The Rise of Poland

[Renauda]

So as not to derail the CNN Trump Townhall thread I thought a separate thread was in order.

Jolly asked:

In the eternal balancing act between guns & butter and considering Germany's view of the military since WW2, has the equation slid so far towards social services that Germany can no longer field an effective military? Or pay for its own defense?

American, British and French policy since WWII up to and arguably beyond the reunification of Germany and the subsequent dissolution of the USSR, has been to keep Germany from militarizing and maintain a status quo position as a junior member of NATO. That policy only began to change slightly following the NATO conflict with Serbia and the war in Afghanistan following the Twin Towers attack and the invocation of NATO’s Article 5.

As it presently stands Germany has no real desire to rearm beyond its minimal NATO commitment. Nor am I am really convinced that France, the UK and other European NATO members really want it to rearm.

Enter Poland to fill the continental power void;

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/europes-centre-of-gravity-is-shifting-towards-poland/

While it makes sense that Poland is eager to fill the gap, you can be rest assured it is not well received in Moscow or Berlin.

[George K]

@Renauda said in The Rise of Poland:

you can be rest assured it is not well received in Moscow or Berlin.

Yeah, those memories are trans-generational.

[Renauda]

@George-K

It’s the little big things the Poles are doing that infuriate Moscow. For example this from just yesterday:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/10/poland-changes-kaliningrads-official-name-in-move-against-russification-a81086

[Mik]

Russia seems shocked that Poland would offend them. Get used to it.

[Mik]

Interesting piece on autocratic regimes in both Turkey and Poland. Not quite sure how to interpret the Polish side.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/democratic-backsliding-in-turkey-poland-is-a-threat-to-all-of-nato/ar-AA1b4gQc?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=53309096e3f14b909a98335c979ef22b&ei=20

[Renauda]

@Mik

Good piece.

Will be interesting to see what happens in the upcoming Turkish election. At 44% inflation along with the populist slow boat away from secular governance that pits urban against rural, Erdogan’s 20 year hold on power appears to be in question.

Poland is a whole other question. It is staunchly nationalist and socially conservative to the core. The anecdote that it is more Catholic than the Vatican is not all mirthful hyperbole. Like Russians and Ukrainians, Poles sleep with a history text under their pillow. As a result they are only too aware of their geographical location and the resulting vulnerability. Most of all, Poles are sceptical of Western liberalism because they feel it betrayed their nation first, in 1939 then again at Yalta five years later. What we see in Poland presently is not dissimilar to the piece that Jolly posted two days ago by Victor David Hanson that describes America’s impending Thermidorian reaction.

[Jolly]

Well, nobody ever said the Poles lacked courage or the will to fight...

[Renauda]

And since the upcoming Turkish election was mentioned, it seems that the outcome may be of great interest to the Kremlin:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65574312