The Ukraine war thread
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If I could stop all the violence going on in Ukraine right now (as well as violence anywhere else in the world, for that matter), I would.
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"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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I think Putin would be crazy to have his military attack one or more NATO nations because I don't think his military is ready to take on NATO forces.
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@MainerMikeBrown said in The Ukraine war thread:
I think Putin would be crazy to have his military attack one or more NATO nations because I don't think his military is ready to take on NATO forces.
His military wasn’t ready to take on Ukrainian forces. What Putin seems to do best is kick the shit out of any of his own people who disagree with him and persuade the rest of them that it’s for their own good.
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Since Putin's military wasn't ready to take on Ukrainian forces, than how is his military supposed to take on NATO forces?
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On the diplomatic front, the article surveys global responses to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and points out that many populous countries refuse the take side (some discussion on why), hence if weighted by population, only a "minority" of the world condemns Russia. Most of them are not taking side, including India and Indonesia, the two most populous democracies in the world.
Various reasons (justified or not) were cited by various countries on why they do not want to take side. One reference to Cuba stood out, a parallel comparing Russia's unease with having a democratic Ukraine at its border to the USA's unease with having a communist Cuba so close to the USA. First time I've seen this argument reported in American press.
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That Cuban analogy has been around for some years particularly among US analysts. One of its leading proponents is John Mearsheimer. I am surprised you haven’t come across it before as Mearsheimer is widely quoted throughout the English language media.
For the record, I do not believe it to be a valid comparison in the Russia Ukraine War.
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Now Germany has promised to deliver some much-needed artillery. From what I understand, the "Panzerhaubitze 2000" is pretty decent.
In December 2013, Raytheon and the German Army completed compatibility testing for the M982 Excalibur extended range guided artillery shell with the PzH 2000. Ten Excaliburs were fired at ranges from 9 to 48 km. Shells hit within 3 m of their targets, with an average miss distance of 1 m at 48 km.
Average miss distance of 1m at 48km? I have no idea how that compares to other similar systems, but that sounds pretty impressive to me. Oh, I just see that this accuracy is only when this particular super-expensive shell is used. Now I wonder how accurate the "normal" shells are.
I still wish we'd deliver much more weapons, and faster, but at least it's moving in the right direction. I'm afraid, though, that the time window in which the weapons can help is slowly closing.
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The M-777 155mm howitzer the U.S. is sending to Ukraine is notable for a few things...
- There is titanium used in certain parts, making the gun lighter than the Russian 152mm howitzer. The M-777 is air mobile.
- The M-777 out ranges the Russian gun.
- The U.S. is sending enough rounds, that the tubes will be shot out before the ammo is exhausted. What the U.S. is not doing, is supplying Copperhead rounds.
A good crew can emplace the gun in a little over ten minutes, then fire five rounds per minute using the M-777's GPS system.
Always remember, Operation Valkyrie was an act of sedition.
Warning: I post things that interest me. Read and comment at your own discretion. -
In the meantime, the Ukranians are getting replacements. Wonder what the pipeline from Russia looks like?
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Remember, these numbers are only the losses that can be documented with photo verification. I'm sure the losses are higher, much higher than this.
The other thing to remember is that, for example, it's not just destroyed materiel....
For Russia:
- Tanks (600, of which destroyed: 313, damaged: 17, abandoned: 49, captured: 221)
- Armoured Fighting Vehicles (329, of which destroyed: 161, damaged: 1, abandoned: 37, captured: 130)
- Infantry Fighting Vehicles (656, of which destroyed: 395, damaged: 6, abandoned: 46, captured: 209)
Lots and lots of captured equipment that will be returned to the fight. I remember seeing a story claiming that the number of tanks that Ukraine has is now actually larger than at the beginning of the war.
For Ukraine:
- Tanks (149, of which destroyed: 64, damaged: 1, abandoned: 8, captured: 76)
- Armoured Fighting Vehicles (88, of which destroyed: 33, abandoned: 4, captured: 52)
- Infantry Fighting Vehicles (106, of which destroyed: 53, damaged: 3, abandoned: 9, captured: 41)
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Rumours are swirling in Moscow that a number of former generals and KGB officials are preparing to oust Russia’s president Vladimir Putin and plan to end the war in Ukraine, which is increasingly seen across Russia as a strategic mistake and, above all, an economic disaster.
The top of Putin’s former employer – the Russian security service FSB – is said to be so frustrated about the lack of military progress in Ukraine that it has reached out to a number of generals and former army officials, according to various analysts and local media reports.
In particular a group called the ‘Siloviki’ – which comprises of former FSB officers who are active in Russian politics – is said to be pushing hard to replace Putin, together with former officers from the GRU, KGB and FSO, other Russian intelligence units.
The idea a coup may be imminent is further strengthened by social media activity across Russia and Eastern Europe, which has gone into overdrive in the last 24 hours.
Moreover, analysts in and outside Russia have said all signs are there that Putin will face a coup soon.
The Russian president is reportedly “very worried” and has tightened security in and around the Kremlin.
“Does it matter? It matters a lot,” said Russian security expert Andrei Soldatov told The Center for European Policy Analysis.
“The Russian President has been bracing for a coup for some weeks as has faced fierce criticism over his “special operation” in Ukraine and he has purged around 150 of his spies over the constant failures,” Soldatov explained.
“This is the very first time the siloviki are putting distance between themselves and the President. Which opens up all sorts of possibilities.”
Russian security expert Andrei SoldatovnoneMoreover, rumours are also going round Putin’s health has taken a hit since the start of the war. On a number of videos the Russian president looks tired and irritated.
It has become evident that the relationship between the FSB and Putin has deteriorated since the start of the war.
Last month, two senior officers in the FB, were put under house arrest by Putin.
Andrei Soldatov who runs, the well-informed investigative website Agentura, reported that Sergei Beseda, the head of the Fifth Service – the FSB’s foreign intelligence branch – and his deputy had been detained and put under house arrest.
The move was seen as a clear sign Putin is deeply concerned about the FSB’s role in the offensive against Ukraine and he fears forces within the intelligence apparatus may be working against him, Western officials told the Agentura platform.
“Both men have played a major role in intelligence operations against Ukraine for several years and highly likely played a major role in the planning for the invasion,” one said.
“There could be significant changes at senior levels in the FSB.”
Russian analyst Alexey Muraviev is also convinced that the Russian President is facing a coup from his top military and intelligence chiefs.
Muraviev told Sky News Australia that an attempt to remove Putin may be imminent because “I think that there have been tensions between Russia and the intelligence community and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.”
“Clearly, there’s been a clear error of judgment that was made and it was probably driven by Putin himself about the situation in Ukraine.”
Russian analyst Alexey Muravievnone
“I think that sort of false narrative was presented to them by the Supreme Commander in Chief, and when it fired back when the Russians began taking heavy casualties, Putin began quietly blaming the security services,” he continued.
“I don’t think went really well also because he’s coming from within the security apparatus.”
“About the initial planning and the initial phase of the invasion where the Russian military naturally assume that they’re going there as liberators rather than the invaders,” he explained.
When approached by City A.M., no one at the Kremlin was available to comment.
