China Post Pandemic Economy - Not Good
-
China's real estate sector has grappled with a deepening downturn for years. Now a shrinking population is casting another shadow over the stagnant property market.
Goldman Sachs estimates that demand for new homes in Chinese urban cities will remain suppressed at under 5 million units per year in the coming years — one fourth of the peak of 20 million units in 2017.
"Falling population and slowing urbanization suggest decreasing demographic demand for housing" in the coming years, Goldman Sachs economists said in a note Monday.
The country's population is estimated to fall to below 1.39 billion by 2035 from 1.41 billion, according to World Bank's latest data, said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at Economist Intelligence Unit, citing a combination of fewer newborns and more deaths from an ageing population.
China's population has been declining for the past three years, with the latest government data for 2024 showing it fell by 1.39 million from the prior year, as birth rates drop.
