"Second Chance Probation"

[George K]

UPS driver steals $187K of goods - 24 months probation.

https://cwbchicago.com/2023/09/chicago-ups-driver-louis-vuitton-theft-probation-sentence-court-news.html

A UPS driver accused of diverting $187,000 worth of Louis Vuitton shipments to his Chicago home may have the case wiped from his record if he completes a 24-month probation program, court records show.

In April 2022, prosecutors accused Pedro Caudillo, 27, of loading boxes of the designer’s goods onto his truck at the UPS South Loop warehouse even though they were slated to be delivered by a different truck. He then delivered the items to his home, officials said.

Now, Caudillo has struck a deal. He pleaded guilty to theft of $100,000 to $500,000 and received a sentence of 24 months of “second chance probation” from Judge Lawrence Flood. If he sticks with the program, pays $25,000 in restitution, and performs community service, the charge will be dismissed.

[jon-nyc]

I wish we had great data on when ‘second chances’ help rehabilitate and when they embolden first time offenders.

[George K]

That website track offenders who are on probation, parole, etc. - not so much as a database, but rather isolated incidents.

Here's a week's worth of posts describing similar incidents:

[jon-nyc]

Right, where's the list of probationers that didn't re-offend? And where's the control group?

[George K]

https://spac.icjia-api.cloud/uploads/Illinois_Result_First-The_High_Cost_of_Recidivism_2018-20191106T18123262.pdf

Thirty-five percent of those sentenced to probation for felony offenses each year recidivate within three years of sentencing, and 17% will recidivate within one year.

Thirty-seven percent of those sentenced to probation for misdemeanor offenses each year recidivate within three years of sentencing, and 19% will recidivate within one year.

These are older data (2018). I suspect it's not much different now.

The UPS guy committed a felony. The odds are 50/50 he'll do something again in the next 8 years.

[Copper]

@jon-nyc said in "Second Chance Probation":

And where's the control group?

Elected to congress.

[jon-nyc]

The control? How does that compare to those who aren't given probation?

Unfortunately broad averages wouldn't really work. You'd need to have controls that match on a few factors (e.g. first time offenders committing x crime - group A gets probation, group B gets prison. What happens after?)

[George K]

@jon-nyc said in "Second Chance Probation":

The control? How does that compare to those who aren't given probation?

Third row of the picture - that shows the population imprisoned for felonies?