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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. Past the Tipping Point — China’s Population Decline

Past the Tipping Point — China’s Population Decline

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved General Discussion
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  • AxtremusA Away
    AxtremusA Away
    Axtremus
    wrote on last edited by
    #1

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/16/business/china-birth-rate.html

    The 2022 statistics are out: China has recorded a year of population decline. The expectation is that the decline will continue.

    India’s population is expected to surpass China’s this year.

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    • George KG Offline
      George KG Offline
      George K
      wrote on last edited by
      #2

      China also had a bad economic year, with "only" 3% growth.

      https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-economic-growth-fell-to-near-historic-lows-as-covid-took-a-bite-11673921199

      China’s economy grew at one of its slowest rates in decades last year as repeated lockdowns hammered households and businesses, emphasizing the high cost of zero-tolerance Covid-19 policies that Beijing abruptly abandoned at the end of 2022.

      China’s economy expanded 3% in 2022, the National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday, a sharp slowdown from the 8.1% pace recorded in 2021. Aside from 2020, when the economy grew only 2.2%, last year marked the worst year for gross domestic product growth in China since 1976, the year that Mao Zedong’s death ended the decade of strife known as the Cultural Revolution, according to World Bank data.

      "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

      The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

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      • AxtremusA Away
        AxtremusA Away
        Axtremus
        wrote on last edited by
        #3

        https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/20/the-last-generation-young-chinese-people-vow-not-to-have-children

        Article on how some (a lot?) of the young people in China have "low desire" to have children. One is quoted as such: "In this country, to love your child is to never let him be born in the first place." It's pretty bleak.

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        • IvorythumperI Offline
          IvorythumperI Offline
          Ivorythumper
          wrote on last edited by
          #4

          I’m interested in what is meant by “tipping point” here, esp for such a massive population.

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          • George KG Offline
            George KG Offline
            George K
            wrote on last edited by
            #5

            Link to video

            "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

            The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

            1 Reply Last reply
            • George KG Offline
              George KG Offline
              George K
              wrote on last edited by
              #6

              An interesting thread: The Chinese Nightmare.

              "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

              The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

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              • CopperC Offline
                CopperC Offline
                Copper
                wrote on last edited by
                #7

                If I was China and I knew the west knew "China's authoritarianism is going to outcompete the west economically and bring in a century of Centralized control".

                And my military was almost, but not quite, ready to go.

                I would flood the social platforms with the message "China is all but collapsing".

                But that's just me.

                And I would ask Ax to spread the word.

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                • taiwan_girlT Offline
                  taiwan_girlT Offline
                  taiwan_girl
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #8

                  I think that there are a lot of smart people in the mainland Chinese leadership. And I think that they are very aware of the problem.

                  My concern is that this decreasing (and getting older) population is going to start causing a lot of internal problems. And they will start to cause external problems to take away the focus internally on what is happening.

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                  • AxtremusA Away
                    AxtremusA Away
                    Axtremus
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #9

                    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/marriages-china-slump-historic-low-2023-06-11/

                    Marriages in China slump to historic low

                    Marriages in China dropped in 2022 to their lowest since records began, ...

                    Just 6.83 million couples completed their marriage registrations last year, data published on the website of the Ministry of Civil Affairs showed, down about 800,000 from the previous year.
                    ...

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