The Ukraine Effect

[Jolly]

Regardless of who wins in Ukraine, what is the ultimate effect upon the Russian military?

[Mik]

Hard to say without knowing the military establishment's views. Right now, they have to be running very short on weaponry. My big question is can their economy withstand rebuilding it to support further adventures.

I think the larger question is what does the rest of the world do in terms of economic relations with Russia in the future. If Putin or his ilk stays in power it would be unwise to widely open trade with them. We've seen what they will do with it. They may become very beholden to China for any semblance of economic health.

The sad thing is it didn't have to be like this.

[xenon]

Turns out they’re a third rate military power and they were always a second rate economic power.

They’re not quite North Korea, but moved much closer to it in terms of perception.

[xenon]

Also, the concept of coordinated economic war got a big boost.

[Mik]

Yep. We've been told for decades that future wars will be economic, even as far back as in my poli sci classes. Now we see it coming to fruition, but I don't think anyone envisioned it being used against a major nuclear power willing to employ WWII style warfare.

[Horace]

Doesn't take much squinting to see WW2 as economic. Probably goes back forever, maybe requiring slightly more squinting the further back you go.

[Jolly]

Something that caught my attention the other day...Spain's economy is pretty close to Russia's in terms of total GDP. I don't think they (Russia) have the money to fund a military modernization. And they are falling farther and farther behind on technology that works, even some stuff they discovered, such as Stealth.

Russia has relied somewhat on the old Stalin quote about quantity. That's why they still field obsolete equipment and still have stockpiles of some Soviet era weapons...Look at the release of WW2 Mosin-Nagant rifles on the market just a few years ago...They flooded the market so bad, you could get a decent shooter for less than $50, retail.

Obsolete is looking pretty bad, nowadays.

[Renauda]

@Mik

They may become very beholden to China for any semblance of economic health.

Although Putin does not yet understand it, Xi already owns not only him but Russia as well - lock, stock & barrel.

The red banner will again fly over the Kremlin.

Xi is just hoping that Putin’s War will bleed the West white as well.

[Mik]

There was a Clancy book where China invaded Russia, The Bear and the Dragon, which China called the 'Northern resource Zone'. Not far from the truth.