omg mortifying.
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@Horace said in Did Lockdown Work?:
A test and trace system was less likely achievable than sufficient virus containment was. It seemed clear from the start that the only realistic positive outcome of the lockdown would be a delay in cases. The discussion at the time contained much fantasy, to make a lockdown seem more appealing.
Some day a thoughtful piece will be written on the realities of the possibility of a successful test and trace system in the US. It has become a centerpiece in the criticism of our response and we deserve to know the truth.
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@Rainman said in Did Lockdown Work?:
In other words, I say to the "scientific community:" where the hell have you been, and why did you let politicians ignore your previous work?
Try to understand. A rookie nurse accidentally autoclaved the lab's entire supply of Twinkies. We were in deep mourning for days. We were unable to get any work done. None. We couldn't even play Grand Theft Auto. When I say we mourned, baby, we mourned.
Now for the second part of your question. The politicians, those dirty rat bastards, threatened to cancel our grants for the next ten years if we didn't stop, as they put it, "calling us all the damn day and night bullshitting about some stupid vaccine breakthrough."
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@Rainman said in Did Lockdown Work?:
I do not understand why there is so much initial research being done now, as opposed to the previous near-pandemics which should have been studied to formulate current policies.
In other words, I say to the "scientific community:" where the hell have you been, and why did you let politicians ignore your previous work?
We ended up with our pants down, so to speak. No masks, no equipment, no testing equipment, no internal drug manufacturing, etc. etc.Scientists follow the money, they don't just start doing clever shit for no reason. It's the politicians you should be pointing the finger at.
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@Doctor-Phibes said in Did Lockdown Work?:
It's the politicians you should be pointing the finger at.
I do. Guess which finger.
Seriously, I do take the time to email my representatives, at both the state and fed level. I have sent Trump numerous emails.
I'll keep it up, although I realize I cannot expect anything more than their generic "thanks for your email, and I am wonderful and care only about you" BS.And that's the most angering. We live in a representative democracy, where our representatives get into office and immediately go on a power trip, fall in line as told to do, and as an average American I might as well go holler at the moon.
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Always remember, Operation Valkyrie was an act of sedition.
Warning: I post things that interest me. Read and comment at your own discretion. -
@Rainman said in Did Lockdown Work?:
And that's the most angering. We live in a representative democracy, where our representatives get into office and immediately go on a power trip, fall in line as told to do, and as an average American I might as well go holler at the moon.
I think I mentioned that during the Clinton Administration I redd that of the budget for the Dept of Education, the percent that directly benefitted the schools was 11%.
Which means 89% of the budget went to the support of the Dept of Education.
That was quite an object lesson. I think Congress operates much the same way. They're great at dashing around looking busy as hell, going back home a couple of times a year to kiss some babies, even passing the occasional piece of legislation that, you know, ordinary Americans actually care about. Otherwise, when the shit hits the fan, where are they? Kneeling someplace with colorful scarves draped around their necks and quivering with sensitivity.
Yeah, thanks for that.
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@Jolly said in Did Lockdown Work?:
Now, as for COVID response...In California, one of the most liberal states in the union, 60% of people have told COVID tracers to piss up a rope.
Americans, even for their own good, do not like to be told what to do.
Exactly. Sometimes, the good of society has to come before the good of the individual.
Personally, I have a lot of trouble understanding why people cannot understand that.
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@Doctor-Phibes said in Did Lockdown Work?:
It's the politicians you should be pointing the finger at.
I wasn't done, given Cat's post in addition to 'ol Doc Phibes.
The finger is pointed at the media, politicians, and the educational establishment K-16, in reverse order.
What I cannot fight, even with emails, is the destruction I saw take place in public education during my 12 years. The direct indoctrination taking place in the classroom, carefully inserted even into PE and music classrooms. Heck, I even noticed when I was a college prof, how personal perspectives of faculty became quickly subservient to the ideology of the left. I learned to just shut up. And what the hell: even when I was an undergraduate, I experienced the nonsense of the "world music" classes and the fact that everyone was expected to agree that some flute playing in Africa was as important if not more important, than studying all those dead guys' music.
It's been going on for decades, and it all started in academics. Critical Theory, Social Justice, Intersectionalism, hiding under "Critical Thinking Skills" and similar.
Many of us adults lived through the beginnings of the movement, I guess we never expected so much to turn into societal destruction, it seemed that the nutty stuff would obviously die under its subjective "truth" -- but didn't.
