The Ukraine war thread
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@jon-nyc
And with this they expect to achieve what, exactly?This is like watching a tree fall in slow but inexorable motion.
Is Putin causing all this to happen on his own? Does he have anything like honest (if insane) support, or only yes-men feathering their own nests or staving off the Putin wrath by going through the motions?
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Latest word is that Putin plans to deliver (another) speech on Sept 30. On that occasion, he will announce the results of the (cough) referendum in the Eastern states, and therefore justification for annexation of those areas.
Once those are part of "Russia," escalation, either by more mobilization or by use of different weaponry will be on the table. After all, the Motherland is being attacked, dontcha know.
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From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 26 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"The Kremlin is attempting to message its way out of the reality of major problems in the execution of its “partial mobilization,” but its narratives are unlikely to placate Russians who can perceive the real mistakes all around them.
"The Kremlin is deflecting blame for the Russian government’s failure to abide by its own stated criteria for mobilization and exemptions onto the failing bureaucratic institutions responsible for the mobilization. The Kremlin is downplaying the widespread violations of the mobilization law as individual errors of local authorities, claiming to correct these errors as citizens call attention to them. The violations are clearly too common to be merely the result of individual errors, however, and Russian citizens can see them all too clearly.
"Unlike Russian failures in Ukraine, which the Kremlin has been able to minimize or deflect because its citizens cannot see them directly, violations of the mobilization decree are evident to many Russians. Word of these violations does not even require access to media or social media, because they are occurring in so many locations and victims’ families can spread their anguish by word of mouth."
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CSTO is falling apart too. One of the rare good articles in Rolling Stone anymore.
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The link below is to yesterday’s episode of the BBC news interview Hard Talk. The guest is Evgenny Popov a Russian Politician, TV personality and staunch Putin loyalist. Well worth the 23 minute watch. A prime example of the Russian mentality that Ukraine and NATO are having to deal with at the moment:
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True enough, however if you stick with it her gives you an accurate picture of the fantasy world Putin has created. More explicitly Popov openly admits that Russia is at open war with the West. That should be a wake up for any one in the West who thinks otherwise. I suggest you watch the full interview. Besides Stephen Sackur is very good at his job as host- he does not throw softballs at his subjects.
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Since 2014 when pro Russian elements began a civil war of secession against Ukraine. It is a complicated mess. Suffice to say Russian foreign policy regarding Ukraine is at the core. I’ll try to find a good link that summarises the causes.
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Im glad I visited Russia in 2019. I can't imagine ever going back. Unless there's a total regime change.
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Dick Francis, who wrote a big bunch of books based on horse racing, wrote a book set in Russia (I think mostly Moscow). His main character befriended a Russian guy. One time they were having a convo about the awfulness of the country, and the hero asked the Russian why he stayed. The guy replied, "Love the country, hate the regime."
I have a feeling that would describe the hearts and minds of many Russians.
During the Cold War I kept thinking that under different circumstances, Americans and Russians would make good friends. The people, I mean, not the governments.
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From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 27 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"Russian authorities in occupied parts of Ukraine’s Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts completed their falsified annexation “referenda” on September 27 and implausibly claimed that each sham referendum received between 87 and 99% approval from Ukrainian residents. Russian officials pre-ordained and falsified the approval ratings and alleged voter participation rates for the sham referenda while coercing Ukrainian civilians in occupied territories to performatively vote for Russian annexation, as ISW has previously reported."
"It's Not Who Votes That Counts, It's Who Counts The Votes." -- Josef Stalin
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@George-K said in The Ukraine war thread:
@Renauda also, any thoughts about what he claims are examples of Ukrainian aggression in the East? That's been a hotbed of instability for a long time, right?
Here you go George. Lot’s of reading but it’s free:
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Russian soldiers phoned home from Ukraine.
Ukrainian police intercepted some of the calls.
The New York Times got the audio recordings, and cross checked them with other information sources.The phone calls are harrowing.
EDIT: the phone calls were made in the beginning of the war, some of them speak of taking Kyiv.
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@George-K said in The Ukraine war thread:
@Axtremus said in The Ukraine war thread:
The phone calls are harrowing.
Behind the NYT paywall, but another source, quoting the article said that these calls were from MARCH. Can you imagine what it's like now?
Yes, indeed those phone calls were from the early part of the war.