The missing construction layoffs

[jon-nyc]

I like this guy’s thesis that the missing construction layoffs are the missing recession of 2022, though I’m less convinced by his reasoning why. Interesting thread all the same.

[Jolly]

Biden bucks and pent-up demand.

But...Studs are just a bump over $3 and OSB sheathing is a bump over $10. Buying at contractor price is probably 10% less.

It's the middle of winter, so those things are normally a little cheaper, but that may also foreshadow less demand.

[Mik]

I've never known a contractor to 'hoard labor' based on work that may come someday. I also question that residential contractors are going to get that much work from the infrastructure bill.

[Jolly]

@Mik said in The missing construction layoffs:

I've never known a contractor to 'hoard labor' based on work that may come someday. I also question that residential contractors are going to get that much work from the infrastructure bill.

Yep, but there are some projects being funded. They're replacing a small bridge by my home. Started this morning. Which is going to be fun, since the bayou is backed up from beaver dams and they'll be working in two feet of water.

[Mik]

And how many framers and roofers will be needed?

[Jolly]

@Mik said in The missing construction layoffs:

And how many framers and roofers will be needed?

None.

But it's still construction..... How much does housing affect the overall construction numbers?

[Mik]

I suspect a lot. But that’s a guess.