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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
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  3. White House Redefines Recession

White House Redefines Recession

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  • J Offline
    J Offline
    jon-nyc
    wrote on 24 Jul 2022, 22:11 last edited by jon-nyc
    #5

    Yes and no.

    The UK uses that definition, but NBER (who for some reason gets to declare recessions in the US) has always used a more holistic approach. I always figured it was because they like being the gurus who get to define them, rather than have it formulaic.

    So the WH isn’t really wrong.

    IIRC both Bush administrations (under whom the last pre-Covid recessions occurred) pushed back on the formulaic definition too, pointing to NBER.

    A simple check of Wikipedia will confirm this. Worry it was edited recently? Check an old version.

    Thank you for your attention to this matter.

    G 1 Reply Last reply 25 Jul 2022, 12:50
    • J Offline
      J Offline
      Jolly
      wrote on 24 Jul 2022, 22:14 last edited by
      #6

      That snake oil ain't sellin'.

      “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

      Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

      1 Reply Last reply
      • J Offline
        J Offline
        jon-nyc
        wrote on 24 Jul 2022, 22:17 last edited by
        #7

        Every factual assertion in my post is objectively true. Cult boy.

        Thank you for your attention to this matter.

        J 1 Reply Last reply 24 Jul 2022, 22:19
        • M Offline
          M Offline
          Mik
          wrote on 24 Jul 2022, 22:18 last edited by
          #8

          My problem, Jon, is that all this administration seems to actually do is try to point the finger elsewhere. Covid? Trump's fault. Legislative failure? Manchin's fault. Inflation? Putin's fault.

          "The intelligent man who is proud of his intelligence is like the condemned man who is proud of his large cell." Simone Weil

          J 1 Reply Last reply 24 Jul 2022, 22:42
          • J jon-nyc
            24 Jul 2022, 22:17

            Every factual assertion in my post is objectively true. Cult boy.

            J Offline
            J Offline
            Jolly
            wrote on 24 Jul 2022, 22:19 last edited by
            #9

            @jon-nyc said in White House Redefines Recession:

            Every factual assertion in my post is objectively true. Cult boy.

            You could have brought stone tablets down from the mountain.

            It still ain't gonna fly.

            “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

            Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

            1 Reply Last reply
            • M Mik
              24 Jul 2022, 22:18

              My problem, Jon, is that all this administration seems to actually do is try to point the finger elsewhere. Covid? Trump's fault. Legislative failure? Manchin's fault. Inflation? Putin's fault.

              J Offline
              J Offline
              jon-nyc
              wrote on 24 Jul 2022, 22:42 last edited by
              #10

              @Mik said in White House Redefines Recession:

              My problem, Jon, is that all this administration seems to actually do is try to point the finger elsewhere. Covid? Trump's fault. Legislative failure? Manchin's fault. Inflation? Putin's fault.

              True, that. Not sure if Biden was the first President to think of that trick. But true all the same.

              Thank you for your attention to this matter.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • M Offline
                M Offline
                Mik
                wrote on 24 Jul 2022, 22:44 last edited by
                #11

                And the truth is I don't really care whose fault things are. It could be his for that matter and I still don't really care. I care about what his administration plans to do to address the issues.

                "The intelligent man who is proud of his intelligence is like the condemned man who is proud of his large cell." Simone Weil

                J 1 Reply Last reply 24 Jul 2022, 23:02
                • M Mik
                  24 Jul 2022, 22:44

                  And the truth is I don't really care whose fault things are. It could be his for that matter and I still don't really care. I care about what his administration plans to do to address the issues.

                  J Offline
                  J Offline
                  Jolly
                  wrote on 24 Jul 2022, 23:02 last edited by
                  #12

                  @Mik said in White House Redefines Recession:

                  And the truth is I don't really care whose fault things are. It could be his for that matter and I still don't really care. I care about what his administration plans to do to address the issues.

                  That's where I think you are different from the majority of Americans. If the economic news stays bad, I don't think they'll care about the Resident's Administrations plans as much as they'll just say throw the bum out.

                  As Jon says, the buck stops on the President's desk. Rightly or wrongly.

                  “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                  Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                  X 1 Reply Last reply 26 Jul 2022, 00:18
                  • G Offline
                    G Offline
                    George K
                    wrote on 24 Jul 2022, 23:08 last edited by
                    #13

                    All you guys know that I'm no economic guru. And, because I'm not, I've always, for decades, assumed that the "two consecutive quarters of negative growth" was the definition of a recession. I'll have to look back and see where I got that terribly wrong impression.

                    How I've been misled.

                    Now, thanks to the White House, I learn that everything I through was wrong.

                    And, if I was wrong, what about the other jamokes like me who thought that same thing?

                    It's a sad thing to be ignorant, and kudos to the Biden administration for educating me and setting me on the right path of economic nomenclature.

                    "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                    The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                    L 1 Reply Last reply 26 Jul 2022, 00:31
                    • J jon-nyc
                      24 Jul 2022, 22:11

                      Yes and no.

                      The UK uses that definition, but NBER (who for some reason gets to declare recessions in the US) has always used a more holistic approach. I always figured it was because they like being the gurus who get to define them, rather than have it formulaic.

                      So the WH isn’t really wrong.

                      IIRC both Bush administrations (under whom the last pre-Covid recessions occurred) pushed back on the formulaic definition too, pointing to NBER.

                      A simple check of Wikipedia will confirm this. Worry it was edited recently? Check an old version.

                      G Offline
                      G Offline
                      George K
                      wrote on 25 Jul 2022, 12:50 last edited by
                      #14

                      @jon-nyc said in White House Redefines Recession:

                      Yes and no.

                      The UK uses that definition, but NBER (who for some reason gets to declare recessions in the US) has always used a more holistic approach. I always figured it was because they like being the gurus who get to define them, rather than have it formulaic.

                      Looking up what "holilsic" approaches NBER uses to define a recession, they include.

                      https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/recession.asp

                      • "Economic decline spread over several months" (ie GDP)
                      • A decline in real wages
                      • A decline in employment
                      • A decline in wholesale- retail sales
                      • A decline in industrial production

                      I think at least 3 of those boxes are checked.

                      "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                      The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                      L 1 Reply Last reply 26 Jul 2022, 00:38
                      • G Offline
                        G Offline
                        George K
                        wrote on 25 Jul 2022, 22:57 last edited by
                        #15

                        Just heard this: "The old adage in Washington is, 'If you're explaining, you're losing.'"

                        "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                        The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • J Jolly
                          24 Jul 2022, 23:02

                          @Mik said in White House Redefines Recession:

                          And the truth is I don't really care whose fault things are. It could be his for that matter and I still don't really care. I care about what his administration plans to do to address the issues.

                          That's where I think you are different from the majority of Americans. If the economic news stays bad, I don't think they'll care about the Resident's Administrations plans as much as they'll just say throw the bum out.

                          As Jon says, the buck stops on the President's desk. Rightly or wrongly.

                          X Offline
                          X Offline
                          xenon
                          wrote on 26 Jul 2022, 00:18 last edited by
                          #16

                          @Jolly said in White House Redefines Recession:

                          As Jon says, the buck stops on the President's desk. Rightly or wrongly.

                          Just as the founders intended?

                          J 1 Reply Last reply 26 Jul 2022, 00:34
                          • G George K
                            24 Jul 2022, 23:08

                            All you guys know that I'm no economic guru. And, because I'm not, I've always, for decades, assumed that the "two consecutive quarters of negative growth" was the definition of a recession. I'll have to look back and see where I got that terribly wrong impression.

                            How I've been misled.

                            Now, thanks to the White House, I learn that everything I through was wrong.

                            And, if I was wrong, what about the other jamokes like me who thought that same thing?

                            It's a sad thing to be ignorant, and kudos to the Biden administration for educating me and setting me on the right path of economic nomenclature.

                            L Offline
                            L Offline
                            LuFins Dad
                            wrote on 26 Jul 2022, 00:31 last edited by
                            #17

                            @George-K said in White House Redefines Recession:

                            All you guys know that I'm no economic guru. And, because I'm not, I've always, for decades, assumed that the "two consecutive quarters of negative growth" was the definition of a recession. I'll have to look back and see where I got that terribly wrong impression.

                            How I've been misled.

                            Now, thanks to the White House, I learn that everything I through was wrong.

                            And, if I was wrong, what about the other jamokes like me who thought that same thing?

                            It's a sad thing to be ignorant, and kudos to the Biden administration for educating me and setting me on the right path of economic nomenclature.

                            Two consecutive quarters of negative growth is two consecutive quarters of negative growth, no matter what you call it. The effects are still the same…

                            The Brad

                            G 1 Reply Last reply 26 Jul 2022, 00:38
                            • X xenon
                              26 Jul 2022, 00:18

                              @Jolly said in White House Redefines Recession:

                              As Jon says, the buck stops on the President's desk. Rightly or wrongly.

                              Just as the founders intended?

                              J Offline
                              J Offline
                              Jolly
                              wrote on 26 Jul 2022, 00:34 last edited by
                              #18

                              @xenon said in White House Redefines Recession:

                              @Jolly said in White House Redefines Recession:

                              As Jon says, the buck stops on the President's desk. Rightly or wrongly.

                              Just as the founders intended?

                              You tell me.

                              “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                              Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • J Offline
                                J Offline
                                jon-nyc
                                wrote on 26 Jul 2022, 00:38 last edited by jon-nyc
                                #19

                                Unless I’m mistaken, this would be the first recession to start under a democratic administration since Truman. No living TNCR member has lived through a recession that started under a Democratic President.

                                The previous 11 recessions all started under GOP presidents.

                                But that’s irrelevant, since the president doesn’t effect these things. Right Taiwan Girl Horace?

                                Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                                H 1 Reply Last reply 26 Jul 2022, 00:52
                                • G George K
                                  25 Jul 2022, 12:50

                                  @jon-nyc said in White House Redefines Recession:

                                  Yes and no.

                                  The UK uses that definition, but NBER (who for some reason gets to declare recessions in the US) has always used a more holistic approach. I always figured it was because they like being the gurus who get to define them, rather than have it formulaic.

                                  Looking up what "holilsic" approaches NBER uses to define a recession, they include.

                                  https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/recession.asp

                                  • "Economic decline spread over several months" (ie GDP)
                                  • A decline in real wages
                                  • A decline in employment
                                  • A decline in wholesale- retail sales
                                  • A decline in industrial production

                                  I think at least 3 of those boxes are checked.

                                  L Offline
                                  L Offline
                                  LuFins Dad
                                  wrote on 26 Jul 2022, 00:38 last edited by
                                  #20

                                  @George-K said in White House Redefines Recession:

                                  @jon-nyc said in White House Redefines Recession:

                                  Yes and no.

                                  The UK uses that definition, but NBER (who for some reason gets to declare recessions in the US) has always used a more holistic approach. I always figured it was because they like being the gurus who get to define them, rather than have it formulaic.

                                  Looking up what "holilsic" approaches NBER uses to define a recession, they include.

                                  https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/recession.asp

                                  • "Economic decline spread over several months" (ie GDP)
                                  • A decline in real wages
                                  • A decline in employment
                                  • A decline in wholesale- retail sales
                                  • A decline in industrial production

                                  I think at least 3 of those boxes are checked.

                                  I’m not sure about that.

                                  *Wages are all over the place, but my bet is that they are likely up year over year…

                                  *Employment levels are still high. Or, unemployment filings are still low…There are a lot of unfilled job postings out there, leading to more wage competition.

                                  *A lot of retail sales are still trying to fill back orders… there may be fewer people making new purchase decisions now but it’s not necessarily being noticed as retailers are filling prior commitments.

                                  The Brad

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • L LuFins Dad
                                    26 Jul 2022, 00:31

                                    @George-K said in White House Redefines Recession:

                                    All you guys know that I'm no economic guru. And, because I'm not, I've always, for decades, assumed that the "two consecutive quarters of negative growth" was the definition of a recession. I'll have to look back and see where I got that terribly wrong impression.

                                    How I've been misled.

                                    Now, thanks to the White House, I learn that everything I through was wrong.

                                    And, if I was wrong, what about the other jamokes like me who thought that same thing?

                                    It's a sad thing to be ignorant, and kudos to the Biden administration for educating me and setting me on the right path of economic nomenclature.

                                    Two consecutive quarters of negative growth is two consecutive quarters of negative growth, no matter what you call it. The effects are still the same…

                                    G Offline
                                    G Offline
                                    George K
                                    wrote on 26 Jul 2022, 00:38 last edited by
                                    #21

                                    @LuFins-Dad said in White House Redefines Recession:

                                    Two consecutive quarters of negative growth is two consecutive quarters of negative growth, no matter what you call it. The effects are still the same…

                                    "Tis but thy name that is my enemy;
                                    Thou art thyself, though not a Montague.
                                    What’s Montague? It is nor hand, nor foot,
                                    Nor arm, nor face, nor any other part
                                    Belonging to a man. O, be some other name!
                                    What’s in a name? That which we call a rose
                                    By any other name would smell as sweet;
                                    So Romeo would, were he not Romeo call’d,
                                    Retain that dear perfection which he owes
                                    Without that title. Romeo, doff thy name,
                                    And for that name which is no part of thee
                                    Take all myself."

                                    I get Jon's point as to what the "official" definition would be according to NERB. My question stands, however: Why is yesterday the first time I heard the "revised" definition? Yeah, it was "revised" a long time ago, but I never heard it until yesterday.

                                    "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                    The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                    J 1 Reply Last reply 26 Jul 2022, 00:44
                                    • G George K
                                      26 Jul 2022, 00:38

                                      @LuFins-Dad said in White House Redefines Recession:

                                      Two consecutive quarters of negative growth is two consecutive quarters of negative growth, no matter what you call it. The effects are still the same…

                                      "Tis but thy name that is my enemy;
                                      Thou art thyself, though not a Montague.
                                      What’s Montague? It is nor hand, nor foot,
                                      Nor arm, nor face, nor any other part
                                      Belonging to a man. O, be some other name!
                                      What’s in a name? That which we call a rose
                                      By any other name would smell as sweet;
                                      So Romeo would, were he not Romeo call’d,
                                      Retain that dear perfection which he owes
                                      Without that title. Romeo, doff thy name,
                                      And for that name which is no part of thee
                                      Take all myself."

                                      I get Jon's point as to what the "official" definition would be according to NERB. My question stands, however: Why is yesterday the first time I heard the "revised" definition? Yeah, it was "revised" a long time ago, but I never heard it until yesterday.

                                      J Offline
                                      J Offline
                                      jon-nyc
                                      wrote on 26 Jul 2022, 00:44 last edited by jon-nyc
                                      #22

                                      @George-K

                                      He has half a point. I very much remember the press sticking with the two quarter definition when both Bush administrations made the identical argument Biden is now.

                                      What he’s missing, of course, is any commentary as to whether the right wing press went along with the GOP administration arguments at the time (hint: they did).

                                      Does Mr Erickson think the RW press became propagandists in 90 and again in 2001? He’s oddly silent on that point.

                                      Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                                      G J 2 Replies Last reply 26 Jul 2022, 00:54
                                      • J jon-nyc
                                        26 Jul 2022, 00:38

                                        Unless I’m mistaken, this would be the first recession to start under a democratic administration since Truman. No living TNCR member has lived through a recession that started under a Democratic President.

                                        The previous 11 recessions all started under GOP presidents.

                                        But that’s irrelevant, since the president doesn’t effect these things. Right Taiwan Girl Horace?

                                        H Offline
                                        H Offline
                                        Horace
                                        wrote on 26 Jul 2022, 00:52 last edited by
                                        #23

                                        @jon-nyc said in White House Redefines Recession:

                                        Unless I’m mistaken, this would be the first recession to start under a democratic administration since Truman. No living TNCR member has lived through a recession that started under a Democratic President.

                                        The previous 11 recessions all started under GOP presidents.

                                        But that’s irrelevant, since the president doesn’t effect these things. Right Taiwan Girl Horace?

                                        I'm sorry, I can't hear you over your deafeningly loud consistency of dissecting the veracity of all anti-Biden narratives.

                                        Education is extremely important.

                                        J 2 Replies Last reply 26 Jul 2022, 01:00
                                        • J jon-nyc
                                          26 Jul 2022, 00:44

                                          @George-K

                                          He has half a point. I very much remember the press sticking with the two quarter definition when both Bush administrations made the identical argument Biden is now.

                                          What he’s missing, of course, is any commentary as to whether the right wing press went along with the GOP administration arguments at the time (hint: they did).

                                          Does Mr Erickson think the RW press became propagandists in 90 and again in 2001? He’s oddly silent on that point.

                                          G Offline
                                          G Offline
                                          George K
                                          wrote on 26 Jul 2022, 00:54 last edited by
                                          #24

                                          @jon-nyc said in White House Redefines Recession:

                                          What he’s missing, of course, is any commentary as to whether the right wing press went along with the GOP administration arguments at the time (hint: they did).

                                          The "right wing press" is not the White House. I don't recall, and I'll be happy to be corrected , is any statements from the WH saying "nothing to see here, because the definition doesn't apply."

                                          Does Mr Erickson think the RW press became propagandists in 90 and again in 2001? He’s oddly silent on that point.

                                          AFIAK Erickson was 15 years old in 1990, and 26 in 2001. I doubt the WH definitions of economic terms were on his radar at those times. When I was those ages, I was more concerned about (cough) other things.

                                          I suppose that, since he purports himself as a pundit, he should go back 32 and 21 years to examine the press, but to say he's "oddly" silent is a bit of a stretch.

                                          By the way, was there a "RW press 32 years ago?

                                          "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                          The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

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