The Demographics of Murder
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@jolly and @mik have talked about the "culture of violence."
https://datahazard.substack.com/p/american-murder
The number that summarizes the past 2.5 years of post-BLM life in America. But why?
- 4.5% of Black Males will commit murder in their lifetime as of 2021, if we choose to do nothing about the ongoing epidemic of violence.
- 4.4% to 7.2% of yearly Black Male deaths are homicides every single year, with no exceptions, since at least 1968. Over 90% of these are Black Male-on-Black Male.
- 4.35% is the backward-looking 60-year murder victimization rate of Black Males age 15-74, based on the 410,000 actual murder victims since 1968.
- These are the low-end of what the rates could be in reality, given the large number of “unknowns” in the FBI data and the large number of “indeterminate” violent deaths coded by the CDC.
- Whatabout repeat offenders, you ask? The most extreme assumptions can bring the 4.5% down to as low as 3.3%. I ask: does that change our conclusions? Do we continue decarceration on the off-chance that only 3.3% will commit murder?
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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The twitter feed
Lots of stuff to look at.
For example, you can tell exactly where things went wrong (grin):
Traffic fatalities:
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What’s disturbing about that is the number for black women…
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@jolly and @mik have talked about the "culture of violence."
https://datahazard.substack.com/p/american-murder
The number that summarizes the past 2.5 years of post-BLM life in America. But why?
- 4.5% of Black Males will commit murder in their lifetime as of 2021, if we choose to do nothing about the ongoing epidemic of violence.
- 4.4% to 7.2% of yearly Black Male deaths are homicides every single year, with no exceptions, since at least 1968. Over 90% of these are Black Male-on-Black Male.
- 4.35% is the backward-looking 60-year murder victimization rate of Black Males age 15-74, based on the 410,000 actual murder victims since 1968.
- These are the low-end of what the rates could be in reality, given the large number of “unknowns” in the FBI data and the large number of “indeterminate” violent deaths coded by the CDC.
- Whatabout repeat offenders, you ask? The most extreme assumptions can bring the 4.5% down to as low as 3.3%. I ask: does that change our conclusions? Do we continue decarceration on the off-chance that only 3.3% will commit murder?
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Ok, so is crossing the street when you see black males approaching still racist, or is it sensible precaution?
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Math is racist.
-
@jolly and @mik have talked about the "culture of violence."
https://datahazard.substack.com/p/american-murder
The number that summarizes the past 2.5 years of post-BLM life in America. But why?
- 4.5% of Black Males will commit murder in their lifetime as of 2021, if we choose to do nothing about the ongoing epidemic of violence.
- 4.4% to 7.2% of yearly Black Male deaths are homicides every single year, with no exceptions, since at least 1968. Over 90% of these are Black Male-on-Black Male.
- 4.35% is the backward-looking 60-year murder victimization rate of Black Males age 15-74, based on the 410,000 actual murder victims since 1968.
- These are the low-end of what the rates could be in reality, given the large number of “unknowns” in the FBI data and the large number of “indeterminate” violent deaths coded by the CDC.
- Whatabout repeat offenders, you ask? The most extreme assumptions can bring the 4.5% down to as low as 3.3%. I ask: does that change our conclusions? Do we continue decarceration on the off-chance that only 3.3% will commit murder?
