The Ukraine war thread
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More activity across the border.
After a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in the northeast of the country, the messy war that Russian President Vladimir Putin started is now being fought directly on his doorstep, with artillery strikes hitting military targets in Russia and Russian officials in cities and towns along the border ordering hasty evacuations.
On Saturday, a new round of strikes hit the Belgorod region in Western Russia, killing at least one person and wounding two.
On Friday, Ukraine reportedly struck the base of the Russian 3rd Motorized Rifle Division near Valuyki, just nine miles north of the Russia—Ukraine border. Russian officials did not acknowledge that a military target was hit but said one civilian died, and the local electrical grid experienced a temporary disruption.
Russia blamed the attacks on Ukraine, but Kyiv did not claim responsibility for striking targets in Russian territory.Kyiv has assured U.S. officials that donated weapons would not be used to strike targets inside Russia proper. But Ukrainian forces are now so close to the border that they can hit targets using their own less-advanced weaponry.
That Russian citizens are starting to seriously feel the impact of the war directly is another new source of pressure on Putin, who returned home this weekend from a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Uzbekistan where he faced a remarkable public rebuke by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and questions about the war from Chinese President Xi Jinping.Valuyki and Krasny Khutor are among dozens of small settlements in Russia that the Russian military uses as a staging ground, putting them in the middle of Moscow’s faltering invasion and Kyiv’s mounting counteroffensive.
The local governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov, has ordered the evacuation of hundreds of people and shut down schools in border towns over the past months. But now the authorities in Belgorod are under increasing pressure from unnerved residents who are experiencing what many Ukrainians have lived with for months: nighttime explosions, destroyed homes and sometimes casualties.
“I’m asking once again, where is our army, the one that must be protecting us?” Belgorod resident Tatyana Bogacheva wrote on Gladkov’s VKontakte social media page. “We are on the border; they are shooting at us, so we need an army and protection. Who will wake up the President?” -
"My pronouns are FA/FO." - Mik, 2024
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From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 18 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly relying on irregular volunteer and proxy forces rather than conventional units and formations of the Russian Federation Armed Forces. ISW has previously reported that Putin has been bypassing the Russian higher military command and Ministry of Defense leadership throughout the summer and especially following the defeat around Kharkiv Oblast.
"Putin’s souring relationship with the military command and the Russian (MoD) may explain in part the Kremlin’s increasing focus on recruiting ill-prepared volunteers into ad-hoc irregular units rather than attempting to draw them into reserve or replacement pools for regular Russian combat units."
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Ukraine sank a Russian barge with military personnel and weapons
(translated page)
Near Nova Kakhovka, the Ukrainian military sank an enemy barge with military personnel, equipment and weapons.
Source : operational command " South "
Verbatim : "Attempts to set up an alternative crossing across the Dnipro, in the area of Novaya Kakhovka and Kozatskyi, were unsuccessful.
The guidance of the crossing could not withstand fire control and stopped. The barge, loaded with weapons, equipment and personnel, came under fire and replenished the underwater fleet of the occupiers.""Replenished the underwater fleet..." LOL.
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Erdogan says Putin is willing to end the war. But at what cost?
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From the Institute for the Study of War's Sept 19 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"Urgent discussion on September 19 among Russia’s proxies of the need for Russia to immediately annex Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts (much of the latter of which is not under Russian control) suggests that Ukraine’s ongoing northern counter-offensive is panicking proxy forces and some Kremlin decision-makers.
"The legislatures of Russia’s proxies in occupied Ukraine, the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR), each called on their leadership to “immediately” hold a referendum on recognizing the DNR and LNR as Russian subjects.
"Russian propagandist and RT Editor-in-Chief Margarita Simonyan spoke glowingly of the call, referring to it as the “Crimean scenario.” She wrote that by recognizing occupied Ukrainian land as Russian territory, Russia could more easily threaten NATO with retaliatory strikes for Ukrainian counterattacks, “untying Russia’s hands in all respects.”
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"My pronouns are FA/FO." - Mik, 2024
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It’s more for domestic consumption inside Russia. He senses that the war and its political and economic consequences are beginning to erode popular support of his presidency. He also knows that at this point Ukraine is not prepared to cede the occupied territories or is the West prepared to ease sanctions. The Russian price for peace will be unacceptable to Kyiv and unpalatable to most NATO members. He will use that domestically to justify escalating the war. Putin as much as said so last week when he met with Modi and stated that Ukrainians do not want a diplomatic solution but rather a military solution. Once more he is setting the stage to blame Ukraine and the West for his war and its consequences inside Russia and beyond.
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Interesting essay.
Going Nuclear:
https://samf.substack.com/p/going-nuclear?r=17wfy3&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
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"My pronouns are FA/FO." - Mik, 2024
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I saw that earlier today. The problem with Erdogan’s Turkey is that it is all over the place. Today it warns Russia, last week it was indicating Putin is ready to negotiate, the week before that it was warning its NATO partners to stop provoking Russia. Before that it was threatening the US over conditions on the sale F-16 fighters. Last spring it was blocking the entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO.
On the other hand it brokered the deal enable Ukraine to export its grain to the Middle East and Africa.
Seems to be something of a rogue or maverick NATO ally at best.
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Great piece on the overall political situation by Matt Yglesias.
https://www.slowboring.com/p/russias-military-and-economic-strategy?utm_source=email
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Good piece, indeed. Seems that Putin hasn't reached the "It's not worth it" phase yet.
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the partial mobilization of his country’s military Wednesday, calling up reservists in a significant escalation of his war in Ukraine after battlefield setbacks left the Kremlin facing growing pressure to act.
In a rare national address, the Russian leader also backed plans for Russia to annex occupied areas of southern and eastern Ukraine, appearing to threaten nuclear retaliation if Kyiv continues its efforts to reclaim that land.
It came just a day after after four Russian-controlled areas announced they would stage votes this week on breaking away from Ukraine and joining Russia, in a plan Kyiv and its Western allies dismissed as a desperate “sham” aimed at deterring a successful counteroffensive by Ukrainian troops.
Vowing that Russia would use all the means at its disposal to protect what it considers its territory, Putin accused the West of nuclear blackmail and warned: “This is not a bluff.”
Speaking after Putin, defense minister Sergei Shoigu said an initial 300,000 reservists would be called up.
Only those with relevant combat and service experience will be mobilized, Shoigu said. Another clause in the decree, which came into effect immediately, prevents most professional soldiers from terminating their contracts and leaving service until the partial mobilization is no longer in place.
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@jon-nyc said in The Ukraine war thread:
Great piece on the overall political situation by Matt Yglesias.
https://www.slowboring.com/p/russias-military-and-economic-strategy?utm_source=email
Excellent piece.
