The Ukraine war thread
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Casualties at the tipping point?
In four weeks of combat, Russia may have lost 25 percent of its initial attacking force. These casualties are not on the scale of World War II but are large compared with the relatively small size of the Russian military today. Although reinforcements and replacements can offset some of these casualties, the loss of trained troops will impair military operations and eventually have a political effect.
Russian losses to date are high. NATO estimates that Russia has lost between 7,000 and 15,000 soldiers. Wounded who cannot rapidly return to duty generally number about twice the number of dead. That would mean that Russia has lost between 21,000 and 45,000 troops in four weeks of conflict. To put that into perspective, Russia reported 14,400 killed through 10 years of war in Afghanistan.
The initial invasion force numbered about 190,000 troops. However, that included militias in the Donbas and security forces (Rosgvardiya) for occupation. Ground combat troops numbered about 140,000. Thus, Russia may have lost about a quarter of its initial combat force.
Russian forces are not large. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union maintained a military of about 3.5 million. That military is long gone. Today, Russia maintains a total military of about 900,000, of which 280,000 are in the army, according to the latest figures from the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
Russia lacks a strong reserve force. In theory, former soldiers could be recalled to service, and Russia is likely doing some of that, but these soldiers receive no training or follow-up after their active service. Russia has tried to create reserve forces like those in NATO, where reservists are organized into units that train regularly, but such efforts have not made much headway.
To put the Russian force into perspective, the United States has an active-duty force of 1.3 million and organized, trained reserves of 800,000. Thus, the United States has about twice the trained personnel that Russia does.
To further put the Russian force into perspective, the United States sent about 540,000 troops to Saudi Arabia in 1991 to liberate Kuwait from Iraq. Total coalition forces numbered about 750,000. Russia is conducting this invasion on a shoestring.
Commentators suspect that Putin is not getting objective advice about the war and thus may not fully appreciate the difficulty his forces are in. This is a common problem in authoritarian regimes where officials do not want to bring bad news to an all-powerful leader. However, eventually, battlefield realities will assert themselves. Likely a group of generals will agree among themselves that Putin must be made aware of battlefield circumstances before the army breaks from continuing casualties, physical exhaustion, dwindling supplies and munitions, and sinking morale. Bringing that message forward may be the push that convinces Putin to get serious about negotiations.
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Did Ukraine hit the missile frigate?
https://dumskaya.net/news/ukrainskie-zashchitniki-povredili-rossiyskiy-fre-162480/
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“I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill
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@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
Good. Arm the Ukrainians to the teeth and don't give Putin an inch of territory as a consolation prize.
Absolutely.
And The Resident better grab up The Perfumed Princes and make sure our production lines are replacing what we give the Ukranians.
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Germany finds proof of massacre:
DER SPIEGEL has learned that the BND intercepted Russian military radio traffic in which the murder of civilians in Bucha was discussed. Some of the intercepted radio traffic can apparently be directly linked to dead bodies that have been photographed in Bucha.
Following the withdrawal of the Russian military from the town over the weekend, a mass grave was discovered as well as the bodies of several dozen dead civilians left lying on the streets. The hands of some of the victims had been tied, while other bodies showed signs of torture. Numerous women and children are also reportedly among the victims.
The BND material also apparently provides evidence that members of the Russian mercenary unit called the Wagner Group played a leading role in the atrocities. The group is known to have perpetrated similar atrocities in Syria.
Eyewitnesses recently reported that the occupying force in Bucha was initially made up of "young soldiers." Once they were replaced by other units, the witnesses said, the attacks on civilians grew more frequent. Some eyewitnesses have said that Chechen units were in the town. The accounts raise the question as to whether this progression was part of the occupation plan.
The radio traffic intercepted by the BND makes it seem as though the atrocities perpetrated on civilians in Bucha were neither random acts nor the product of individual soldiers who got out of hand. Rather, say sources familiar with the audio, the material suggests that the troops spoke of the atrocities as though they were simply discussing their everyday lives.
That, say sources familiar with the audio, indicates that the murder of civilians has become a standard element of Russian military activity, potentially even part of a broader strategy. The intention is that of spreading fear among the civilian population and thus reducing the will to resist.
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This is insane. I don't understand what Russia hopes to gain by this behaviour.
Proud supporter of Plan 2525. Everything you think, do and say will be in the pill you took today.
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@Doctor-Phibes said in The Ukraine war thread:
This is insane. I don't understand what Russia hopes to gain by this behaviour.
As @Renauda said, early in the conflict, there seem to be three groups of people in Russia.
- Those older than 60, who understand what's happening
- Those younger than 25, who buy everything hook, line and sinker.
- Those in the middle who are undecided.
I wonder, now being 6 weeks into this, how groups 2 and 3 are reacting. Surely, they're seeing that the entire planet is (almost) united in the condemnation of Russia. Are the sanctions beginning to have an effect on Joe Vodka?
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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@George-K said in The Ukraine war thread:
@Doctor-Phibes said in The Ukraine war thread:
This is insane. I don't understand what Russia hopes to gain by this behaviour.
As @Renauda said, early in the conflict, there seem to be three groups of people in Russia.
- Those older than 60, who understand what's happening
- Those younger than 25, who buy everything hook, line and sinker.
- Those in the middle who are undecided.
I wonder, now being 6 weeks into this, how groups 2 and 3 are reacting. Surely, they're seeing that the entire planet is (almost) united in the condemnation of Russia. Are the sanctions beginning to have an effect on Joe Vodka?
I've mentioned I look at the Twitter account of Sergey Karjakin - he's a very strong chess player who challenged for the World Championship in 2016, so you've got to assume he's moderately smart. He's 32, and according to his Tweets has completely bought into what he's being told by the Putin regime, to the point where he's being really quite offensive. So, either he's morally bankrupt, or he actually believes the rubbish he posts. He's been banned from playing internationally for 6 months, so it's not like he's gaining anything from this, except possibly political capital at home. Most of the other Russian players posted something negative about the war, and then pretty much fell completely silent, for obvious reasons.
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@George-K said in The Ukraine war thread:
@Doctor-Phibes said in The Ukraine war thread:
This is insane. I don't understand what Russia hopes to gain by this behaviour.
As @Renauda said, early in the conflict, there seem to be three groups of people in Russia.
- Those older than 60, who understand what's happening
- Those younger than 25, who buy everything hook, line and sinker.
- Those in the middle who are undecided.
I wonder, now being 6 weeks into this, how groups 2 and 3 are reacting. Surely, they're seeing that the entire planet is (almost) united in the condemnation of Russia. Are the sanctions beginning to have an effect on Joe Vodka?
From what I can tell, Putin’s domestic propaganda machine is winning over the previously undecided population. They are feeling the effects of the sanctions; exponential inflation coupled with shortages. For the elderly relying on state pensions it is feeling like the 1990’s all over again - a bag of dog kibble = one month’s pension. The population truly believes it is entirely the US and EU that has brought about the need for Russia to launch this military action to “denazify” Ukraine and confront head on, Western totalitarianism.
And no, they do not see practically the entire planet united against them. Only those morally depraved states beholden to the US.
“Little by little I am learning the art of being quite content by doing very little slowly” ~ Lionel Hardcastle
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@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
@George-K said in The Ukraine war thread:
@Doctor-Phibes said in The Ukraine war thread:
This is insane. I don't understand what Russia hopes to gain by this behaviour.
As @Renauda said, early in the conflict, there seem to be three groups of people in Russia.
- Those older than 60, who understand what's happening
- Those younger than 25, who buy everything hook, line and sinker.
- Those in the middle who are undecided.
I wonder, now being 6 weeks into this, how groups 2 and 3 are reacting. Surely, they're seeing that the entire planet is (almost) united in the condemnation of Russia. Are the sanctions beginning to have an effect on Joe Vodka?
From what I can tell, Putin’s domestic propaganda machine is winning over the previously undecided population. They are feeling the effects of the sanctions; exponential inflation coupled with shortages. For the elderly relying on state pensions it is feeling like the 1990’s all over again - a bag of dog kibble = one month’s pension. The population truly believes it is entirely the US and EU that has brought about the need for Russia to launch this military action to “denazify” Ukraine and confront head on, Western totalitarianism.
And no, they do not see practically the entire planet united against them. Only those morally depraved states beholden to the US.
So interesting. But it's not too hard to see how that works. They just flip the script back onto the US and say "yeah, like your hands are so clean? Look what you did in Iraq, Libya, etc."
Then it gets into a matter of degrees, but the moral waters are already muddy.
I think I remember Trump making a similar argument when pushed about the atrocities of other countries "you think our country is so innocent?"
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@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
The population truly believes it is entirely the US and EU that has brought about the need for Russia to launch this military action to “denazify” Ukraine and confront head on, Western totalitarianism.
And no, they do not see practically the entire planet united against them. Only those morally depraved states beholden to the US.
They would do well as members of BLM.
