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The New Coffee Room

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  3. China Post Pandemic Economy - Not Good

China Post Pandemic Economy - Not Good

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  • T Offline
    T Offline
    taiwan_girl
    wrote on 17 Aug 2023, 02:36 last edited by
    #2

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-66506132

    China has stopped releasing youth unemployment figures, which were seen by some as a key indication of the country's slowdown.
    The decision is due to changes in the world's second largest economy and its society, a government spokesman said.
    In June, China's jobless rate for 16 to 24 year olds in urban areas hit a record high of more than 20%.

    1 Reply Last reply
    • J Online
      J Online
      jon-nyc
      wrote on 17 Aug 2023, 10:00 last edited by
      #3

      That should make the problem go away.

      They must have learned that from the anti-standardized test folks here.

      "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
      -Cormac McCarthy

      1 Reply Last reply
      • A Offline
        A Offline
        Axtremus
        wrote on 19 Aug 2023, 17:00 last edited by
        #4

        https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/18/investing/china-evergrande-bankruptcy-explained/index.html

        Evergrande, one of China's largest real estate developers, filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy.

        A 1 Reply Last reply 29 Jan 2024, 12:12
        • R Offline
          R Offline
          Renauda
          wrote on 19 Aug 2023, 18:55 last edited by
          #5

          Was listening to BBC WS in the truck last week. There was a special report on the sad state of China’s economy at the moment. The report said that deflation is setting in across the economy.

          Elbows up!

          1 Reply Last reply
          • T Offline
            T Offline
            taiwan_girl
            wrote on 20 Aug 2023, 01:09 last edited by
            #6

            China isn't Japan in the 1990's. How Its Economic Meltdown Is Different.

            PS. The article can be read using "reader view"

            1 Reply Last reply
            • T Offline
              T Offline
              taiwan_girl
              wrote on 28 Aug 2023, 01:28 last edited by taiwan_girl
              #7

              Another concern

              "China's colossal hidden-debt problem.

              This mainly refers to a mountain of liabilities accumulated by the country's local governments, mostly to fund regional infrastructure projects such as building roads and bridges. An analysis by the Chinese media outlet Caixin Global estimated the outstanding obligations of the so-called local government financing vehicles, or LGFVs, at close to a staggering $10 trillion."

              "For months, China's local administrations have struggled to turn their financing vehicles profitable – increasing pressure on the national government to prop up the ailing sector via costly interventions.

              As risks tied to the sector mount, banks are unwilling to lend more, investors are turning their backs on bonds, and viable projects are harder to come by, according to several anonymous employees interviewed by Bloomberg.

              As a result, the local governments have been struggling to generate enough income or raise funding to meet the costs of servicing their debt."

              https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/China-s-effort-to-cut-10tn-of-hidden-debt-faces-uphill-climb

              1 Reply Last reply
              • T Offline
                T Offline
                taiwan_girl
                wrote on 12 Dec 2023, 16:32 last edited by taiwan_girl 12 Dec 2023, 16:33
                #8

                https://explainingfinance.com/news/plunging-pork-prices-tip-china-back-into-deflation/

                Consumer prices in China fell more than expected last month, sliding the country back into deflation and renewing concerns about the strength of the world’s second largest economy.

                The country’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Thursday that the consumer price index (CPI) edged down 0.2% in October compared to the same month a year ago. The decline exceeded the 0.1% fall forecast by a Reuters poll of analysts.

                The drop was mainly attributed to falling food prices, particularly pork, which has been sliding for months and is down 30% compared to a year ago, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.

                Maybe we should sell them some US beef. LOL

                1 Reply Last reply
                • J Offline
                  J Offline
                  Jolly
                  wrote on 12 Dec 2023, 21:44 last edited by
                  #9

                  They couldn't afford it.

                  “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                  Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                  T 1 Reply Last reply 13 Dec 2023, 19:11
                  • J Jolly
                    12 Dec 2023, 21:44

                    They couldn't afford it.

                    T Offline
                    T Offline
                    taiwan_girl
                    wrote on 13 Dec 2023, 19:11 last edited by
                    #10

                    @Jolly LOL

                    The interesting thing is that the data came from internal Chinese statistics, so in real, it is probably worse!!

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • A Axtremus
                      19 Aug 2023, 17:00

                      https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/18/investing/china-evergrande-bankruptcy-explained/index.html

                      Evergrande, one of China's largest real estate developers, filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy.

                      A Offline
                      A Offline
                      Axtremus
                      wrote on 29 Jan 2024, 12:12 last edited by
                      #11

                      @Axtremus said in China Post Pandemic Economy - Not Good:

                      https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/18/investing/china-evergrande-bankruptcy-explained/index.html

                      Evergrande, one of China's largest real estate developers, filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy.

                      https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/28/business/china-evergrande.html

                      Court decision:

                      Evergrande Will Be Dismantled, a ‘Big Bang’ End to Years of Stumbles
                      After multiple delays and even a few faint glimmers of hope, a Hong Kong court has sounded the death knell for what was once China’s biggest real estate firm.

                      George KG 1 Reply Last reply 29 Jan 2024, 12:58
                      • A Axtremus
                        29 Jan 2024, 12:12

                        @Axtremus said in China Post Pandemic Economy - Not Good:

                        https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/18/investing/china-evergrande-bankruptcy-explained/index.html

                        Evergrande, one of China's largest real estate developers, filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy.

                        https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/28/business/china-evergrande.html

                        Court decision:

                        Evergrande Will Be Dismantled, a ‘Big Bang’ End to Years of Stumbles
                        After multiple delays and even a few faint glimmers of hope, a Hong Kong court has sounded the death knell for what was once China’s biggest real estate firm.

                        George KG Offline
                        George KG Offline
                        George K
                        wrote on 29 Jan 2024, 12:58 last edited by
                        #12

                        @Axtremus said in China Post Pandemic Economy - Not Good:

                        Court decision:

                        Evergrande Will Be Dismantled, a ‘Big Bang’ End to Years of Stumbles
                        After multiple delays and even a few faint glimmers of hope, a Hong Kong court has sounded the death knell for what was once China’s biggest real estate firm.

                        Saw that earlier. What are the global ramifications?

                        "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                        The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                        T 1 Reply Last reply 29 Jan 2024, 16:00
                        • MikM Away
                          MikM Away
                          Mik
                          wrote on 29 Jan 2024, 14:12 last edited by Mik
                          #13

                          I think it’s fairly contained to China. I’m not aware that foreign banks are involved, but I could be wrong about that.

                          “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • George KG George K
                            29 Jan 2024, 12:58

                            @Axtremus said in China Post Pandemic Economy - Not Good:

                            Court decision:

                            Evergrande Will Be Dismantled, a ‘Big Bang’ End to Years of Stumbles
                            After multiple delays and even a few faint glimmers of hope, a Hong Kong court has sounded the death knell for what was once China’s biggest real estate firm.

                            Saw that earlier. What are the global ramifications?

                            T Offline
                            T Offline
                            taiwan_girl
                            wrote on 29 Jan 2024, 16:00 last edited by
                            #14

                            @George-K Just from my opinion, not super major issue. Evergrande was pretty much a domestic only company in China.

                            But, it may make foreign companies reduce their investment in China if they see concern about the continuing domestic economic problems there.

                            So, it may "spiral" domestically.

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • X Offline
                              X Offline
                              xenon
                              wrote on 29 Jan 2024, 18:50 last edited by xenon
                              #15

                              I wonder how much the political stability of China is linked to the state of the economy.

                              The Chinese seem to weight real estate heavily in their savings portfolios.

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • T Offline
                                T Offline
                                taiwan_girl
                                wrote on 5 Feb 2024, 15:15 last edited by
                                #16

                                Some more bad news for China economy. The below article looks at how small/medium size exporters are really hurting.

                                https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-tumbling-prices-push-some-exporters-brink-2024-02-04/

                                A 1 Reply Last reply 5 Feb 2024, 17:35
                                • MikM Away
                                  MikM Away
                                  Mik
                                  wrote on 5 Feb 2024, 16:40 last edited by
                                  #17

                                  They're coming here through Mexico.

                                  https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-border-mexico-chinese-migrants-60-minutes/

                                  “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • T taiwan_girl
                                    5 Feb 2024, 15:15

                                    Some more bad news for China economy. The below article looks at how small/medium size exporters are really hurting.

                                    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-tumbling-prices-push-some-exporters-brink-2024-02-04/

                                    A Offline
                                    A Offline
                                    Axtremus
                                    wrote on 5 Feb 2024, 17:35 last edited by
                                    #18

                                    @taiwan_girl said in China Post Pandemic Economy - Not Good:

                                    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-tumbling-prices-push-some-exporters-brink-2024-02-04/

                                    From the article:

                                    About 180 million people work in export-related jobs, commerce ministry data from 2022 shows.

                                    That's more than half the size of the US population including children and retirees!

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • A Offline
                                      A Offline
                                      Axtremus
                                      wrote on 6 Feb 2024, 20:02 last edited by
                                      #19

                                      https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/06/investing/china-stocks-rally-government-stimulus/index.html

                                      Chinese stocks staged their biggest rally in years Tuesday, after the country’s sovereign wealth fund said it would step up buying shares as officials scramble to draw a line under a three-year market rout.

                                      Not surprised that the CCP intervened, it's a matter of time and intensity.

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • A Offline
                                        A Offline
                                        Axtremus
                                        wrote on 8 Feb 2024, 13:41 last edited by
                                        #20

                                        Deflation in China

                                        https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/08/business/china-deflation.html?unlocked_article_code=1.T00.lDmZ.SrPVzDatq3a4

                                        China Deflation Alarms Raised by Falling Prices for Food and Cars
                                        In addition to consumer price declines in January, wholesale prices fell last month, and have been down in every month since October 2022.

                                        Doctor PhibesD 1 Reply Last reply 8 Feb 2024, 13:48
                                        • A Axtremus
                                          8 Feb 2024, 13:41

                                          Deflation in China

                                          https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/08/business/china-deflation.html?unlocked_article_code=1.T00.lDmZ.SrPVzDatq3a4

                                          China Deflation Alarms Raised by Falling Prices for Food and Cars
                                          In addition to consumer price declines in January, wholesale prices fell last month, and have been down in every month since October 2022.

                                          Doctor PhibesD Offline
                                          Doctor PhibesD Offline
                                          Doctor Phibes
                                          wrote on 8 Feb 2024, 13:48 last edited by Doctor Phibes 2 Aug 2024, 13:49
                                          #21

                                          @Axtremus said in China Post Pandemic Economy - Not Good:

                                          Deflation in China

                                          https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/08/business/china-deflation.html?unlocked_article_code=1.T00.lDmZ.SrPVzDatq3a4

                                          China Deflation Alarms Raised by Falling Prices for Food and Cars
                                          In addition to consumer price declines in January, wholesale prices fell last month, and have been down in every month since October 2022.

                                          Isn't that good? When talking about Bidenomics there have been constant complaints that lower inflation rates don't equate to lower prices (because apparently that isn't really obvious)

                                          Maybe if we were Communist, we'd get lower prices, and we'd all be happy!

                                          I was only joking

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