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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. First representative study (I know of)

First representative study (I know of)

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  • jon-nycJ Offline
    jon-nycJ Offline
    jon-nyc
    wrote on last edited by
    #2

    I saw reference on twitter last night to half a dozen or so randomized antibody tests around the world. Today I will try to find them.

    Only non-witches get due process.

    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
    1 Reply Last reply
    • jon-nycJ Offline
      jon-nycJ Offline
      jon-nyc
      wrote on last edited by
      #3

      Do they have any indication of the state of the 15% who tested positive? IOW, how many of them are truly asymptomatic vs pre-symptomatic?

      Only non-witches get due process.

      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
      1 Reply Last reply
      • jon-nycJ Offline
        jon-nycJ Offline
        jon-nyc
        wrote on last edited by
        #4

        How would this affect policy? If hard-hit areas still have relatively low serology surely the primary conclusion is any curve-bending we see is due to social distancing and not herd immunity.

        Only non-witches get due process.

        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
        KlausK 1 Reply Last reply
        • KlausK Offline
          KlausK Offline
          Klaus
          wrote on last edited by Klaus
          #5

          The study is evidence that mortality rates are much lower than what the division exercises of the Johns Hopkins numbers suggest. Of course that affects policy. From what I understand, our government now considers it to be time to come up with a time plan to eventually get back to normal.

          1 Reply Last reply
          • jon-nycJ Offline
            jon-nycJ Offline
            jon-nyc
            wrote on last edited by
            #6

            That was a content-free post.

            Of course the IFR is less than than CFR, that’s always been known. Why would this (or another) estimate change the approach?

            Only non-witches get due process.

            • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
            1 Reply Last reply
            • KlausK Offline
              KlausK Offline
              Klaus
              wrote on last edited by
              #7

              You don't think it matters how much less it is?

              2% justifies an entirely different arsenal of policy than 0.1%.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                How would this affect policy? If hard-hit areas still have relatively low serology surely the primary conclusion is any curve-bending we see is due to social distancing and not herd immunity.

                KlausK Offline
                KlausK Offline
                Klaus
                wrote on last edited by
                #8

                @jon-nyc said in First representative study (I know of):

                How would this affect policy?

                Also, your political instinct seems to be off.

                Maybe you think it shouldn't affect public policy, and maybe you have good reasons for that (or not). But as a matter of fact it does.

                Here's a random sample of news articles about this study from today. They all contain the same words: "Lockerung" - easing/relaxation of the quarantine. A surprisingly high immunity. A surprisingly low death rate.

                https://www.morgenpost.de/vermischtes/article228882661/Coronavirus-Deutschland-Lockerung-der-Corona-Massnahmen-laut-Heinsberg-Forschern-moeglich.html

                https://www.welt.de/vermischtes/article207155699/Coronavirus-Studie-Heinsberg-15-Prozent-immun-erste-Lockerungen-moeglich.html

                https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/heinsberg-studie-lockerung-von-auflagen-waere-offenbar.1939.de.html?drn:news_id=1119064

                https://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland/corona-statements-heinsberg-studie-14-prozent-der-untersuchten-buerger-sind-mittlerweile-immun_id_11867345.html

                https://www.merkur.de/welt/coronavirus-nrw-heinsberg-karte-aktuell-fallzahlen-tote-abitur-kontaktverbot-infizierte-laschet-grenzen-zr-13642085.html

                JollyJ 1 Reply Last reply
                • KlausK Klaus

                  @jon-nyc said in First representative study (I know of):

                  How would this affect policy?

                  Also, your political instinct seems to be off.

                  Maybe you think it shouldn't affect public policy, and maybe you have good reasons for that (or not). But as a matter of fact it does.

                  Here's a random sample of news articles about this study from today. They all contain the same words: "Lockerung" - easing/relaxation of the quarantine. A surprisingly high immunity. A surprisingly low death rate.

                  https://www.morgenpost.de/vermischtes/article228882661/Coronavirus-Deutschland-Lockerung-der-Corona-Massnahmen-laut-Heinsberg-Forschern-moeglich.html

                  https://www.welt.de/vermischtes/article207155699/Coronavirus-Studie-Heinsberg-15-Prozent-immun-erste-Lockerungen-moeglich.html

                  https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/heinsberg-studie-lockerung-von-auflagen-waere-offenbar.1939.de.html?drn:news_id=1119064

                  https://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland/corona-statements-heinsberg-studie-14-prozent-der-untersuchten-buerger-sind-mittlerweile-immun_id_11867345.html

                  https://www.merkur.de/welt/coronavirus-nrw-heinsberg-karte-aktuell-fallzahlen-tote-abitur-kontaktverbot-infizierte-laschet-grenzen-zr-13642085.html

                  JollyJ Offline
                  JollyJ Offline
                  Jolly
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #9

                  @Klaus said in First representative study (I know of):

                  @jon-nyc said in First representative study (I know of):

                  How would this affect policy?

                  Also, your political instinct seems to be off.

                  Maybe you think it shouldn't affect public policy, and maybe you have good reasons for that (or not). But as a matter of fact it does.

                  Here's a random sample of news articles about this study from today. They all contain the same words: "Lockerung" - easing/relaxation of the quarantine. A surprisingly high immunity. A surprisingly low death rate.

                  https://www.morgenpost.de/vermischtes/article228882661/Coronavirus-Deutschland-Lockerung-der-Corona-Massnahmen-laut-Heinsberg-Forschern-moeglich.html

                  https://www.welt.de/vermischtes/article207155699/Coronavirus-Studie-Heinsberg-15-Prozent-immun-erste-Lockerungen-moeglich.html

                  https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/heinsberg-studie-lockerung-von-auflagen-waere-offenbar.1939.de.html?drn:news_id=1119064

                  https://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland/corona-statements-heinsberg-studie-14-prozent-der-untersuchten-buerger-sind-mittlerweile-immun_id_11867345.html

                  https://www.merkur.de/welt/coronavirus-nrw-heinsberg-karte-aktuell-fallzahlen-tote-abitur-kontaktverbot-infizierte-laschet-grenzen-zr-13642085.html

                  Wonder if the population genetic make-up plays any factor?

                  “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                  Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                  markM 1 Reply Last reply
                  • JollyJ Jolly

                    @Klaus said in First representative study (I know of):

                    @jon-nyc said in First representative study (I know of):

                    How would this affect policy?

                    Also, your political instinct seems to be off.

                    Maybe you think it shouldn't affect public policy, and maybe you have good reasons for that (or not). But as a matter of fact it does.

                    Here's a random sample of news articles about this study from today. They all contain the same words: "Lockerung" - easing/relaxation of the quarantine. A surprisingly high immunity. A surprisingly low death rate.

                    https://www.morgenpost.de/vermischtes/article228882661/Coronavirus-Deutschland-Lockerung-der-Corona-Massnahmen-laut-Heinsberg-Forschern-moeglich.html

                    https://www.welt.de/vermischtes/article207155699/Coronavirus-Studie-Heinsberg-15-Prozent-immun-erste-Lockerungen-moeglich.html

                    https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/heinsberg-studie-lockerung-von-auflagen-waere-offenbar.1939.de.html?drn:news_id=1119064

                    https://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland/corona-statements-heinsberg-studie-14-prozent-der-untersuchten-buerger-sind-mittlerweile-immun_id_11867345.html

                    https://www.merkur.de/welt/coronavirus-nrw-heinsberg-karte-aktuell-fallzahlen-tote-abitur-kontaktverbot-infizierte-laschet-grenzen-zr-13642085.html

                    Wonder if the population genetic make-up plays any factor?

                    markM Offline
                    markM Offline
                    mark
                    wrote on last edited by mark
                    #10

                    @Jolly said in First representative study (I know of):

                    @Klaus said in First representative study (I know of):

                    @jon-nyc said in First representative study (I know of):

                    How would this affect policy?

                    Also, your political instinct seems to be off.

                    Maybe you think it shouldn't affect public policy, and maybe you have good reasons for that (or not). But as a matter of fact it does.

                    Here's a random sample of news articles about this study from today. They all contain the same words: "Lockerung" - easing/relaxation of the quarantine. A surprisingly high immunity. A surprisingly low death rate.

                    https://www.morgenpost.de/vermischtes/article228882661/Coronavirus-Deutschland-Lockerung-der-Corona-Massnahmen-laut-Heinsberg-Forschern-moeglich.html

                    https://www.welt.de/vermischtes/article207155699/Coronavirus-Studie-Heinsberg-15-Prozent-immun-erste-Lockerungen-moeglich.html

                    https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/heinsberg-studie-lockerung-von-auflagen-waere-offenbar.1939.de.html?drn:news_id=1119064

                    https://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland/corona-statements-heinsberg-studie-14-prozent-der-untersuchten-buerger-sind-mittlerweile-immun_id_11867345.html

                    https://www.merkur.de/welt/coronavirus-nrw-heinsberg-karte-aktuell-fallzahlen-tote-abitur-kontaktverbot-infizierte-laschet-grenzen-zr-13642085.html

                    Wonder if the population genetic make-up plays any factor?

                    I have been thinking and talking to my wife about that. I think genetics has a huge role in this.

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • Aqua LetiferA Offline
                      Aqua LetiferA Offline
                      Aqua Letifer
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #11

                      I'm guessing that too, mark. Would explain part of the random severity of the disease in some and not in others.

                      Please love yourself.

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