The Ukraine war thread

[Wim]

Putin's power bloc cracking?

https://www.kyivpost.com/videos/64394

[Mik]

Interesting.

[Renauda]

@Wim

Makes sense in so far as Russia is not and never has been a monolith state. It also explains the internal struggle since the dissolution of the USSR between the siloviki (strongmen - security services, military) and the financial/industrial business elites. He correctly identifies Rosneft’s Igor Sechin as more than just associated with the FSB. Back in the 90’s Rosneft was the poor boy in the oil patch a badly managed state owned oil company that could not compete with its privatized competition like LUKOil or Surgutneftegaz. That all changed with the arrival of Putin in the Kremlin and during the course of his first two terms Rosneft came to be among the top three Russian oil companies. By now it is probably the most powerful in the country as in terms of production, refining capacity and lucrative financial assets outside of the oil business internally and abroad.

[Mik]

Not a cheery article. I can't help but wonder where we would be if the west had supported Ukraine more whole-heartedly. All for using the frozen Russian assets.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/zelensky-is-losing-touch-with-reality/ar-AA1QGvyu

[Renauda]

@Mik

Not cheery but as one observer I read pointed out:

To be clear, the fact Ukraine’s investigators — and its raucous free press — are absolutely going to town on elites is itself evidence of a living, breathing (if coughing) democracy worth defending. One need only glance over the border to recall the alternative.

Can anyone send us the link to Russia’s credible investigation after the Panama Papers exposed Putin’s billions? Or how his best friend (Roldugin) earned billions playing a cello? (dude must be awesome). Or why the guy who made a two-hour documentary on Putin’s $1.4 billion Black Sea mega-palace ended up dead in a Putin prison?

The absence of scandal in an autocracy is often just a symptom of its silent, dehumanising condition. And inversely (if uncomfortably), the presence of scandal in a democracy often just reflects the messy but sacred human agency underneath. And that’s worth fighting for, everywhere, every time.

[Mik]

Good observation.

[Renauda]

@Mik

I thought so as well.

I’m the meantime, I have nothing to say about the past 24 hrs of hearsay surrounding Moscow’s and Dim Philby’s (Witkoff the dummkopf) latest terms of unconditional surrender being laid out before the embattled Ukrainian nation.

[Mik]

Oh, the cash for land, but you really still own it? Absurd to the point of surreal.

[Renauda]

Surreal is right. I really cannot comprehend how the US could even table the alleged terms for the Ukranians’ consideration.

[Mik]

He's just throwing shit against the wall to see if anything sticks.

[Renauda]

I don’t believe that for a minute. War diplomacy is not a jam session to see what sticks to the wall.

[Mik]

Normally, no, it isn't. but we're pretty short on normal here. I don't think Trump can conceive of someone NOT wanting to make a deal.

[Renauda]

You may be right… after all, Trump still thinks Putin is his trusted friend.

[Mik]

I don’t think he believes it, he just tries to sell it. With normal humans it may have value, but Putin is not by any means a normal human.

[Renauda]

While he’s trying to sell it (or something to whom, no one knows for certain), Putin is slowly drowning him in a spoonful of water.

[Mik]

Indeed. Why should he quit? He still has at least a tenuous hold on Russia and in a war of attrition he will probably win. Not a bad approach if you don't care how many Russians you lose.