The Ukraine war thread

[Mik]

He's just throwing shit against the wall to see if anything sticks.

[Renauda]

I don’t believe that for a minute. War diplomacy is not a jam session to see what sticks to the wall.

[Mik]

Normally, no, it isn't. but we're pretty short on normal here. I don't think Trump can conceive of someone NOT wanting to make a deal.

[Renauda]

You may be right… after all, Trump still thinks Putin is his trusted friend.

[Mik]

I don’t think he believes it, he just tries to sell it. With normal humans it may have value, but Putin is not by any means a normal human.

[Renauda]

While he’s trying to sell it (or something to whom, no one knows for certain), Putin is slowly drowning him in a spoonful of water.

[Mik]

Indeed. Why should he quit? He still has at least a tenuous hold on Russia and in a war of attrition he will probably win. Not a bad approach if you don't care how many Russians you lose.

[Renauda]

With Putin, it is never about the mass expenditure of human capital. In fact I am sure he adheres religiously to Stalin’s alleged quote:

"A single death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic.”

[Mik]

Those who forget history....

(applies to all parties)

[Axtremus]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/21/world/europe/ukraine-russia-us-peace-plan.html?unlocked_article_code=1.208.qP_m.hyCR3PeKDQ8T

The 28-point proposal [from the USA] favors Russia in pivotal aspects, including requiring Ukraine to cede territory and cap the size of its postwar army, while offering financial and geopolitical incentives to Moscow.

@Renauda ... your thoughts?

[Mik]

It’s delusional.

[Wim]

@Mik Sheer madness.

[Renauda]

@Axtremus said in The Ukraine war thread:

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/21/world/europe/ukraine-russia-us-peace-plan.html?unlocked_article_code=1.208.qP_m.hyCR3PeKDQ8T

The 28-point proposal [from the USA] favors Russia in pivotal aspects, including requiring Ukraine to cede territory and cap the size of its postwar army, while offering financial and geopolitical incentives to Moscow.

@Renauda ... your thoughts?

I don’t think there’s much in it that I didn’t already anticipate in one form or another. It certainly rewards Putin’s unprovoked aggression of the past eleven years against Ukraine. It also gives Putin the time and opportunity he needs in order to finish off the country once and for all at a future date of his choosing. Think of it as a 21 century version of the Ribbentrop Molotov pact. It is not a lasting or just peace for Ukraine but rather a temporary non aggression pact between Russia and the US. It is nothing more than an armistice on Moscow’s maximalist terms that no one outside of the Kremlin or the Oval Office can like or trust.

In the meantime, here is a link to Lawrence Friedman’s excellent analysis of what we know:

https://open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/the-witkoff-dmitriev-peace-plan-annotated?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email