The Ukraine war thread
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"My pronouns are FA/FO." - Mik, 2024
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@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
Sounds pretty credible. We will see.
This guy is keeping track of Russian and Ukrainian losses - but only those with photo-documentation of said losses.
He claims a total of 736 Russian tanks lost as of tonight.
By his count
20 T90s
132 T80sThe rest are T70s or older/inferior.
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Over 40? No problemo...
https://news.yahoo.com/putin-signs-law-scrapping-military-090818055.html
Always remember, Operation Valkyrie was an act of sedition.
Warning: I post things that interest me. Read and comment at your own discretion. -
@Jolly it sure smacks of desperation, but the numeric advantage that the Russians have is substantial. OTOH, training will play a HUGE role, and the ability to deliver combat-ready recruits within weeks, who are middle-aged, well...
Into the grinder.
Ukraine claims 30K KIA. Add MIA, captured and injured, you're over 100K soldiers. It can't be too long before this starts to resonate with the folks back home.
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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So far Putin has been relying on his colonial troops - non Russian ethnics from the Caucasus and Siberia to feed into his meat grinder. The ethnic Russians making up the senior NCO’s and officers for flavour. Looks like he’s now turning some older ones who may have received better basic training at one time in the past.
“Little by little I am learning the art of being quite content by doing very little slowly” ~ Lionel Hardcastle
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@Renauda what's your overall sense of how things are going?
My impression, just from what I see on Twitter and the news, is that the fight in the East is at least a stalemate, with the Russians making slow progress. OTOH, the rate of attrition might slow, or even reverse that.
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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As I stated the other day the weight of Russian numbers is beginning to tell in the Donbas regions. If the Russians take it, and I believe they will regardless of the cost in human life, then what? Sue for an armistice on the Kremlin’s terms? I do not for a moment believe that the Kremlin is prepared to withdraw so much as a square yard of Ukrainian land from what it has occupied since 2014.
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The Tide Is Turning Toward Russia
The evidence is overwhelming. Russia’s new military strategy is starting to bear fruit. Just as the interest of the world starts to wane, the Russian army is starting to exert its will on the battlefields of eastern Ukraine. This might be startling and surprising news to many Americans.
Back when Ukraine dominated the Google charts, it was militarily ascendant. It hadn’t just stopped Russia’ initial drive against Kyiv, it had completely routed Russian forces in the northern Ukraine. It not only inflicted staggering losses on the Russian military, it had chased its forces back to the start line. The Ukrainian capital was safe, and much of the striking power of the Russian army lay in ruins on the streets and in suburbs outside Kyiv.
But if you know anything about Russian military history, you know this early setback is nothing new. For more than a century its army has made a habit of failing early before it regroups, recenters around its strength—overwhelming firepower—and gradually (and brutally) exerts its will. And that’s exactly what seems to be happening now.
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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But if you know anything about Russian military history, you know this early setback is nothing new. For more than a century its army has made a habit of failing early before it regroups, recenters around its strength—overwhelming firepower—and gradually (and brutally) exerts its will. And that’s exactly what seems to be happening now.
Which is why this writer predicted exactly this, after the initial setbacks. Right?
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"My pronouns are FA/FO." - Mik, 2024
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@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
But the economic pressures are mounting, additionally in Europe as it copes with some 6 million Ukrainian refugees and struggles to find ways to wean itself off Russian oil and gas.
I don't know if I buy this. In the short-term, sure. But Ukranians can work. They're skilled up, and many of them have adapted very well to working "remotely" (i.e., working in bunkers or in other countries because their houses were firebombed). They have a lot to bring to the table, and many of them won't even need to look for jobs. Add to that the businesses they might be bringing with them, and I think they're far more of an asset than a liability.
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All depends on Putin’s endgame or long term objectives. If he has given up on taking Ukraine or attaining regime change in Kyiv and now only looking to take the Donbas and the south then yes the author is correct. If Putin still wants to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and link with Transnistria then the author is wrong. In the long term Russia will not prevail.
The best that come from if this war is a military and political stalemate that will result in a fragile armistice for years to come. I would maintain that Putin’s original objectives, whatever they were on 24 February, were lost in the first two to three weeks of the war. So I find the author’s overall argument, not all that compelling in light of what we actually know at this point in time.
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Russia is apparently fielding 50 year old T-62s. So obsolete.
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Yeah, but casualties...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/10/ukraine-casualty-rate-russia-war-tipping-point
