Age cohorts of positive cases over time
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This is consistent with what we know but good to see. There is no question that the vulnerable have been figuring out how to protect themselves. Many continuing care, life care and nursing homes are reporting ZERO cases. This cohort contributed to 50% of all deaths.
Young people you can’t keep locked up. Period. They are largely protected from harm although as Aqua points out the more that get it the more zebras you will see by definition.
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This is consistent with what we know but good to see. There is no question that the vulnerable have been figuring out how to protect themselves. Many continuing care, life care and nursing homes are reporting ZERO cases. This cohort contributed to 50% of all deaths.
Young people you can’t keep locked up. Period. They are largely protected from harm although as Aqua points out the more that get it the more zebras you will see by definition.
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No, but if the trend is accurate and somewhat sustained it could get us close to herd immunity.
@Mik said in Age cohorts of positive cases over time:
No, but if the trend is accurate and somewhat sustained it could get us close to herd immunity.
Don’t want to depress anyone but no country is anywhere close to any kind of herd immunity which happens at about 70% seropositvity.
As an example, read this.
https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5.pdf
Spain which had a crushing load of cases in April with and has had about 30000 deaths, has a nationwide seropositivty of about 5%. Hovering around 10% in the Madrid area.
NYC has a seropositvity of about 20%
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https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.28.20142190v1Forget herd immunity. If we reach 70% you are talking about a lot of corpses with no place to bury them. It’s either a vaccine or a mutation in the genome which can save us from doom.
And Have a nice day also
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Recently I read an article quoting scientists which suggested that 15% and not 70% may already be enough for "herd immunity". Can't find the reference right now.
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Recently I read an article quoting scientists which suggested that 15% and not 70% may already be enough for "herd immunity". Can't find the reference right now.
@Klaus said in Age cohorts of positive cases over time:
Recently I read an article quoting scientists which suggested that 15% and not 70% may already be enough for "herd immunity". Can't find the reference right now.
I think the theory is that people with mild or no systems don’t produce enough antibodies to be caught by antibody tests. Assuming 40-50% of the population is asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic you would have your answer potentially to the 15% number.
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@Mik said in Age cohorts of positive cases over time:
No, but if the trend is accurate and somewhat sustained it could get us close to herd immunity.
Don’t want to depress anyone but no country is anywhere close to any kind of herd immunity which happens at about 70% seropositvity.
As an example, read this.
https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5.pdf
Spain which had a crushing load of cases in April with and has had about 30000 deaths, has a nationwide seropositivty of about 5%. Hovering around 10% in the Madrid area.
NYC has a seropositvity of about 20%
.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.28.20142190v1Forget herd immunity. If we reach 70% you are talking about a lot of corpses with no place to bury them. It’s either a vaccine or a mutation in the genome which can save us from doom.
And Have a nice day also
@bachophile said in Age cohorts of positive cases over time:
It’s either a vaccine or a mutation in the genome which can save us from doom.
And Have a nice day also
My understanding is the Joe Biden can probably save us, if he is elected.
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Recently I read an article quoting scientists which suggested that 15% and not 70% may already be enough for "herd immunity". Can't find the reference right now.
@Klaus said in Age cohorts of positive cases over time:
Recently I read an article quoting scientists which suggested that 15% and not 70% may already be enough for "herd immunity". Can't find the reference right now.
On the other end of the spectrum, if immunity is only transitory like some have suggested then herd immunity may be unachievable.
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@Klaus said in Age cohorts of positive cases over time:
Recently I read an article quoting scientists which suggested that 15% and not 70% may already be enough for "herd immunity". Can't find the reference right now.
On the other end of the spectrum, if immunity is only transitory like some have suggested then herd immunity may be unachievable.
@jon-nyc maybe.
But even with transient Titer levels of antibodies, immune memory makes a big difference when there is a rechallenge of the immune System, antibody levels rise much more dramatically and quickly. Providing the antigens remain the same.
So it is advantageous to have a some degree of previously infected out there.
The reason we need a flu shot every season is that it’s a new virus each time. This corona virus seems a lot more stable so far.
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@jon-nyc maybe.
But even with transient Titer levels of antibodies, immune memory makes a big difference when there is a rechallenge of the immune System, antibody levels rise much more dramatically and quickly. Providing the antigens remain the same.
So it is advantageous to have a some degree of previously infected out there.
The reason we need a flu shot every season is that it’s a new virus each time. This corona virus seems a lot more stable so far.
@bachophile said in Age cohorts of positive cases over time:
@jon-nyc maybe.
But even with transient Titer levels of antibodies, immune memory makes a big difference when there is a rechallenge of the immune System, antibody levels rise much more dramatically and quickly. Providing the antigens remain the same.
So it is advantageous to have a some degree of previously infected out there.
The reason we need a flu shot every season is that it’s a new virus each time. This corona virus seems a lot more stable so far.
Any chance at attenuation? If so, how long can that take?
