"Second Chance Probation"
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UPS driver steals $187K of goods - 24 months probation.
A UPS driver accused of diverting $187,000 worth of Louis Vuitton shipments to his Chicago home may have the case wiped from his record if he completes a 24-month probation program, court records show.
In April 2022, prosecutors accused Pedro Caudillo, 27, of loading boxes of the designer’s goods onto his truck at the UPS South Loop warehouse even though they were slated to be delivered by a different truck. He then delivered the items to his home, officials said.
Now, Caudillo has struck a deal. He pleaded guilty to theft of $100,000 to $500,000 and received a sentence of 24 months of “second chance probation” from Judge Lawrence Flood. If he sticks with the program, pays $25,000 in restitution, and performs community service, the charge will be dismissed.
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Thirty-five percent of those sentenced to probation for felony offenses each year recidivate within three years of sentencing, and 17% will recidivate within one year.
Thirty-seven percent of those sentenced to probation for misdemeanor offenses each year recidivate within three years of sentencing, and 19% will recidivate within one year.
These are older data (2018). I suspect it's not much different now.
The UPS guy committed a felony. The odds are 50/50 he'll do something again in the next 8 years.
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Right, where's the list of probationers that didn't re-offend? And where's the control group?
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The control? How does that compare to those who aren't given probation?
Unfortunately broad averages wouldn't really work. You'd need to have controls that match on a few factors (e.g. first time offenders committing x crime - group A gets probation, group B gets prison. What happens after?)
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The control? How does that compare to those who aren't given probation?
Unfortunately broad averages wouldn't really work. You'd need to have controls that match on a few factors (e.g. first time offenders committing x crime - group A gets probation, group B gets prison. What happens after?)
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