The Ukraine war thread

[Mik]

Not a cheery article. I can't help but wonder where we would be if the west had supported Ukraine more whole-heartedly. All for using the frozen Russian assets.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/zelensky-is-losing-touch-with-reality/ar-AA1QGvyu

[Renauda]

@Mik

Not cheery but as one observer I read pointed out:

To be clear, the fact Ukraine’s investigators — and its raucous free press — are absolutely going to town on elites is itself evidence of a living, breathing (if coughing) democracy worth defending. One need only glance over the border to recall the alternative.

Can anyone send us the link to Russia’s credible investigation after the Panama Papers exposed Putin’s billions? Or how his best friend (Roldugin) earned billions playing a cello? (dude must be awesome). Or why the guy who made a two-hour documentary on Putin’s $1.4 billion Black Sea mega-palace ended up dead in a Putin prison?

The absence of scandal in an autocracy is often just a symptom of its silent, dehumanising condition. And inversely (if uncomfortably), the presence of scandal in a democracy often just reflects the messy but sacred human agency underneath. And that’s worth fighting for, everywhere, every time.

[Mik]

Good observation.

[Renauda]

@Mik

I thought so as well.

I’m the meantime, I have nothing to say about the past 24 hrs of hearsay surrounding Moscow’s and Dim Philby’s (Witkoff the dummkopf) latest terms of unconditional surrender being laid out before the embattled Ukrainian nation.

[Mik]

Oh, the cash for land, but you really still own it? Absurd to the point of surreal.

[Renauda]

Surreal is right. I really cannot comprehend how the US could even table the alleged terms for the Ukranians’ consideration.

[Mik]

He's just throwing shit against the wall to see if anything sticks.

[Renauda]

I don’t believe that for a minute. War diplomacy is not a jam session to see what sticks to the wall.

[Mik]

Normally, no, it isn't. but we're pretty short on normal here. I don't think Trump can conceive of someone NOT wanting to make a deal.

[Renauda]

You may be right… after all, Trump still thinks Putin is his trusted friend.

[Mik]

I don’t think he believes it, he just tries to sell it. With normal humans it may have value, but Putin is not by any means a normal human.

[Renauda]

While he’s trying to sell it (or something to whom, no one knows for certain), Putin is slowly drowning him in a spoonful of water.

[Mik]

Indeed. Why should he quit? He still has at least a tenuous hold on Russia and in a war of attrition he will probably win. Not a bad approach if you don't care how many Russians you lose.

[Renauda]

With Putin, it is never about the mass expenditure of human capital. In fact I am sure he adheres religiously to Stalin’s alleged quote:

"A single death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic.”

[Mik]

Those who forget history....

(applies to all parties)

[Axtremus]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/21/world/europe/ukraine-russia-us-peace-plan.html?unlocked_article_code=1.208.qP_m.hyCR3PeKDQ8T

The 28-point proposal [from the USA] favors Russia in pivotal aspects, including requiring Ukraine to cede territory and cap the size of its postwar army, while offering financial and geopolitical incentives to Moscow.

@Renauda ... your thoughts?

[Mik]

It’s delusional.

[Wim]

@Mik Sheer madness.

[Renauda]

@Axtremus said in The Ukraine war thread:

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/21/world/europe/ukraine-russia-us-peace-plan.html?unlocked_article_code=1.208.qP_m.hyCR3PeKDQ8T

The 28-point proposal [from the USA] favors Russia in pivotal aspects, including requiring Ukraine to cede territory and cap the size of its postwar army, while offering financial and geopolitical incentives to Moscow.

@Renauda ... your thoughts?

I don’t think there’s much in it that I didn’t already anticipate in one form or another. It certainly rewards Putin’s unprovoked aggression of the past eleven years against Ukraine. It also gives Putin the time and opportunity he needs in order to finish off the country once and for all at a future date of his choosing. Think of it as a 21 century version of the Ribbentrop Molotov pact. It is not a lasting or just peace for Ukraine but rather a temporary non aggression pact between Russia and the US. It is nothing more than an armistice on Moscow’s maximalist terms that no one outside of the Kremlin or the Oval Office can like or trust.

In the meantime, here is a link to Lawrence Friedman’s excellent analysis of what we know:

https://open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/the-witkoff-dmitriev-peace-plan-annotated?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email