The Ukraine war thread

[Horace]

@xenon said in The Ukraine war thread:

@Horace said in The Ukraine war thread:

Maybe if Zelensky thinks Trump is full of shit about his threats to withdraw America's support, I could agree with you.

I'm not confident that Trump is full of shit about that, though. I'm surprised if Zelensky is that confident about that. Right now I'm just assuming it was cavalier, a little bit stupid, but hopefully a temporary blip, and water under the bridge. I hope.

What if Trump has already told him in private that he’s gonna pull out. I can completely see him doing that. He’s the one who initiated the afghan pull out. He left the Kurds in the ME. He’s said he wants no more US bases around the world.

I think that is a fanciful and unbelievable hypothetical.

[Jolly]

Trump is the Commander-in-Chief. Like the Roman Centurian in the Bible, soldiers come when he says come and go when he says go. Since he also is the Executive, he also has a large say in when and how funds are spent.

Zelensky and the rest of y'all can howl at the moon, if you choose, but unless Europe does something totally out of character, Ukraine remains a country only with U.S. help.

[xenon]

Everyone is gonna post-hoc rationalize the way they wanna.

I agree with you that this will play well with Trump supporters, because they couldn’t care less about Ukraine.

[Horace]

@xenon said in The Ukraine war thread:

Everyone is gonna post-hoc rationalize the way they wanna.

I agree with you that this will play well with Trump supporters, because they couldn’t care less about Ukraine.

To be clear, you think there is a categorical difference between you and Trump supporters, in that you have compassion for beset upon other countries, while they don't? And your compassion leads you unerringly to the truth that America should deploy its military to correct such unfair situations in the world?

[Doctor Phibes]

@Horace said in The Ukraine war thread:

@Doctor-Phibes said in The Ukraine war thread:

@Copper said in The Ukraine war thread:

It must be gut wrenching for some of you guys to go from such a weak president to such a strong president.

Hang in there, you'll grow with his success.

OK, we've found the guy who think Trump looked great. There had to be at least one, I guess.

I predict that thinking Zelensky acted stupidly will be the mainstream viewpoint, outside Trump hating circles.

What I didn't really understand was why they felt the need to have the discussion in front of everybody.

My self-appointed mainstream viewpoint speaking on behalf of the silent majority as I do, is that the person who won that argument was Vladimir Putin.

[Jolly]

@xenon said in The Ukraine war thread:

Everyone is gonna post-hoc rationalize the way they wanna.

I agree with you that this will play well with Trump supporters, because they couldn’t care less about Ukraine.

You don't hold the cards right now - DJT.

And then they cut the meeting short and showed Zelensky the door.

[jon-nyc]

Poor little Marco.

[xenon]

@Horace said in The Ukraine war thread:

@xenon said in The Ukraine war thread:

Everyone is gonna post-hoc rationalize the way they wanna.

I agree with you that this will play well with Trump supporters, because they couldn’t care less about Ukraine.

To be clear, you think there is a categorical difference between you and Trump supporters, in that you have compassion for beset upon other countries, while they don't? And your compassion leads you unerringly to the truth that America should deploy its military to correct such unfair situations in the world?

No - we came up with a system after WW2 where we really took the helm on guiding global geo-politics.

I grew up in that framework.

I have no particular compassion for Ukrainians as humans, as bad as that is to say. Because that would be hypocritical. I don’t really take much time out of my day to think about wars in Africa.

But - I thought I knew the rules of the game. We live in a society. We all live by social rules.

The US payed a lot to be in the position that it’s been in, but it’s also gotten a lot of benefits (this is the best country in the world and many people here don’t appreciate that at all)

This is already getting really wordy. But I liked that social order and America’s place in it. Others don’t and I can respect that. Trump hasn’t outlined any new doctrine clearly about America’s place in the world. I wish he would - because I suspect his ideals aren’t the same as mine.

[xenon]

@Jolly said in The Ukraine war thread:

@xenon said in The Ukraine war thread:

Everyone is gonna post-hoc rationalize the way they wanna.

I agree with you that this will play well with Trump supporters, because they couldn’t care less about Ukraine.

You don't hold the cards right now - DJT.

And then they cut the meeting short and showed Zelensky the door.

That’s news to no one. Who didn’t know that Ukraine can’t take on Russia by itself? Did we need Trump to clarify that arcane knowledge for us? Everyone was gobsmacked they lasted more than 3 days.

[jon-nyc]

@Doctor-Phibes said in The Ukraine war thread

My self-appointed mainstream viewpoint speaking on behalf of the silent majority as I do, is that the person who won that argument was Vladimir Putin.

[jon-nyc]

@Horace said in The Ukraine war thread:

@xenon said in The Ukraine war thread:

Everyone is gonna post-hoc rationalize the way they wanna.

I agree with you that this will play well with Trump supporters, because they couldn’t care less about Ukraine.

To be clear, you think there is a categorical difference between you and Trump supporters, in that you have compassion for beset upon other countries, while they don't?

If we take Vice President BetaFace at his word, then yes.

[Horace]

@xenon said in The Ukraine war thread:

@Horace said in The Ukraine war thread:

@xenon said in The Ukraine war thread:

Everyone is gonna post-hoc rationalize the way they wanna.

I agree with you that this will play well with Trump supporters, because they couldn’t care less about Ukraine.

To be clear, you think there is a categorical difference between you and Trump supporters, in that you have compassion for beset upon other countries, while they don't? And your compassion leads you unerringly to the truth that America should deploy its military to correct such unfair situations in the world?

No - we came up with a system after WW2 where we really took the helm on guiding global geo-politics.

I grew up in that framework.

I have no particular compassion for Ukrainians as humans, as bad as that is to say. Because that would be hypocritical. I don’t really take much time out of my day to think about wars in Africa.

But - I thought I knew the rules of the game. We live in a society. We all live by social rules.

The US payed a lot to be in the position that it’s been in, but it’s also gotten a lot of benefits (this is the best country in the world and many people here don’t appreciate that at all)

This is already getting really wordy. But I liked that social order and America’s place in it. Others don’t and I can respect that. Trump hasn’t outlined any new doctrine clearly about America’s place in the world. I wish he would - because I suspect his ideals aren’t the same as mine.

If nothing else is obvious, I hope that it's at least obvious that there were no clear rules and playbook that America and NATO should have followed here, with nuclear conflict looming as a possible result of any pat virtue answers about thwarting imperialistic aggression.

[jon-nyc]

What part of that argument wouldn’t apply if he invaded Poland? Or Finland? Or Germany?

[xenon]

@Horace said in The Ukraine war thread:

@xenon said in The Ukraine war thread:

@Horace said in The Ukraine war thread:

@xenon said in The Ukraine war thread:

Everyone is gonna post-hoc rationalize the way they wanna.

I agree with you that this will play well with Trump supporters, because they couldn’t care less about Ukraine.

To be clear, you think there is a categorical difference between you and Trump supporters, in that you have compassion for beset upon other countries, while they don't? And your compassion leads you unerringly to the truth that America should deploy its military to correct such unfair situations in the world?

No - we came up with a system after WW2 where we really took the helm on guiding global geo-politics.

I grew up in that framework.

I have no particular compassion for Ukrainians as humans, as bad as that is to say. Because that would be hypocritical. I don’t really take much time out of my day to think about wars in Africa.

But - I thought I knew the rules of the game. We live in a society. We all live by social rules.

The US payed a lot to be in the position that it’s been in, but it’s also gotten a lot of benefits (this is the best country in the world and many people here don’t appreciate that at all)

This is already getting really wordy. But I liked that social order and America’s place in it. Others don’t and I can respect that. Trump hasn’t outlined any new doctrine clearly about America’s place in the world. I wish he would - because I suspect his ideals aren’t the same as mine.

If nothing else is obvious, I hope that it's at least obvious that there were no clear rules and playbook that America and NATO should have followed here, with nuclear conflict looming as a possible result of any pat virtue answers about thwarting imperialistic aggression.

I continue to believe that the only way to actually reduce danger of annihilation in the long term is to have and live up to a set of values that we would like the rest of the world to.

Else it’s just purely power that rules at the end of the day - so many the left was right after all.

I’m realize this is a very Pollyanna POV

[Horace]

The argument you're referring to has the advantage of not positing an obvious playbook. Therefore I don't have to generalize that obvious playbook.

[Horace]

@xenon It's an unactionable point of view, unless you come right out and say, yes, escalate. Which is fine. Just say it, and stop hiding behind the "values" rhetoric.

Then you can have some skin in the game as, inevitably, the world tilts, at least just a little bit, towards nuclear conflict. See how it feels to have some skin in that game. This virtue rhetoric is too easy.

[xenon]

@Horace said in The Ukraine war thread:

@xenon It's an unactionable point of view, unless you come right out and say, yes, escalate. Which is fine. Just say it, and stop hiding behind the "values" rhetoric.

Then you can have some skin in the game as, inevitably, the world tilts, at least just a little bit, towards nuclear conflict. See how it feels to have some skin in that game. This virtue rhetoric is too easy.

What’s the unactionable part? You arm Ukrainians until they no longer want to fight. We’ve been doing that for the last few years.

[Mik]

Skin, certainly, but I think it pretty clear that Putin is not going to start a nuclear war over Ukraine.

[Horace]

@xenon said in The Ukraine war thread:

@Horace said in The Ukraine war thread:

@xenon It's an unactionable point of view, unless you come right out and say, yes, escalate. Which is fine. Just say it, and stop hiding behind the "values" rhetoric.

Then you can have some skin in the game as, inevitably, the world tilts, at least just a little bit, towards nuclear conflict. See how it feels to have some skin in that game. This virtue rhetoric is too easy.

What’s the unactionable part? You arm Ukrainians until they no longer want to fight. We’ve been doing that for the last few years.

Now we're just going in circles. That ends with Russia in Kiev.

[xenon]

@Horace said in The Ukraine war thread:

@xenon said in The Ukraine war thread:

@Horace said in The Ukraine war thread:

@xenon It's an unactionable point of view, unless you come right out and say, yes, escalate. Which is fine. Just say it, and stop hiding behind the "values" rhetoric.

Then you can have some skin in the game as, inevitably, the world tilts, at least just a little bit, towards nuclear conflict. See how it feels to have some skin in that game. This virtue rhetoric is too easy.

What’s the unactionable part? You arm Ukrainians until they no longer want to fight. We’ve been doing that for the last few years.

Now we're just going in circles. That ends with Russia in Kiev.

As a thoroughly depleted husk of itself, militarily. They’re going to end up there anyways if we don’t do anything.

But they’re our top 2 adversary. Isn’t it good for us if they’re weak. Plus they understand the cost of what it took (probably not worth it for them).

Might be half a trillion in the long run, but we spent like $20T on Afghanistan for way worse outcomes than we’ve already got here. I’m willing to chip my taxes in for that.

In the long run everyone can wean themselves off of them economically. Seems better than this.