The Ukraine war thread
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I haven't followed this thread closely, so forgive if this content is repetitious. It is from Foreign Affairs magazine, published three days ago. To read the rest of the article, you can furnish your email and they will unlock it for you for free. Go here: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/playing-fire-ukraine
"Western policymakers appear to have reached a consensus about the war in Ukraine: the conflict will settle into a prolonged stalemate, and eventually a weakened Russia will accept a peace agreement that favors the United States and its NATO allies, as well as Ukraine. Although officials recognize that both Washington and Moscow may escalate to gain an advantage or to prevent defeat, they assume that catastrophic escalation can be avoided. Few imagine that U.S. forces will become directly involved in the fighting or that Russia will dare use nuclear weapons.
"Washington and its allies are being much too cavalier. Although disastrous escalation may be avoided, the warring parties’ ability to manage that danger is far from certain. The risk of it is substantially greater than the conventional wisdom holds. And given that the consequences of escalation could include a major war in Europe and possibly even nuclear annihilation, there is good reason for extra concern."
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I did not read the whole article, but what you quoted makes good sense. While it seems unlikely that it would go nuclear, that is no guarantee. The whole situation is illogical, at least from a Western point of view. Prediction becomes much more difficult once you have gone through the looking glass.
What I keep wondering is what are we not seeing that we should.
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I did not read the whole article, but what you quoted makes good sense. While it seems unlikely that it would go nuclear, that is no guarantee. The whole situation is illogical, at least from a Western point of view. Prediction becomes much more difficult once you have gone through the looking glass.
What I keep wondering is what are we not seeing that we should.
Here's a little more of the article: "Furthermore, given each side’s determination to achieve its goals, there is little chance of a meaningful compromise. The maximalist thinking that now prevails in both Washington and Moscow gives each side even more reason to win on the battlefield so that it can dictate the terms of the eventual peace. In effect, the absence of a possible diplomatic solution provides an added incentive for both sides to climb up the escalation ladder. What lies further up the rungs could be something truly catastrophic: a level of death and destruction exceeding that of World War II."
The author, John Meersheimer, sounds really frightened.
Success is measured by your discipline and inner peace. – Mike Ditka
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There has been no way to guarantee nuclear weapons will not be used, and has not been since 1945. Given their systems' performance to date, I rather doubt Putin has a yen to find out how good or bad his nukes are.
Still, it has to be a factor in decisions. We can't just say anything that has any such risk at all cannot be done.
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Considered by some in the West to be "Putin's brain,"[13] or "Putin's philosopher," Dugin is believed by some to have been the brains behind Russia's annexation of Crimea[14] as part of Dugin's advocacy for Ukraine becoming "a purely administrative sector of the Russian centralized state", which he refers to as Novorossiya.[15] Dugin is also believed to have laid the ideological groundwork for the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.[16] Dugin calls for an illiberal totalitarian Russian Empire to control the Eurasian continent from Dublin to Vladivostok to challenge America and "Atlanticism".[17][18]
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Here's a little more of the article: "Furthermore, given each side’s determination to achieve its goals, there is little chance of a meaningful compromise. The maximalist thinking that now prevails in both Washington and Moscow gives each side even more reason to win on the battlefield so that it can dictate the terms of the eventual peace. In effect, the absence of a possible diplomatic solution provides an added incentive for both sides to climb up the escalation ladder. What lies further up the rungs could be something truly catastrophic: a level of death and destruction exceeding that of World War II."
The author, John Meersheimer, sounds really frightened.
The author, John Meersheimer, sounds really frightened.>
Reading the author’s name, Mearsheimer, is enough for me, thank you.
Better to spend the next 2.5 hours listening to someone who actually understands Russia and this totally unprovoked and unnecessary war:
Link to video -
The author, John Meersheimer, sounds really frightened.>
Reading the author’s name, Mearsheimer, is enough for me, thank you.
Better to spend the next 2.5 hours listening to someone who actually understands Russia and this totally unprovoked and unnecessary war:
Link to videoI'm always glad to receive your recommendations, and I will read Kotkin. But I'm interested to know your objection to John Meersheimer. Is it that he's unacceptable, or merely that he's not the best available?
Success is measured by your discipline and inner peace. – Mike Ditka
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"Hell no! We won't go!"
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/08/18/they-re-not-counting-on-people-making-it-home
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I'm always glad to receive your recommendations, and I will read Kotkin. But I'm interested to know your objection to John Meersheimer. Is it that he's unacceptable, or merely that he's not the best available?
Mearsheiner’s thesis is that the the West, and in particular the US, is determined to establish a global hegemony. He is currently regarded as a leading scholar in the Realist School of International Relations. In short, NATO expansion and the spread of liberal democracy into former Soviet republics is a direct result of this US policy towards establishing a global hegemony. Ironically, the Realist school looks back to George F. Kennan, the father of The Policy of Containment of the USSR as its inspiration. As former student in 1980’s of the Cold War , Kennan was indeed a major influence on many of us, myself included, who looked up to his writings on the USSR during Stalin through to the early years of the Brezhnev era. His publications in later years particularly during Gorbachev and into the Yeltsin period are the basis for Mearsheiner and followers of the Realist School.
Needless to say I do not buy into Mearsheimer’s claims. Russia is where it is today owing to choices made by its political leaders, Putin in particular. I do agree with Kotkin, the time of financial and political appeasement is over. Putin and his kleptocrats must be held to account. We are in a cold war with Russia for the foreseeable future. Hopefully the collective West has the ongoing resolve to contain future Russian expansion and stop it on the Ukrainian frontier. Right now Ukrainians are fighting and dying to keep Russia contained, the least we can do is supply them the means to defend themselves.
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Mearsheiner’s thesis is that the the West, and in particular the US, is determined to establish a global hegemony. He is currently regarded as a leading scholar in the Realist School of International Relations. In short, NATO expansion and the spread of liberal democracy into former Soviet republics is a direct result of this US policy towards establishing a global hegemony. Ironically, the Realist school looks back to George F. Kennan, the father of The Policy of Containment of the USSR as its inspiration. As former student in 1980’s of the Cold War , Kennan was indeed a major influence on many of us, myself included, who looked up to his writings on the USSR during Stalin through to the early years of the Brezhnev era. His publications in later years particularly during Gorbachev and into the Yeltsin period are the basis for Mearsheiner and followers of the Realist School.
Needless to say I do not buy into Mearsheimer’s claims. Russia is where it is today owing to choices made by its political leaders, Putin in particular. I do agree with Kotkin, the time of financial and political appeasement is over. Putin and his kleptocrats must be held to account. We are in a cold war with Russia for the foreseeable future. Hopefully the collective West has the ongoing resolve to contain future Russian expansion and stop it on the Ukrainian frontier. Right now Ukrainians are fighting and dying to keep Russia contained, the least we can do is supply them the means to defend themselves.
@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
Right now Ukrainians are fighting and dying to keep Russia contained, the least we can do is supply them the means to defend themselves.
If your perspective is the correct one, this seems inescapable.
Thank you for your thoughtful expanded reply. The devil with taking on a new subject for study is that one is perpetually a student and seemingly never in a position to critique. It's really true that when the student is ready, the teacher will appear. I appreciate it.
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Car bomb Moscow kills daughter of Russian nationalist, Alexander Dugin:
Interesting fellow, Alexander Dugin. Not the first time either his name has popped up in the Western press. Look his name up. No friend of Ukraine or any other former Soviet republics except maybe, Belarus. Really hates ethnic minorities in Russia.
Too bad about the daughter though. Am sure that in her case, it was nothing personal.
Dad was lucky to have changed his travel plans at the last minute, eh?
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I'm seeing conflicting reports on how much influence Dugin really has with the Kremlin and Putin. Some say that he's really all braggadocio and there's not really much there there.
However, his positions seem to align with those of Putin.
Darya Dugina was also a supporter of the war. She was in the wrong car at the right time - she wasn't the target.
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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I'm seeing conflicting reports on how much influence Dugin really has with the Kremlin and Putin. Some say that he's really all braggadocio and there's not really much there there.
However, his positions seem to align with those of Putin.
Darya Dugina was also a supporter of the war. She was in the wrong car at the right time - she wasn't the target.
Direct influence over Putin? Most certainly none. Still, Dugin is a Russian media personality and has a wide following over there. Self appointed successor to Solzhenitsyn although he is intellectually not even close to the Nobel laureate.
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Direct influence over Putin? Most certainly none. Still, Dugin is a Russian media personality and has a wide following over there. Self appointed successor to Solzhenitsyn although he is intellectually not even close to the Nobel laureate.
@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
Direct influence over Putin?
I LOLed when I read that
Self appointed successor to Solzhenitsyn
Self-appointed - that tells you everything you need to know.
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@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
Direct influence over Putin?
I LOLed when I read that
Self appointed successor to Solzhenitsyn
Self-appointed - that tells you everything you need to know.
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From the Institute for the Study of War's Aug 22 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment:
"Russian occupation officials in Zaporizhia Oblast have obliquely declared the region’s independence from Ukraine by falsely identifying Ukrainian citizens entering the occupied region as temporary asylum seekers. Head of the Zaporizhia Oblast occupation administration Yevheny Balitsky signed an order that designates Ukrainian citizens arriving in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast as temporary asylum seekers based on Russian law. The order requires the registration of Ukrainian and Russian citizens based on their place of residence or place of arrival in the Russian-occupied parts of Zaporizhia Oblast and requires the distribution of temporary identification forms for all “stateless persons.” Ukrainians and Russians may register if they present proof of their temporary asylum application. This decree has various implications under both international law and domestic Russian law. International law states that a refugee is an individual from outside the country (or who is stateless) who is seeking “temporary asylum” in another country to escape persecution. Russian law defines a refugee as a person "who is outside of his/her country of nationality or habitual residence.” Neither of these statuses properly apply to the majority of people crossing from unoccupied Ukraine into occupied Zaporizhia.
"Russian occupation authorities are thus falsely classifying all Ukrainians entering occupied territories in Zaporizhia Oblast as refugees escaping persecution in Ukraine."
For the rest: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-22
