Some Stats...
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This is going to look like it's about Fantasy Football, but it's about more than that. Just keep reading... Man, do I enjoy reading Matthew Berry. I'm glad he's no longer in the ESPN Pay-Per-Content...
https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/article/matthew-berrys-draft-advice/matthew-berrys-100-facts-2022
We are mere days away from most fantasy football drafts.
And every fantasy manager that actually cares about winning is already doing player evaluations.
With that in mind, I'd like you to consider two quarterbacks for your fantasy team this year.
Quarterback “A” is an absolute superstar who averaged 21.7 fantasy points per full game last year. QB4 on a points per full game basis last season, it was another stellar campaign for our guy. As a starter, he's been a top-eight fantasy QB on a points per game basis every single year of his career, including three top-five finishes in the last four seasons. It's the consistency that's so great, helped by the fact he's a dual threat. He gets you points with his arm of course, but he's also sneaky with his legs. Did you know he had nine – count ‘em – NINE different games last year with over 200 passing yards and over 25 rushing yards?
Coming off a year where he averaged a career-high in passing attempts, completions and passing yards per game, expect QB “A” to keep chucking it deep all season long. Last year he was third in air yards per attempt and had the fourth highest rate of passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield. Oh, he's a gunslinger all right. His offense as a whole was top ten in total pass attempts last year, and this QB had the seventh highest deep ball rate in the NFL. Coming off yet ANOTHER Pro Bowl season, if you want this superstar as your fantasy QB this year you'll need to draft him early. He won't last long in any fantasy league that knows what they are doing.
Meanwhile, Quarterback “B” should be nowhere near your roster. He struggled horribly in his first year as a starter (when he averaged an NFL-low .38 touchdown passes per game) and while yes, he has improved some since then, still, it's been a challenge in the years following for this guy to stay on the field. He's never played every game in an NFL season including missing seven games last year. If you thought he missed more than seven last year, it's understandable since he seemed to disappear from games every week.
QB “B” had the second highest interception rate in the NFL, the fifth highest sack rate and finished 23rd of 31 qualified QBs in off-target rate. Seriously. Pick a stat, any stat, and this guy was likely towards the bottom of the league in it. His touchdown rate has declined for three straight years. He was QB16 last year in fantasy scoring and honestly I was surprised he was even that high when I looked him up. I mean come on, when you consider what a disaster it is when this guy throws is it any wonder his franchise wants to go more run-heavy this year?
They let the only wide receiver with over 600 yards or over 50 receptions from last season leave, they didn't draft or sign any additional wide receivers and they spent multiple early-round draft picks on offensive linemen. And before you think maybe this QB will run, remember those days are behind him. He's coming off a career low in rushing attempts and it's the third straight year his rushing yards have declined.
So, which Quarterback do you want?
Understand that every single thing I wrote about each player above is 100% true. Heavily researched, verified and completely accurate.
Which Quarterback do you want?
You've got 60 seconds in the draft room. Clock is ticking down. Gotta make a call and make it quick.
You've done the research, including reading about 500 stat-filled words from me on these two QBs. You're fully informed. So come on now. It should be obvious, right?
Which QB do you want?
“A” or “B”?
Oh, before you answer, you should know one last thing.
Both players are Lamar Jackson.
Yeah.
You see, I can talk up or talk down any player I want. It's a skill I learned in 15 years at ESPN and it's one I'm bringing back with me to Rotoworld. That's right. I'm back, baby.
My very job writing fantasy analysis professionally was right here, working for Rotoworld back in 1999, a job I held for almost five years. I left in 2004 to start my TalentedMrRoto website which was then bought by ESPN in 2007.
I spent the last 15 years at ESPN and I learned a great many things.
Including how to make stats say anything I want.
And I mean ANYTHING.
If I want to talk up Lamar Jackson, I talk about his per-game averages from last year and use the stats from his 11 “full” games while ignoring the one game he left early. I make sure to omit that his average last year was skewed by a few huge games as he actually scored 20+ points in just 4 of 11 games (just 36% of his games were 20pts+).
I praise his team's passing tendencies without mentioning their top two running backs tore ACLs in the pre-season and they were using street free agents for much of the year at running back, not to mention the loss of LT Ronnie Stanley. But because I didn't want to make it obvious it was Lamar, I use a decent rushing stat (the nine games of 25+ rushing yards) and didn't use a great rushing stat, like the fact he averaged 63.9 rushing yards a game last season, most by an NFL QB.
But when I need to talk Lamar down, I mention the rookie year low passing TD rate without discussing the fact that in his rookie year he primarily just ran the ball. It wasn't until his second year, the MVP year of 2019, that he really opened up as a passer. I mention the loss of Marquise Brown without talking about what a weapon tight end Mark Andrews is or that Rashod Bateman's stats are skewed because he missed time last year. And that obviously any Lamar passing stat has to be taken with a grain of salt since he gets so much value with his legs.
I use the fact he was injured last year and don't mention how insane his MVP 2019 numbers were to make it seem like his rushing production has gone down the last few years. I purposefully don't mention Baltimore spent this off-season bolstering its offensive line and all indications are they are going run heavy once again, including a lot of rushing from Lamar.
Oh yeah. Could do this all day. Because look, if you followed me over from ESPN you are already well aware but for the new kids in class you should know this: There's very little in this world I'm good at – seriously, it's a short list - but there's one thing I'm a world-class master at:
Manipulating stats to tell the story I want.
I did it at ESPN, I'm gonna do it here at NBC and it's important I tell you a secret.
I'm not alone.
Everyone does it.
Some of us admit it, many others don't, but EVERYONE does it.
They do it in fantasy football analysis, they do it in politics, protests, pop culture, office presentations and happy hour debates. They tell you the stats that support one side of an argument.
A side that is really just their opinion.
Oh, they'll claim it's unbiased and objective, but that's a total crock. There's no way around it. Even just by selecting what stat or video they show you, they are editorializing. Even if they wanted to be totally objective (and not many do), there just isn't enough time in the day to do a deep dive on every player and show you everything. There are too many stats, too much film and too many variables like coaching, play calling and teammates.
So that's why just like I have for the last 16 years, this is the very first column I write every season. And it's absolutely why I want this to be the first column I write for NBC now that I'm here.
**Because I want you to know – I want everyone to know – that I do this. That I WON'T be telling you the truth. Oh, my stats will be accurate. They just won't tell the whole story. They'll just tell you the part of the story I want you to see. They are stats designed to support my opinion. I heavily researched, studied and was informed by league source's opinion but still.
MY OPINION.**
If you take nothing else away from this column please take this. Your fantasy football success in 2022 is NOT going to be based on how much you read/watch/listen/number-crunch.
Much more important is how you interpret whatever you research: what you believe and, maybe even more crucial, what you ignore.
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He's right, of course.
There are multiple small-time guys who cover sports teams that have podcasts, blogs, YouTube channels and write for team fan sites, such as SB Nation. These guys were barely getting by, many not able to work full-time, having to take on other work just to keep the lights on.
Then came legalized sports gambling.
The people running the betting sites and the casinos want the unvarnished dope on teams, including anything these writers can dig up that may not make even regional headlines or broadcasts. These writers will do their interviews, check their sources, evaluate the All-22 NFL tape, and write a full synopsis of what's going on for their gaming employers.
For example, if they find out from one of their sources that Alvin Kamara was in the ice bath a bit longer early in the week and the Saints are cutting down his reps in practice, that's grist for the mill. This helps the gambling folks set the lines on games, using multiple streams (they hire multiple part-time guys for these reports) of information on each team.
I know two guys who cover the Saints, one who has been able to pay the down payment on his home with this money and another guy who managed to pay off his wife's medical bills and pay off some school debt.
The gaming people also make money off of these guys by distilling the information and selling it as a service to prospective betters.
Since we are establishing that all stats and data can be massaged, wonder what is the quality of the reports the betters are paying for? And...I wouldn't put it past the gaming industry to push or pull betting lines whichever they want them to go.