The Ukraine war thread

Tom-K · wrote on 18 Apr 2025, 22:08

" ⁦@marcorubio is currently defining what it means to abandon absolutely every principle one used to hold dear."

I guess that means Rubio is Presidential timber.

Renauda · wrote on 18 Apr 2025, 23:47

The ineptitude of Trump and Witkoff:

https://timothyash.substack.com/p/a-fools-guide-to-putin-and-ukraine

Wim · wrote on 22 Apr 2025, 21:32

Divide et impera:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/04/22/ukraine-russia-rubio-london-crimea-peace-deal/

Renauda · wrote on 22 Apr 2025, 22:22

Posted without comment other than let’s see where this takes things…..

Russian President Vladimir Putin has offered to end the war in Ukraine along the current front lines as part of peace talks with the United States, the Financial Times reported Wednesday, citing multiple sources familiar with the negotiations.

During a meeting in St. Petersburg earlier this month, Putin reportedly told Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff that Moscow could drop its claims to parts of four Ukrainian regions still controlled by Kyiv.

Washington has floated its own proposals for ending the conflict, including recognizing Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and acknowledging its de facto control over occupied areas in Ukraine’s east and south, the FT reported.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/04/22/putin-proposes-ending-invasion-of-ukraine-along-current-front-lines-ft-a88834

Tom-K · 22 Apr 2025, 22:43

I'm OK with that. Not honorable or righteous or perfect. But a lot of less deaths and some reasonable peace all around. And it may give DJT a Novel Peace Prize that he well deserves.

Renauda · T Tom-K 22 Apr 2025, 22:27

@Tom-K

Yeah, It may be the best deal for a cessation of hostilities in the short term. As long as Putin is at the helm in the Kremlin, people must understand it can be nothing more than a tenuous armistice that the Russians will try to circumvent and undermine by any means of subterfuge possible. This will not at all spell the end the of Kremlin’s imperial aspirations in Eastern Europe.

jon-nyc · 23 Apr 2025, 13:46

It strikes me as equivalent to a ceasefire in Gaza but Hamas gets to stay in power.

Renauda · wrote on 23 Apr 2025, 13:46

@jon-nyc

You’re right. US formal recognition of Russian ownership over Crimea and occupied territories sets a dangerous precedent. It also runs counter to established US foreign policy that never recognised the Soviet forced incorporation of the Baltic countries into the USSR. To expect and even demand other NATO member states to follow suit and reward Russia is not only bad foreign policy but is wholly irresponsible as a founding member of the Alliance.

Ultimately it amounts to rewarding aggressor states and lets them off the hook for any accountability for their actions. No credible deterrent to future aggression.

jon-nyc · wrote on 23 Apr 2025, 14:51

Right but if it further enriches the Trump family that seems totally worth it.

jon-nyc · wrote on 23 Apr 2025, 21:57

Peace talks will fail, the administration will blame Ukraine, unilaterally dismantle our sanction regime on Russia, while refusing to sell military gear to Kyiv.

For peace.

jon-nyc · wrote on 24 Apr 2025, 01:36

Three years ago, Sen Rubio co-sponsored an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act to prohibit US recognition of Crimea as part of Russia.

Mik · wrote on 24 Apr 2025, 02:04

It’s just kicking the can down the road in the vain and naive hope that the next Russian president will somehow be better.

Renauda · wrote on 24 Apr 2025, 16:02

Another look at Trump’s plan. Not sure if I agree with how all facts are presented or whether “the peace deal” is a common sense approach. I still do not understand the rationale behind calling it anything other than an armistice agreement and, a tenuous armistice at that, given the political reality on the ground between Russia and Ukraine. It is an “Armistice Agreement” nothing more. Trump is only deluding himself thinking it can be anything other.

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-ukraine-peace-plane/