The Ukraine war thread
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Interesting essay.
Going Nuclear:
https://samf.substack.com/p/going-nuclear?r=17wfy3&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
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I saw that earlier today. The problem with Erdogan’s Turkey is that it is all over the place. Today it warns Russia, last week it was indicating Putin is ready to negotiate, the week before that it was warning its NATO partners to stop provoking Russia. Before that it was threatening the US over conditions on the sale F-16 fighters. Last spring it was blocking the entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO.
On the other hand it brokered the deal enable Ukraine to export its grain to the Middle East and Africa.
Seems to be something of a rogue or maverick NATO ally at best.
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Great piece on the overall political situation by Matt Yglesias.
https://www.slowboring.com/p/russias-military-and-economic-strategy?utm_source=email
You were warned.
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Good piece, indeed. Seems that Putin hasn't reached the "It's not worth it" phase yet.
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the partial mobilization of his country’s military Wednesday, calling up reservists in a significant escalation of his war in Ukraine after battlefield setbacks left the Kremlin facing growing pressure to act.
In a rare national address, the Russian leader also backed plans for Russia to annex occupied areas of southern and eastern Ukraine, appearing to threaten nuclear retaliation if Kyiv continues its efforts to reclaim that land.
It came just a day after after four Russian-controlled areas announced they would stage votes this week on breaking away from Ukraine and joining Russia, in a plan Kyiv and its Western allies dismissed as a desperate “sham” aimed at deterring a successful counteroffensive by Ukrainian troops.
Vowing that Russia would use all the means at its disposal to protect what it considers its territory, Putin accused the West of nuclear blackmail and warned: “This is not a bluff.”
Speaking after Putin, defense minister Sergei Shoigu said an initial 300,000 reservists would be called up.
Only those with relevant combat and service experience will be mobilized, Shoigu said. Another clause in the decree, which came into effect immediately, prevents most professional soldiers from terminating their contracts and leaving service until the partial mobilization is no longer in place.
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Great piece on the overall political situation by Matt Yglesias.
https://www.slowboring.com/p/russias-military-and-economic-strategy?utm_source=email
@jon-nyc said in The Ukraine war thread:
Great piece on the overall political situation by Matt Yglesias.
https://www.slowboring.com/p/russias-military-and-economic-strategy?utm_source=email
Excellent piece.
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Great piece on the overall political situation by Matt Yglesias.
https://www.slowboring.com/p/russias-military-and-economic-strategy?utm_source=email
Author raises good points particularly how on sanctions render Russia’s cash reserves meaningless and how the Kremlin’s policy has of turning off the gas will ultimately be Putin’s undoing.
Stack Iglesia’s essay with the following and I think a fairly accurate picture of what’s going on inside Russia can be made:
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From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 19 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"Urgent discussion on September 19 among Russia’s proxies of the need for Russia to immediately annex Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts (much of the latter of which is not under Russian control) suggests that Ukraine’s ongoing northern counter-offensive is panicking proxy forces and some Kremlin decision-makers.
"The legislatures of Russia’s proxies in occupied Ukraine, the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR), each called on their leadership to “immediately” hold a referendum on recognizing the DNR and LNR as Russian subjects.
"Russian propagandist and RT Editor-in-Chief Margarita Simonyan spoke glowingly of the call, referring to it as the “Crimean scenario.” She wrote that by recognizing occupied Ukrainian land as Russian territory, Russia could more easily threaten NATO with retaliatory strikes for Ukrainian counterattacks, “untying Russia’s hands in all respects.”
From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 21 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of “partial mobilization” on September 21 reflected many problems Russia faces in its faltering invasion of Ukraine that Moscow is unlikely to be able to resolve in the coming months.
"Putin’s order to mobilize part of Russia’s “trained” reserve, that is, individuals who have completed their mandatory conscript service, will not generate significant usable Russian combat power for months. It may suffice to sustain the current levels of Russian military manpower in 2023 by offsetting Russian casualties, although even that is not yet clear. It will occur in deliberate phases, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in an interview on September 21, likely precluding any sudden influx of Russian forces that could dramatically shift the tide of the war.
"Russia’s partial mobilization will thus not deprive Ukraine of the opportunity to liberate more of its occupied territory into and through the winter."
Success is measured by your discipline and inner peace. – Mike Ditka
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Photos circulated on Russian social media channels on Wednesday, Sept. 21, showing an unusual, unmanned boat that washed up on a beach near a Russian navy base in the city of Sevastopol, within occupied Crimea. Shaped like a kayak, the vessel is painted in a subdued color scheme and equipped with a white fixture, somewhat resembling a periscope, that holds a forward-facing sensor. In the available photos from social media, there are no visible markings that identify the craft’s nationality.
According to Russian social media posts, the unusual craft washed up on a beach not far from the entrance to Sevastopol’s harbor — roughly 150 miles from coastline under Ukrainian government control.
Ukraine has not yet claimed ownership of the unmanned craft. From the available photos, it’s not clear whether the small boat contained an explosive device. However, Russian authorities reportedly took the drone boat out to sea and blew it up — a decision that subsequently led some open-source intelligence investigators to assume the craft was carrying an explosive warhead.
A photo published to the Russian Telegram channel “Military Columnist” on Wednesday, Sept. 21, 2022, purportedly shows the detonation of a maritime drone on the Black Sea. Photo via Telegram.
In Russian-language Telegram channels, Mikhail Razvozhayev, the governor of Russian-occupied Sevastopol, is quoted as saying: “A part of an unmanned vehicle was discovered, which was examined by experts. After the survey was completed, this apparatus was destroyed at sea by an explosion. No one was hurt.”A photo published to the Russian Telegram channel “Military Columnist” on Wednesday claimed to show the drone’s detonation over open water “in the Black Sea near Sevastopol.”
If the beached mystery craft were, in fact, an armed Ukrainian aquatic drone, it would be another headache for Russian forces on the illegally annexed Ukrainian peninsula. Over the past several months, the expanding reach of Ukrainian missiles and airborne drones have put Russian forces in Crimea on the defensive and forced the transfer of some key Russian military hardware out of the area.
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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The obscenity of the Russian referenda:
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From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 21 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of “partial mobilization” on September 21 reflected many problems Russia faces in its faltering invasion of Ukraine that Moscow is unlikely to be able to resolve in the coming months.
"Putin’s order to mobilize part of Russia’s “trained” reserve, that is, individuals who have completed their mandatory conscript service, will not generate significant usable Russian combat power for months. It may suffice to sustain the current levels of Russian military manpower in 2023 by offsetting Russian casualties, although even that is not yet clear. It will occur in deliberate phases, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in an interview on September 21, likely precluding any sudden influx of Russian forces that could dramatically shift the tide of the war.
"Russia’s partial mobilization will thus not deprive Ukraine of the opportunity to liberate more of its occupied territory into and through the winter."
From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 22 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"The Kremlin’s heavy-handed approach to partial mobilization may successfully meet the Kremlin’s internal quota of mobilized personnel but is unlikely to generate effective soldiers and is prompting significant domestic backlash for little gain.
"Russian authorities are forcibly recruiting Russian citizens to fight in Ukraine on flimsy pretexts, violating the Kremlin’s promise to recruit only those with military experience. Russian authorities are also demonstrably mobilizing personnel (such as protesters) who will enter the war in Ukraine with abysmal morale.
"The Kremlin's heavy-handed approach to partial mobilization will likely exacerbate domestic resentment of a measure that would have been unpopular even if implemented without the harsh approaches observed in the last 24 hours.
Success is measured by your discipline and inner peace. – Mike Ditka
