The Ukraine war thread

[George K]

Much much more at the link.

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MARCH 17

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces continue to make steady territorial gains around Mariupol and are increasingly targeting residential areas of the city.
• Ukrainian forces northwest of Kyiv launched several local counterattacks and inflicted heavy damage on Russian forces.
• Ukrainian forces repelled Russian operations around Kharkiv and reported killing a regimental commander.
• Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia may have expended nearly its entire store of precision cruise missiles in the first twenty days of its invasion.
• Russian forces deployed unspecified reserve elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army and Baltic Fleet Naval Infantry to northeastern Ukraine on March 17.
• Russia may be parceling out elements of the reserve force that could conduct an amphibious operation along the Black Sea coast to support ongoing assaults on Mariupol, further reducing the likelihood of a Russian amphibious assault on Odesa.
• Ukrainian forces shot down 10 Russian aircraft—including five jets, three helicopters, and two UAVs—on March 16, and Ukrainian forces continue to successfully contest Russian air operations.

Russian forces face mounting difficulties replacing combat casualties and replacing expended munitions. The Ukrainian General Staff stated on March 17 that Russian forces will begin another wave of mobilization for the Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR) 1st Army Corps on March 20.[2] Ukrainian intelligence continued to report Russian forces face difficulties manning both combat and support units and increasing desertion rates.[3] The General Staff further reported that Russian forces are increasingly using indiscriminate weapons against residential areas because they used almost their entire supply of “Kalibr” and “Iskander” cruise missiles in the first 20 days of the invasion.[4] It is unclear if the Ukrainian General Staff means Russian forces have used almost all precision munitions earmarked for the operation in Ukraine or almost all missiles in Russia’s total arsenal—though likely the former.

[jon-nyc]

[Horace]

5%ers that needed to be removed.

[Mik]

This is an interesting interview and supports Jon's tweet..

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/putin-has-already-begun-to-cannibalize-his-own-regime-says-investigative-journalist/vi-AAVd6R3?ocid=msedgntp

[George K]

Today's Russian v Ukrainian losses compared to two days ago.

[Renauda]

@Mik

Similar to your link above:

https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/03/18/war-in-ukraine-day-23-russian-army-faces-increasing-desertion-rates-moves-to-exterminate-mariupols-civilian-infrastructure/

[Mik]

Thanks. Looks like good reporting.

[George K]

@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:

Thanks. Looks like good reporting.

Indeed. It also cites the website I mentioned that tracks losses on both sides.

[George K]

[George K]

[LuFins Dad]

It's like watching March Madness and the 16 seed has made it to the Elite 8!

[George K]

@LuFins-Dad said in The Ukraine war thread:

It's like watching March Madness and the 16 seed has made it to the Elite 8!

For me, at least, it's fascinating to watch the losses climb.

Even if the Ukrainian numbers are under-reported, the Russian ones are accurate because of numbered identification of the lost materiel.

249 tanks in 24 days? Wow.

[jon-nyc]

@George-K said in The Ukraine war thread:

@LuFins-Dad said in The Ukraine war thread:

It's like watching March Madness and the 16 seed has made it to the Elite 8!

For me, at least, it's fascinating to watch the losses climb.

Even if the Ukrainian numbers are under-reported, the Russian ones are accurate because of numbered identification of the lost materiel.

249 tanks in 24 days? Wow.

750 tank crew probably got toasted with the tanks.

[Jolly]

An interesting video from Gun Jesus...

Link to video

[Catseye3]

@jon-nyc We lost fewer Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan over 20 years than Russia has lost in Ukrainian in 3 weeks.

So after I opened my new phone and it shared that strong thunderstorms are predicted in New Jersey, which I'm grateful for because I really needed to know that down here in Virginia this late at night, I saw this header: "Is Vlad Putin going over the edge?" Before I could read the rest my new phone did something else weird and shut down.

I don't want to open my new phone up again. Once a day is more than enough. So if you want to know more about Putin going over the edge or thunderstorms in New Jersey, YOYO.

[George K]

Bill Roggio on air superiority:

[Jolly]

@Catseye3 said in The Ukraine war thread:

@jon-nyc We lost fewer Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan over 20 years than Russia has lost in Ukrainian in 3 weeks.

So after I opened my new phone and it shared that strong thunderstorms are predicted in New Jersey, which I'm grateful for because I really needed to know that, I saw this header: "Is Vlad Putin going over the edge?" Before I could read the rest my new phone did something else weird and shut down.

I don't want to open my new phone up again. Once a day is more than enough. So if you want to know more about Putin going over the edge or thunderstorms in New Jersey, YOYO.

Interesting theory I heard on talk radio this morning...The host was saying that the Ukraine Invasion was a big story and should be covered as such, but believing that the American public can walk and chew bubblegum at the same time, thought that some stories such as record inflation, etc., were being undercovered on purpose. The MSM has a shiny new bauble to take Americans minds off of other things...

[LuFins Dad]

Individuals are smart. Put the smart individuals in a group and they are less smart. Put the individuals in a huge group and they are idiots.

Particularly over the past 10 years, I’ve worked under the belief that the mob is wrong A LOT more often than they are right. The more passionate and sure they are in their rightness, the more wrong they typically are. I’ve also believed that the answer to most questions is not on one extreme or the other, it’s typically somewhere in the middle.

So while I have been aghast at what’s going on in Ukraine and support the full end of hostilities on Russia’s part, the more that I see EVERYBODY wholeheartedly supporting Ukraine with such passion and fervor, the more the public believes everything that Ukraine = Good and Russia = Evil, the more I want to pull back and say “Wait a minute, what’s really going on?”

[Renauda]

@LuFins-Dad

What’s really going on? Listen to what Putin says and watch what he does. Read what Dr. George and Mik have posted here. Do some research beyond mainstream slick media and decide which of the two belligerents represents a clear and present danger or existential threat to political and economic stability which one of the two is a threat to NATO. Finally ask yourself whether you believe Ukraine is a fully sovereign nation.

[Aqua Letifer]

@LuFins-Dad said in The Ukraine war thread:

So while I have been aghast at what’s going on in Ukraine and support the full end of hostilities on Russia’s part, the more that I see EVERYBODY wholeheartedly supporting Ukraine with such passion and fervor, the more the public believes everything that Ukraine = Good and Russia = Evil, the more I want to pull back and say “Wait a minute, what’s really going on?”

You're taking that way too far in my opinion. It's not that you don't know "what's really going on," it's that mobs don't do nuance.

There are things Ukraine and the rest of the world could have done to prevent this. And we've done other things to aggravate Russia.

But the mob is still right about Russia.