The Ukraine war thread

[Mik]

I don’t think he believes it, he just tries to sell it. With normal humans it may have value, but Putin is not by any means a normal human.

[Renauda]

While he’s trying to sell it (or something to whom, no one knows for certain), Putin is slowly drowning him in a spoonful of water.

[Mik]

Indeed. Why should he quit? He still has at least a tenuous hold on Russia and in a war of attrition he will probably win. Not a bad approach if you don't care how many Russians you lose.

[Renauda]

With Putin, it is never about the mass expenditure of human capital. In fact I am sure he adheres religiously to Stalin’s alleged quote:

"A single death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic.”

[Mik]

Those who forget history....

(applies to all parties)

[Axtremus]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/21/world/europe/ukraine-russia-us-peace-plan.html?unlocked_article_code=1.208.qP_m.hyCR3PeKDQ8T

The 28-point proposal [from the USA] favors Russia in pivotal aspects, including requiring Ukraine to cede territory and cap the size of its postwar army, while offering financial and geopolitical incentives to Moscow.

@Renauda ... your thoughts?

[Mik]

It’s delusional.

[Wim]

@Mik Sheer madness.

[Renauda]

@Axtremus said in The Ukraine war thread:

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/21/world/europe/ukraine-russia-us-peace-plan.html?unlocked_article_code=1.208.qP_m.hyCR3PeKDQ8T

The 28-point proposal [from the USA] favors Russia in pivotal aspects, including requiring Ukraine to cede territory and cap the size of its postwar army, while offering financial and geopolitical incentives to Moscow.

@Renauda ... your thoughts?

I don’t think there’s much in it that I didn’t already anticipate in one form or another. It certainly rewards Putin’s unprovoked aggression of the past eleven years against Ukraine. It also gives Putin the time and opportunity he needs in order to finish off the country once and for all at a future date of his choosing. Think of it as a 21 century version of the Ribbentrop Molotov pact. It is not a lasting or just peace for Ukraine but rather a temporary non aggression pact between Russia and the US. It is nothing more than an armistice on Moscow’s maximalist terms that no one outside of the Kremlin or the Oval Office can like or trust.

In the meantime, here is a link to Lawrence Friedman’s excellent analysis of what we know:

https://open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/the-witkoff-dmitriev-peace-plan-annotated?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

[Renauda]

According to this former Russian diplomat, Putin will not accept the 28 point plan either because it is too generous to Kyiv and gives too much power to the POTUS:

The final section of the plan is especially revealing: it puts forward the establishment of a so-called “Peace Council” led by President Donald Trump to oversee compliance. This arrangement is utterly unacceptable to Putin, as it places Trump in the position of supervising and assessing the Russian leader’s actions. Putin is waging war to prove that he has an equal right to shape global decisions alongside the U.S. president and other world leaders. He is fighting for imagined respect, for a status of equality — or primacy, even — among global actors. In this worldview, putting anyone above himself, especially someone as unpredictable as Trump, would be humiliating and a signal of weakness.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/11/21/trumps-peace-plan-favors-russia-putin-still-wont-accept-it-a91209

[Mik]

That makes perfect sense if you are Vlad. All he has to do is keep dancing, pretending to be interested in peace plans and continue what he wants to do anyway. At the very least he will garner ever more concessions with each iteration.

[Renauda]

Former US Ambassador to Ukraine, John Herbst weighs in on the proposal:

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-expert-conversation-separating-signal-from-noise-in-trumps-ukraine-peace-plan/

[Mik]

I think he is spot on. Seize the assets and arm Ukraine to the teeth.