The Ukraine war thread
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wrote on 15 May 2022, 12:05 last edited by
Two predictions:
- In the near future, Russia will declare victory and cease combat operations.
- It's not going to be pleasant for any Russian supporters left within the borders if Ukraine, democracy be damned.
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A fascinating thread on the botched river crossing by the Russians. Lots of theory on securing the location, obscuring what you're doing, etc.
How it worked out for the Russians:
A more in depth analysis of what went wrong here.
wrote on 15 May 2022, 20:38 last edited by@George-K said in The Ukraine war thread:
A fascinating thread on the botched river crossing by the Russians. Lots of theory on securing the location, obscuring what you're doing, etc.
NYT is saying 400+ Russian KIA...
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wrote on 15 May 2022, 20:39 last edited by
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wrote on 15 May 2022, 21:15 last edited by
To me it sounds like the preparation for a subsequent "We have eliminated the Nazi threat, hence we are done and can go home" statement to cover up the defeat.
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To me it sounds like the preparation for a subsequent "We have eliminated the Nazi threat, hence we are done and can go home" statement to cover up the defeat.
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wrote on 15 May 2022, 22:51 last edited by Renauda
I agree with both of you. Seems to me also that he is saying that what remains of Ukraine can go ahead and remain a militarised and nazified puppet of the USA. All this was the USA’s fault anyway.
Cold War rules, baby: Brezhnev Doctrine Revisited.
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wrote on 16 May 2022, 11:10 last edited by
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wrote on 17 May 2022, 11:14 last edited by
Putin involved in war ‘at level of colonel or brigadier’
Vladimir Putin has become so personally involved in the Ukraine war that he is making operational and tactical decisions “at the level of a colonel or brigadier”, according to western military sources.
The Russian president is helping determine the movement of forces in the Donbas, they added, where last week the invaders suffered a bloody defeat as they tried on multiple occasions to cross a strategic river in the east of Ukraine.
The sources added that Putin is still working closely with Gen Valery Gerasimov, the commander of the Russian armed forces, in contrast to claims made by Ukraine last week that the military chief had been sidelined.
“We think Putin and Gerasimov are involved in tactical decision making at a level we would normally expect to be taken by a colonel or a brigadier,” the military source said, referring to the ongoing battle in the east of Ukraine.
Moscow’s armies have so far failed to achieve a breakthrough in the Donbas, where they have been mounting an offensive for a month that has failed several times to encircle the smaller Ukrainian forces.
No further detail to back up the statement was provided, although it was implied the assessment about Putin’s close personal involvement was based on intelligence that had been received.
Colonels in the US army and brigadiers in the British army typically command a brigade, units made up of a handful of battalions – the latter of which is equivalent to the smallest operating unit in the Russian army.
Russia’s military operates in a more top down fashion compared to western counterparts, with instructions typically sent to generals in the field. But Moscow’s faltering invasion has meant that it has been forced to send generals closer to the frontline, where up to 12 have been killed, according to the Ukrainian armed forces.
Ben Barry, a former brigadier in the British army, and a land warfare expert at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, said: “A head of government should have better things to do than make military decisions. They should be setting the political strategy rather than getting bogged down in day to day activity”.
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wrote on 17 May 2022, 12:26 last edited by
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wrote on 17 May 2022, 12:30 last edited by
Hm, sounds too extreme. Not even Hitler did things like that (AFAIK).
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wrote on 17 May 2022, 13:11 last edited by
Why not? They've slaughtered many Ukrainian civilians that way.
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wrote on 17 May 2022, 13:13 last edited by
@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
Why not? They've slaughtered many Ukrainian civilians that way.
Being cruel to the enemy is one thing. Being cruel to the own people is in a quite different league. If this has really happened - which I doubt - word will get around to very angry babushkas very quickly and backfire.
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Putin involved in war ‘at level of colonel or brigadier’
Vladimir Putin has become so personally involved in the Ukraine war that he is making operational and tactical decisions “at the level of a colonel or brigadier”, according to western military sources.
The Russian president is helping determine the movement of forces in the Donbas, they added, where last week the invaders suffered a bloody defeat as they tried on multiple occasions to cross a strategic river in the east of Ukraine.
The sources added that Putin is still working closely with Gen Valery Gerasimov, the commander of the Russian armed forces, in contrast to claims made by Ukraine last week that the military chief had been sidelined.
“We think Putin and Gerasimov are involved in tactical decision making at a level we would normally expect to be taken by a colonel or a brigadier,” the military source said, referring to the ongoing battle in the east of Ukraine.
Moscow’s armies have so far failed to achieve a breakthrough in the Donbas, where they have been mounting an offensive for a month that has failed several times to encircle the smaller Ukrainian forces.
No further detail to back up the statement was provided, although it was implied the assessment about Putin’s close personal involvement was based on intelligence that had been received.
Colonels in the US army and brigadiers in the British army typically command a brigade, units made up of a handful of battalions – the latter of which is equivalent to the smallest operating unit in the Russian army.
Russia’s military operates in a more top down fashion compared to western counterparts, with instructions typically sent to generals in the field. But Moscow’s faltering invasion has meant that it has been forced to send generals closer to the frontline, where up to 12 have been killed, according to the Ukrainian armed forces.
Ben Barry, a former brigadier in the British army, and a land warfare expert at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, said: “A head of government should have better things to do than make military decisions. They should be setting the political strategy rather than getting bogged down in day to day activity”.
wrote on 17 May 2022, 14:09 last edited by Renauda@George-K said in The Ukraine war thread:
If accurate, it is a sign things are not going to plan. Tsar Nicholas got himself involved at the front in WWI in a way that only hindered his generals. Stalin became personally involved following the Battle of Moscow resulting in the Rzhev meat grinder and the disaster at Kharkov. He learned his lesson after the latter and stepped back instead focussing his attentions on industrial, agriculture, transportation and infrastructure in support of the military effort.
No surprise then if Putin comes out this as Generalissimo Putin and exchanges his Saville Row business suit for a Marshal’s uniform. Bad sign.
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wrote on 17 May 2022, 14:22 last edited by
This was recently broadcast on Russian TV and shows that the Kremlin’s domestic messaging is beginning to break down and reality creep in:
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This was recently broadcast on Russian TV and shows that the Kremlin’s domestic messaging is beginning to break down and reality creep in:
wrote on 17 May 2022, 14:41 last edited by@Renauda I saw that earlier. Most interesting, no?
If you believe the numbers, Russia has lost more than 25K KIA. Assuming a 3:1 ratio of injured, captured, that's 100K soldiers taken out of action.
Even if that number is inflated twofold, that's still 50K removed from action.
I would assume that families are beginning to hear about loved ones killed, injured, or missing. Word will spread, and perhaps this account that you posted is confirmation of that.
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@Renauda I saw that earlier. Most interesting, no?
If you believe the numbers, Russia has lost more than 25K KIA. Assuming a 3:1 ratio of injured, captured, that's 100K soldiers taken out of action.
Even if that number is inflated twofold, that's still 50K removed from action.
I would assume that families are beginning to hear about loved ones killed, injured, or missing. Word will spread, and perhaps this account that you posted is confirmation of that.
wrote on 17 May 2022, 16:26 last edited by RenaudaPossibly although Russian officials and media are today hailing the evacuation of Avtozaval
Steel works as a resounding victory on a par with Stalingrad. As well, countries supporting Ukraine are no longer being deemed as unfriendly. Instead they are now named as “hostile”. -
Possibly although Russian officials and media are today hailing the evacuation of Avtozaval
Steel works as a resounding victory on a par with Stalingrad. As well, countries supporting Ukraine are no longer being deemed as unfriendly. Instead they are now named as “hostile”.wrote on 17 May 2022, 16:29 last edited by@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
As well, countries supporting Ukraine are no longer being deemed as unfriendly. Instead they are now considered “hostile”.
In diplomat-world, is that a serious escalation of rhetoric?
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@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
As well, countries supporting Ukraine are no longer being deemed as unfriendly. Instead they are now considered “hostile”.
In diplomat-world, is that a serious escalation of rhetoric?
wrote on 17 May 2022, 16:37 last edited by RenaudaCertainly more weighted and accusative for domestic consumption.
In diplomacy though par for the course in terms of the propensity towards hyperbole from the Kremlin. Ominously, though we may just be seeing the end of the beginning of this war in Europe.
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wrote on 22 May 2022, 00:56 last edited by Renauda
Russia smuggling its own weapons from Iraq:
Edit: I now see that this article was from 12 April. Old hat but the first I heard of it was today.
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wrote on 22 May 2022, 12:48 last edited by